ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs XOM a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Strong business, constructive setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is XOM a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) reads WAIT for a new position and TRIM for an existing one (Signal Strength: 3/7 (last fired 2026-09-18, 7d ago)). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 20.7, Revenue Growth: +44.1%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 49). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $165.65 before adding exposure.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open XOM Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on XOM stock today?
- Reward:risk: 0.42:1 to the analyst target $163.70, against a stop at $153.17.
- Model timing: GREEN · BULLISH, WATCHING FOR ENTRY · EXTENDED.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x ATR stop sits at $153.17, 4.6% below the current $160.59.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +44.1% YoY with a 15.9% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 13.4x.
- Wall Street: average target $163.70 (+1.9%) from 10 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $158.79 (-1.1%), nearest resistance $165.65 (+3.2%).
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does XOM carry this rating?
XOM carries a WAIT rating because the underlying business is solid (Investment Quality 70/100) and relative strength is positive versus the S&P 500, but trend strength is still emerging (ADX 20) and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 3/7). A breakout above $165.65 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $158.79 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on XOM?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: TRIM — Only 0.42:1 of reward left against the stop — the remaining upside no longer pays for the risk.
If you don't: WAIT — Reward:risk is 0.42:1 here. It improves to 1.06:1 at $155.86.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$160.59
Buy Stop Loss
$153.17
Distance: 5%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$156.88
Distance: 2%
Hybrid 1.00x
ATR 14 Day
$3.71
Volatility
ADX Strength
15.8
Weak/No Trend
Position up +31% - Adaptive strategy adjusts for momentum
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could XOM stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for XOM over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 45%)
If XOM reclaims the $165.65 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $168.48. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Energy.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 37%)
Failure to hold the $158.79 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $152.77 liquidity zone (-4.9% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 16 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $158.79 and $165.65 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying XOM now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much XOM should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy XOM now, and should you hold it if you already own it?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Price vs. its 50-day trend — CONSTRUCTIVE
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on XOM right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $163.70; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $153.17. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
Analyst figures are the consensus mean of the panel this report tracks. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere — including on our own live scanner — can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
A second analyst panel reads XOM differently, and the two readings are materially different. The panel above averages $163.70 (0.42:1); an independent panel averages $172.55 (1.61:1). Neither is the correction of the other — they poll different analysts. Treat the reward leg as a range, not a point.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model entry held since 2026-01-05 · +30.7% · against its own $118.77 stop, to TODAY's target — a fact, not a recommendation | $122.89 | $4.12 | $40.81 | 9.91:1 |
| Today at $160.59 | $160.59 | $7.42 | $3.11 | 0.42:1 |
| Accumulation anchor nearest level worth waiting for · zone $155.86–$158.98 · stop $148.44 | $155.86 | $7.42 | $7.84 | 1.06:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs XOM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does XOM's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is GREEN · BULLISH, WATCHING FOR ENTRY · EXTENDED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Strong on both. XOM pairs a solid business with a constructive setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving XOM's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +113% YoY | +18 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 13.4, PEG 0.0 | +15 | |
| Revenue Growth +44% YoY | +10 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 20 | +8 | |
| Relative Strength +5.1% vs benchmarks (3M) | +5 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +3 | |
| Profitability Margin 9%, ROE 13% | +1 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.3% of price | -1 | |
| Momentum RSI 54, MACD bearish | -5 |
Net Factor Score: +54 — Strongly bullish factor profile. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs XOM outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +0.6% | +12.3% | -21.8% |
| Energy (XLE) | +1.6% | +2.5% | -3.8% |
| Oil & Gas E&P (XOP) | +2.7% | +0.6% | -0.4% |
XOM 3-month return: +18.4% · Leadership: BROAD LEADER — outperforming the market, its sector, and peers
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability XOM stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Energy (14 peers)Is XOM cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 14 Energy peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ XOM vs. Its Closest PeersHow does XOM compare to CVX and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Oil & Gas Integrated from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files XOM beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | XOM (this report) | CVX | NFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $660.3B | $401.0B | $7.5B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +44.1% | +53.5% | +1.1% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 13.4x | 12.5x | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | — | — |
| Operating Margin | 15.9% | 21.9% | 40.1% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 15.8 | 24.0 | — |
CVX (Chevron Corporation — closest business match), NFG (National Fuel Gas Company). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could XOM go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $163.70 | High Target: | $185.00 |
| Current Price: | $160.59 | Low Target: | $90.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +1.9% | Number of Analysts: | 25 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded XOM recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freedom Broker | UPGRADE | Sell → Hold | Aug 04, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | DOWNGRADE | Buy → Neutral | Jul 28, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on XOM?
