📌 Is XOM a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is currently rated WAIT (Signal Strength: 0/7). The long-term fundamentals are stable (P/E: 24.3, Revenue Growth: +2.6%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 37). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $156.08 before adding exposure.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open XOM Analysis ↗
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT rating to XOM based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 54% of the time over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +13.5% per trade.
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for XOM over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 20%)
If XOM reclaims the $156.08 resistance level (Bollinger Upper), algorithmic targets shift to $166.27. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Energy.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 50%)
Failure to hold the $144.24 support zone (Bollinger Lower) triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $139.78 liquidity zone (-3.3% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 16 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $144.24 and $156.08 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $144.57 | Market Cap | $599.2B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 53.8% | Forward P/E | 14.2x |
| Past Total Return | +65.2% | Analyst Target | $166.27 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 37 / 16 | Upside to Target | +15.0% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +2.6% |
| Profit Factor | 4.29 | Institutional Own. | 70.7% |
| Position Entry | 2026-01-05 @ $124.53 | Analyst Ratings | 13 Buy / 11 Hold / 2 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | +16.1% |
MAINTAIN POSITION - Current position showing 16.1% unrealized gain. Use intelligent stop loss strategy below.
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Hybrid adapts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Fixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $124.53 on 2026-01-05
Confluence: 6.0
Stop Loss: $135.65
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
54%
Past Total Return
+65.2%
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Avg Trade
+13.5%
Trades
13
Adaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $124.53 on 2026-01-05
Confluence: 6.0
Stop Loss: $137.88
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
64%
Past Total Return
+62.0%
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Avg Trade
+14.7%
Trades
11
Current Price
$144.57
Buy Stop Loss
$135.65
Distance: 6%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$137.88
Distance: 5%
Hybrid 1.50x
ATR 14 Day
$4.46
Volatility
ADX Strength
16.3
Weak/No Trend
Position up +16% - Adaptive strategy adjusts for momentum
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| EMA 20 | $151.32 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | $151.16 | Bearish |
| RSI (14) | 37.1 | Weak - potential support |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 16.3 | Weak/No trend (<20) |
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | REITERATED | Sector Perform → Sector Perform | May 05, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | DOWNGRADE | Outperform → Peer Perform | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | UPGRADE | Underperform → Neutral | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Average Target: | $166.27 | High Target: | $195.00 |
| Current Price: | $144.57 | Low Target: | $123.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +15.0% | Number of Analysts: | 22 |
Based on backtest performance (Win Rate: 53.8%, Avg Return: +13.5%) and analyst consensus (Target: $166.27, +15.0% upside), an OVERWEIGHT exposure may be considered. Risk/Reward ratio of 1.00:1 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns. Current open position shows +16.1% unrealized gain.
Exxon Mobil Corporation operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Integrated). Current valuation of 14.2x forward P/E reflects discounted multiples relative to growth prospects. Operating margin of 6.4% shows moderate profitability.
Fundamental Outlook: Challenging - Significant earnings headwinds requiring restructuring
Overall Score: 1.7/10 - Slightly Bullish
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The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $599.2B |
| P/E Ratio (Forward) | 14.2 |
| EPS (Forward) | $10.22 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.85% |
| 52-Week Range | $101.19 - $176.41 |
| Beta | 0.18 |
| Avg Volume | 21.7M |
Comprehensive Technical Data for Quantitative Analysis
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Price | $144.57 | Volume | 19.5M |
| EMA 20 | $151.32 | EMA 50 | $151.16 |
| EMA 200 | $133.62 | Current Price | $144.57 |
| RSI (14) | 37.07 | MACD | -1.704 |
| MACD Signal | -1.283 | MACD Histogram | -0.421 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 16.32 | Volatility (ATR 14) | $4.46 |
| Bollinger Upper | $156.08 | Bollinger Lower | $144.24 |
| Stochastic %K | 25.09 | Stochastic %D | 51.96 |
| VWAP | $145.00 | Bollinger Middle | $150.16 |
| Confluence Score | 0/7 | Trade Signal | NONE |
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $599.2B | Revenue | $326.0B |
| Forward P/E | 14.2 | Revenue Growth | +2.6% |
| Trailing P/E | 24.3 | Gross Margin | 29.8% |
| Price/Sales | 1.84 | Operating Margin | 6.4% |
| Price/Book | 2.33 | Profit Margin | 7.8% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.32 | ROE | 9.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $645.1B | Free Cash Flow | $11.6B |
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | $124.53 | +16.09% | $120.35 |
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-03-11 | $30.37 | $50.62 | +66.71% | Win |
| 2021-04-21 | 2021-06-25 | $46.24 | $54.17 | +17.15% | Win |
| 2021-08-19 | 2023-03-14 | $44.84 | $96.56 | +115.33% | Win |
| 2023-04-05 | 2023-05-05 | $105.63 | $98.13 | -7.10% | Loss |
| 2023-09-27 | 2023-10-09 | $110.37 | $101.85 | -7.72% | Loss |
| 2023-10-11 | 2023-10-24 | $97.78 | $99.52 | +1.78% | Win |
| 2024-02-15 | 2024-12-06 | $97.01 | $108.82 | +12.18% | Win |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-09 | $99.52 | $102.29 | +2.78% | Win |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-08-07 | $109.75 | $103.37 | -5.81% | Loss |
| 2025-08-27 | 2025-09-26 | $111.03 | $115.43 | +3.96% | Win |
Summary: 13 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis based on historical data through 2026-05-08. Fundamental data auto-fetched from Yahoo Finance. Please conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Report Generated: May 09, 2026 at 12:46 PM
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