Oracle Corporation (ORCL) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs ORCL a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Great business, weak setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is ORCL a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) reads WAIT for a new position (Signal Strength: 4/7 (last fired 2026-09-08, 17d ago)). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 21.5, Revenue Growth: +29.6%), while short-term technicals show a bearish trend (RSI: 41). Traders should watch for a breakout above $139.15 before entering new positions.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open ORCL Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on ORCL stock today?
- Reward:risk: 5.35:1 to the analyst target $213.00, against a stop at $122.91.
- Model timing: RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $7.09 below entry ($14.19–$21.28).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +29.6% YoY with a 35.6% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 16.8x.
- Wall Street: average target $213.00 (+55.4%) from 36 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $120.03 (-12.5%), nearest resistance $139.15 (+1.5%).
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does ORCL carry this rating?
ORCL carries a WAIT rating because valuation and fundamentals remain attractive (Investment Quality 83/100), but the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 16), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 4/7). A breakout above $139.15 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $120.03 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on ORCL?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: the model holds no position.
If you don't: WAIT — Needs a break above $139.15 on rising volume.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$137.10
Buy Stop Loss
$122.91
Distance: 10%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$122.91
Distance: 10%
Hybrid 2.00x
ATR 14 Day
$7.09
Volatility
ADX Strength
13.8
Weak/No Trend
New position - Standard stop loss levels
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could ORCL stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for ORCL over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 57%)
If ORCL reclaims the $139.15 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $213.00. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Technology.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 29%)
Failure to hold the $120.03 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $127.52 liquidity zone (-7.0% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 14 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $120.03 and $139.15 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying ORCL now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much ORCL should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy ORCL now, and should you hold it if you already own it?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BELOW TREND
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on ORCL right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $213.00; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $122.91. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
Analyst figures are the consensus mean of the panel this report tracks. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere — including on our own live scanner — can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
An independent analyst panel averages $237.97 for ORCL, 12% above the figure above. The reading here does not change, but the reward leg is less precise than one number suggests.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today at $137.10 | $137.10 | $14.19 | $75.90 | 5.35:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs ORCL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Oracle Corporation · Technology · Software - Infrastructure. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does ORCL's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Strong business, stretched entry. ORCL scores well on fundamentals but price is extended or lacks a fresh trigger — better-priced entries typically appear on a pullback toward support.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving ORCL's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +55% YoY | +18 | |
| Profitability Margin 26%, ROE 41% | +16 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 16.8, PEG 0.5 | +11 | |
| Revenue Growth +30% YoY | +10 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +2 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 16 | -5 | |
| Momentum RSI 63, MACD bearish | -5 | |
| Volatility ATR 5.2% of price | -6 | |
| Relative Strength -19.0% vs benchmarks (3M) | -12 |
Net Factor Score: +29 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs ORCL outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -8.8% | -13.4% | -23.5% |
| Technology (XLK) | -15.4% | -15.9% | -51.8% |
| Software (IGV) | -11.4% | -27.6% | -36.3% |
ORCL 3-month return: -7.4% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability ORCL stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Software - Infrastructure (16 peers)Is ORCL cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 16 Software - Infrastructure peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ ORCL vs. Its Closest PeersHow does ORCL compare to CRM and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Software - Infrastructure from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files ORCL beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | ORCL (this report) | CRM | PLTR | PANW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $414.6B | $192.6B | $455.8B | $306.5B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +29.6% | +10.8% | +92.8% | +34.5% |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 16.8x | 14.0x | 119.0x | 89.5x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2031E CAGR) | 0.47 | 1.28 | 2.56 | 5.44 |
| Operating Margin | 35.6% | 21.4% | 47.1% | 5.4% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 13.8 | 36.2 | 25.5 | 20.2 |
CRM (Salesforce, Inc. — closest business match), PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.), PANW (Palo Alto Networks, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could ORCL go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $213.00 | High Target: | $325.00 |
| Current Price: | $137.10 | Low Target: | $95.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +55.4% | Number of Analysts: | 44 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded ORCL recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Sep 14, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | REITERATED | Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | REITERATED | Overweight → Overweight | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Citizens | REITERATED | Market Outperform → Market Outperform | Sep 09, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Sep 08, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | REITERATED | Sector Perform → Sector Perform | Sep 04, 2026 |
| CLSA | INITIATED | Hold | Jul 20, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on ORCL?
