Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs TSLA a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Great business, weak setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is TSLA a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is currently rated WAIT FOR SIGNAL (Signal Strength: 3/7 (last fired 2026-07-24, 14d ago)). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 304.2, Revenue Growth: +25.5%), while short-term technicals show a bearish trend (RSI: 41). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $329.57 before adding exposure.
Key takeaways
- Rating & timing: rated WAIT FOR SIGNAL (Signal Strength 3/7), model timing RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $14.82 below entry ($29.64–$44.46).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +25.5% YoY with a 1.4% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 148.1x.
- Wall Street: average target $396.62 (+20.7%) from 23 Buy, 18 Hold, 7 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $297.38 (-9.5%), nearest resistance $329.57 (+0.3%).
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open TSLA Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on TSLA stock today?
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does TSLA carry this rating?
TSLA carries a WAIT rating because the underlying business is solid (Investment Quality 59/100), but the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 19), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 3/7). A breakout above $329.57 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $297.38 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on TSLA?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
WAIT FOR ENTRY — monitor for a Signal Strength of 5+, then size the position against a stop set 2-3x the 14-day ATR below entry.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$328.58
Buy Stop Loss
$298.94
Distance: 9%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$298.94
Distance: 9%
Hybrid 2.00x
ATR 14 Day
$14.82
Volatility
ADX Strength
30.6
Strong trend
New position - Standard stop loss levels
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could TSLA stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for TSLA over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 47%)
If TSLA reclaims the $329.57 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $415.55. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Cyclical.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 36%)
Failure to hold the $297.38 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $256.29 liquidity zone (-22.0% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 31 (strong trend), momentum suggests a directional move is imminent between $297.38 and $329.57 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying TSLA now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much TSLA should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs TSLA stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does TSLA's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Strong on both. TSLA pairs a solid business with a constructive setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving TSLA's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Momentum RSI 28, MACD bullish | +11 | |
| Revenue Growth +26% YoY | +10 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bearish | -3 | |
| Earnings Growth -3% YoY | -4 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 19 | -5 | |
| Volatility ATR 4.5% of price | -5 | |
| Profitability Margin 4%, ROE 5% | -6 | |
| Relative Strength -21.8% vs benchmarks (3M) | -12 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 148.1, PEG 4.8 | -18 |
Net Factor Score: -32 — Net bearish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs TSLA outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -22.0% | -26.2% | -32.0% |
| Consumer Cyclical (XLY) | -21.8% | -20.4% | -19.7% |
| Autos (CARZ) | -15.9% | -18.8% | -48.0% |
TSLA 3-month return: -20.2% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability TSLA stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Consumer Cyclical (12 peers)Is TSLA cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 12 Consumer Cyclical peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ TSLA vs. Its Closest PeersHow does TSLA compare to RIVN and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Auto Manufacturers from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files TSLA beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | TSLA (this report) | RIVN | HD | MCD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1,297.7B | $23.2B | $354.6B | $195.0B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +25.5% | +27.2% | +4.8% | +3.7% |
| Forward P/E | 148.1x | -9.0x | 22.1x | 19.6x |
| PEG Ratio | 4.81 | — | 2.01 | 2.55 |
| Operating Margin | 1.4% | -50.4% | 11.9% | 46.5% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 30.6 | — | 16.3 | 14.9 |
RIVN (Rivian Automotive, Inc. — closest business match), HD (The Home Depot, Inc.), MCD (McDonald's Corporation). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could TSLA go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $396.62 | High Target: | $600.00 |
| Current Price: | $328.58 | Low Target: | $125.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +20.7% | Number of Analysts: | 40 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded TSLA recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | REITERATED | Hold → Hold | Jul 23, 2026 |
| GLJ Research | REITERATED | Sell → Sell | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Citizens | INITIATED | Market Perform | Jul 09, 2026 |
| GLJ Research | REITERATED | Sell → Sell | Jun 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | UPGRADE | Underweight → Neutral | Jun 05, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Jun 04, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on TSLA?
