📌 Is XOM a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is currently rated HOLD (Signal Strength: 3/7). The long-term fundamentals are challenged (P/E: 25.5, Revenue Growth: -1.3%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 76). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $169.13 before adding exposure.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open XOM Analysis ↗
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a HOLD rating to XOM based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 45% of the time over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +13.0% per trade.
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for XOM over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 37%)
If XOM reclaims the $169.13 resistance level (Bollinger Upper), algorithmic targets shift to $169.13. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Energy.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 43%)
Failure to hold the $144.40 support zone (Bollinger Lower) triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $140.21 liquidity zone (-18.0% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 35 (strong trend), momentum suggests a directional move is imminent between $144.40 and $169.13 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $170.99 | Market Cap | $712.5B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 45.5% | Forward P/E | 18.6x |
| Past Total Return | +47.1% | Analyst Target | $156.38 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 76 / 35 | Upside to Target | -8.5% |
| MACD Signal | Bullish | Revenue Growth | -1.3% |
| Profit Factor | 5.09 | Institutional Own. | 67.5% |
| Position Entry | 2025-08-27 @ $111.03 | Analyst Ratings | 13 Buy / 14 Hold / 0 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | +54.0% |
MAINTAIN POSITION - Current position showing 54.0% unrealized gain. Use intelligent stop loss strategy below.
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Hybrid adapts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Fixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $111.03 on 2025-08-27
Confluence: nan
Stop Loss: $162.61
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
45%
Past Total Return
+47.1%
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Avg Trade
+13.0%
Trades
11
Adaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $111.03 on 2025-08-27
Confluence: nan
Stop Loss: $164.70
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
50%
Past Total Return
+27.6%
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Avg Trade
+5.4%
Trades
18
Current Price
$170.99
Buy Stop Loss
$162.61
Distance: 5%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$166.80
Distance: 2%
Hybrid 1.00x
ATR 14 Day
$4.19
Volatility
ADX Strength
35.4
Strong trend
Position up +54% - Adaptive strategy adjusts for momentum
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| EMA 20 | $158.14 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | $148.66 | Bullish |
| RSI (14) | 76.4 | Overbought - potential reversal |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 35.4 | Strong trend (25-50) |
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freedom Capital Markets | DOWNGRADE | Hold → Sell | Jan 06, 2026 |
| Average Target: | $156.38 | High Target: | $186.00 |
| Current Price: | $170.99 | Low Target: | $123.00 |
| Upside to Average: | -8.5% | Number of Analysts: | 24 |
Based on backtest performance (Win Rate: 45.5%, Avg Return: +13.0%) and analyst consensus (Target: $156.38, -8.5% upside), an UNDERWEIGHT exposure may be considered. Risk/Reward ratio of 0.57:1 suggests unfavorable risk-adjusted returns. Current open position shows +54.0% unrealized gain.
Exxon Mobil Corporation operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Integrated). Current valuation of 18.6x forward P/E reflects reasonable multiples relative to growth prospects. Operating margin of 9.5% shows moderate profitability.
Fundamental Outlook: Neutral - Mixed signals with focus on execution and margin improvement
Overall Score: -0.3/10 - Neutral
Supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could create a windfall for this leading producer....
Investing.com -- The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is entering a critical decision window that will determine whether the region mov...
On March 27, 2026, energy shares gained while tech heavyweights dragged major U.S. benchmarks lower....
Energy stocks were higher late Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising 1.3% and t...
Rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions boost XOM's outlook as low-cost assets and production growth drive earnings potential....
The news sentiment is neutral, indicating balanced coverage without clear directional bias. This suggests market participants are waiting for catalysts or clearer signals. Monitor for changes in sentiment that could indicate emerging trends.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $712.5B |
| P/E Ratio (Forward) | 18.6 |
| EPS (Forward) | $9.21 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.41% |
| 52-Week Range | $97.80 - $171.23 |
| Beta | 0.35 |
| Avg Volume | 21.8M |
Comprehensive Technical Data for Quantitative Analysis
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Price | $170.99 | Volume | 30.3M |
| EMA 20 | $158.14 | EMA 50 | $148.66 |
| EMA 200 | $127.00 | Current Price | $170.99 |
| RSI (14) | 76.35 | MACD | 5.330 |
| MACD Signal | 4.399 | MACD Histogram | 0.931 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 35.37 | Volatility (ATR 14) | $4.19 |
| Bollinger Upper | $169.13 | Bollinger Lower | $144.40 |
| Stochastic %K | 89.12 | Stochastic %D | 87.15 |
| VWAP | $169.01 | Bollinger Middle | $156.76 |
| Confluence Score | 3/7 | Trade Signal | NONE |
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $712.5B | Revenue | $323.9B |
| Forward P/E | 18.6 | Revenue Growth | -1.3% |
| Trailing P/E | 25.5 | Gross Margin | 31.0% |
| Price/Sales | 2.20 | Operating Margin | 9.5% |
| Price/Book | 2.75 | Profit Margin | 8.9% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.16 | ROE | 11.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $759.5B | Free Cash Flow | $12.2B |
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-27 | $111.03 | +54.00% | $107.50 |
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-06-04 | 2020-06-29 | $38.17 | $34.46 | -9.74% | Loss |
| 2020-07-31 | 2020-09-11 | $32.71 | $29.25 | -10.58% | Loss |
| 2020-11-19 | 2021-07-20 | $30.37 | $46.88 | +54.38% | Win |
| 2021-08-19 | 2023-03-14 | $44.84 | $96.56 | +115.33% | Win |
| 2023-04-05 | 2023-05-05 | $105.63 | $98.13 | -7.10% | Loss |
| 2023-09-27 | 2023-10-09 | $110.37 | $101.85 | -7.72% | Loss |
| 2023-10-11 | 2023-10-24 | $97.78 | $99.52 | +1.78% | Win |
| 2024-02-15 | 2024-12-06 | $97.01 | $108.82 | +12.18% | Win |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-09 | $99.52 | $102.29 | +2.78% | Win |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-08-07 | $109.75 | $103.37 | -5.81% | Loss |
Summary: 11 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis based on historical data through 2026-03-27. Fundamental data auto-fetched from Yahoo Finance. Please conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Report Generated: March 29, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Ultra Stock Analysis Pro - Comprehensive Technical & Fundamental Analysis