Overall Score: 3.3/10 - Slightly Bullish
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- With Gas at $4.48 a Gallon, Here's How Much ExxonMobil Stock You Need to Buy to Fill Up Your Tank
Motley Fool • Sep 26ExxonMobil dividends could help offset the rising price of fuel....
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/26/with-gas-at-448-a-... - Top Analyst Reports for ExxonMobil, Automatic Data Processing & Cadence
Zacks • Sep 25ExxonMobil, ADP and Cadence highlight today's analyst reports, with growth drivers, market risks and strategic moves shaping their outlooks....
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/top-analys...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $122.89 on 2026-01-05
Confluence: 6/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $153.17
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
58%
Past Total Return
+69.2%
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Avg Trade
+14.9%
Trades
12
Adaptive Strategy
OPEN POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $155.88 on 2026-07-23
Confluence: none in the 30d before entry
Stop Loss: $155.02
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
55%
Past Total Return
+61.7%
Max Drawdown
-13.5%
Avg Trade
+7.5%
Trades
20
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for XOM stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $160.59 | Market Cap | $660.3B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 58.3% (12 trades) | Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 13.4x |
| Past Total Return | +69.2% | Analyst Target | $163.70 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 49 / 16 | Upside to Target | +1.9% |
| MACD Signal | Bullish | Revenue Growth | +44.1% |
| Profit Factor | 3.84 | Institutional Own. | 67.2% |
| Position Entry | 2026-01-05 @ $122.89 | Analyst Ratings | 10 Buy / 15 Hold / 0 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | +30.7% |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the XOM rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT entry rating to XOM based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (49) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 16 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($3.71) indicates moderate volatility (2.3% of price), suggesting potential moves of 4.6%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 58% of the time across 12 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +14.9% per trade.
Firing now — EMA Trend Alignment (2) · High Volume (>1.5×) (1).
Not firing: Valid Breakout, RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 3/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 3/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✓ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why XOM can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 3/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ XOM — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $160.59 | Volume | 11.0M |
| Avg Volume | 14.6M | Beta | 0.17 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $161.75 | EMA 50 | $158.49 |
| EMA 200 | $145.52 | VWAP | $160.72 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 15.79 | Distance from EMA 20 | -0.7% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 48.95 | MACD | 0.63 |
| MACD Signal | 1.38 | MACD Histogram | -0.74 |
| Stochastic %K | 39.67 | Stochastic %D | 31.91 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $168.48 | Bollinger Middle | $162.48 |
| Bollinger Lower | $156.48 | Band Position | 34.2% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $3.71 | ATR as % of price | 2.3% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 3/7 (last fired 2026-09-18, 7d ago) | Trade Signal | None in the last 30 days |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $660.3B | Revenue | $361.1B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 13.4 | Revenue Growth | +44.1% |
| Trailing P/E | 20.7 | Gross Margin | 29.8% |
| Price/Sales | 1.83 | Operating Margin | 15.9% |
| Price/Book | 2.55 | Profit Margin | 9.1% |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | ROE | 12.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $698.8B | Free Cash Flow | $20.7B |
| EPS (Forward) | $11.99 | Dividend Yield | 2.57% |
| 52-Week Range | $110.39 - $176.41 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | $122.89 | +30.67% | $118.77 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-03-11 | $29.97 | $49.96 | +66.71% | Win |
| 2021-04-21 | 2021-06-25 | $45.63 | $53.46 | +17.15% | Win |
| 2021-08-19 | 2023-03-14 | $44.25 | $95.29 | +115.33% | Win |
| 2023-04-05 | 2023-05-05 | $104.24 | $96.84 | -7.10% | Loss |
| 2023-09-27 | 2023-10-09 | $108.92 | $100.51 | -7.72% | Loss |
| 2023-10-11 | 2023-10-24 | $96.50 | $98.22 | +1.78% | Win |
| 2024-02-15 | 2024-12-06 | $95.74 | $107.39 | +12.18% | Win |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-09 | $98.21 | $100.94 | +2.78% | Win |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-08-07 | $108.30 | $102.02 | -5.81% | Loss |
| 2025-08-27 | 2025-09-26 | $109.57 | $113.92 | +3.96% | Win |
Summary: 12 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
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