Overall Score: -2.8/10 - Slightly Bearish
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- Elon Musk's Boring Company Is Raising Money at a $20 Billion Valuation. Here's How His Empire Outside Tesla Is Growing.
Motley Fool • Aug 09The Boring Company's valuation has nearly quadrupled in four years, but what exactly are investors getting?...
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/09/elon-musk-boring-c... - Prediction for Tesla Stock in 3 Years: The Bear Case
Motley Fool • Aug 08Tesla doesn't have to fail for the company's stock to disappoint investors....
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/08/prediction-for-tes...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bearish, reflecting concerns and negative coverage. This suggests caution among market participants. Consider defensive strategies and monitor for potential support levels or reversal signals.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $298.94 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
55%
Past Total Return
+174.1%
Max Drawdown
-35.8%
Avg Trade
+28.0%
Trades
22
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $306.35 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
62%
Past Total Return
+273.5%
Max Drawdown
-15.6%
Avg Trade
+27.0%
Trades
26
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for TSLA stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $328.58 | Market Cap | $1297.7B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 54.5% (22 trades) | Forward P/E | 148.1x |
| Past Total Return | +174.1% | Analyst Target | $396.62 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 41 / 31 | Upside to Target | +20.7% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +25.5% |
| Profit Factor | 4.38 | Institutional Own. | 43.1% |
| Open Position | No open position | Analyst Ratings | 23 Buy / 18 Hold / 7 Sell |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the TSLA rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT rating to TSLA based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (41) is currently in neutral range in 55% of 22 backtested trades.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 31 indicates a strong trend (25-50) supporting directional moves. News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bearish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($14.82) indicates high volatility (4.5% of price), suggesting potential moves of 9.0%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 55% of the time across 22 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +28.0% per trade.
📊 How the Signal Strength score works (and why it can read low in an uptrend)
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 3/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✓ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✓ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✓ |
This is why TSLA can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 3/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ TSLA — Common Questions
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $328.58 | Volume | 39.4M |
| Avg Volume | 45.3M | Beta | 1.83 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $339.99 | EMA 50 | $367.11 |
| EMA 200 | $387.24 | VWAP | $327.85 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 30.56 | Distance from EMA 20 | -3.4% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 41.41 | MACD | -19.76 |
| MACD Signal | -20.78 | MACD Histogram | 1.02 |
| Stochastic %K | 29.30 | Stochastic %D | 27.86 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $415.55 | Bollinger Middle | $343.33 |
| Bollinger Lower | $271.11 | Band Position | 39.8% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $14.82 | ATR as % of price | 4.5% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 3/7 (last fired 2026-07-24, 14d ago) | Trade Signal | None in the last 30 days |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1297.7B | Revenue | $103.6B |
| Forward P/E | 148.1 | Revenue Growth | +25.5% |
| Trailing P/E | 304.2 | Gross Margin | 18.9% |
| Price/Sales | 12.52 | Operating Margin | 1.4% |
| Price/Book | 14.94 | Profit Margin | 3.7% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.81 | ROE | 4.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $1271.0B | Free Cash Flow | $4.8B |
| EPS (Forward) | $2.22 | Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52-Week Range | $297.38 - $498.83 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-17 | 2023-08-18 | $219.22 | $215.49 | -1.70% | Loss |
| 2023-08-31 | 2023-10-25 | $258.08 | $212.42 | -17.69% | Loss |
| 2023-10-31 | 2024-01-12 | $200.84 | $218.89 | +8.99% | Win |
| 2024-02-05 | 2024-02-27 | $181.06 | $199.73 | +10.31% | Win |
| 2024-03-14 | 2024-06-13 | $162.50 | $182.47 | +12.29% | Win |
| 2024-06-17 | 2025-02-13 | $187.44 | $355.94 | +89.90% | Win |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-11-03 | $230.58 | $468.37 | +103.13% | Win |
| 2025-12-15 | 2026-01-21 | $475.31 | $431.44 | -9.23% | Loss |
| 2026-05-11 | 2026-06-11 | $445.00 | $399.15 | -10.30% | Loss |
| 2026-06-26 | 2026-07-29 | $379.71 | $298.32 | -21.43% | Loss |
Summary: 22 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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