Overall Score: 2.5/10 - Slightly Bullish
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- Oracle's massive AI bet hides a huge warning investors can't ignore
TheStreet • Sep 28Oracle’s AI growth is surging, but its financing costs tell another story....
Source: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/orcl-oracle-664-b... - Oracle (ORCL) Reports a $664 Billion Backlog. Can AI Growth Outpace its Cash Burn?
Insider Monkey • Sep 28On September 11, 2026, Reuters reported that Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) topped Wall Street estimates for its fiscal first-quarter results and repo...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/oracle-orcl...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $122.91 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
56%
Past Total Return
+63.1%
Max Drawdown
-14.6%
Avg Trade
+5.5%
Trades
25
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $126.46 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
54%
Past Total Return
+65.7%
Max Drawdown
-13.0%
Avg Trade
+5.4%
Trades
26
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for ORCL stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $137.10 | Market Cap | $414.6B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 56.0% (25 trades) | Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 16.8x |
| Past Total Return | +63.1% | Analyst Target | $213.00 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 41 / 14 | Upside to Target | +55.4% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +29.6% |
| Profit Factor | 1.65 | Institutional Own. | 43.6% |
| Open Position | No open position | Analyst Ratings | 36 Buy / 7 Hold / 1 Sell |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the ORCL rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT entry rating to ORCL based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (41) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 14 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($7.09) indicates high volatility (5.2% of price), suggesting potential moves of 10.3%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 56% of the time across 25 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +5.5% per trade.
Firing now — Valid Breakout (3) · High Volume (>1.5×) (1).
Not firing: EMA Trend Alignment, RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 4/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 4/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✓ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✓ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why ORCL can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 4/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ ORCL — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $137.10 | Volume | 23.5M |
| Avg Volume | 33.1M | Beta | 1.73 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $146.34 | EMA 50 | $148.07 |
| EMA 200 | $166.21 | VWAP | $138.30 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 13.77 | Distance from EMA 20 | -6.3% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 40.61 | MACD | -1.22 |
| MACD Signal | 0.34 | MACD Histogram | -1.56 |
| Stochastic %K | 14.52 | Stochastic %D | 21.05 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $162.65 | Bollinger Middle | $148.63 |
| Bollinger Lower | $134.62 | Band Position | 8.8% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $7.09 | ATR as % of price | 5.2% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 4/7 (last fired 2026-09-08, 17d ago) | Trade Signal | SELL — fired 2026-09-15 (10d ago) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $414.6B | Revenue | $71.8B |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 16.8 | Revenue Growth | +29.6% |
| Trailing P/E | 21.5 | Gross Margin | 64.0% |
| Price/Sales | 5.78 | Operating Margin | 35.6% |
| Price/Book | 10.51 | Profit Margin | 26.4% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2031E CAGR) | 0.47 | ROE | 41.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $552.0B | Free Cash Flow | $-45.9B |
| EPS (Forward) | $8.14 | Dividend Yield | 1.46% |
| 52-Week Range | $114.50 - $322.54 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-28 | 2024-10-10 | $134.91 | $172.02 | +27.51% | Win |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-12-09 | $177.74 | $186.77 | +5.08% | Win |
| 2024-12-10 | 2024-12-26 | $174.31 | $168.37 | -3.41% | Loss |
| 2025-01-21 | 2025-03-07 | $169.65 | $152.54 | -10.09% | Loss |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-07-08 | $125.01 | $231.37 | +85.08% | Win |
| 2025-09-10 | 2025-10-01 | $324.63 | $285.75 | -11.98% | Loss |
| 2025-12-17 | 2026-02-26 | $176.76 | $149.27 | -15.55% | Loss |
| 2026-04-21 | 2026-05-14 | $180.54 | $194.93 | +7.97% | Win |
| 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-11 | $247.29 | $183.46 | -25.81% | Loss |
| 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-15 | $161.63 | $140.35 | -13.17% | Loss |
Summary: 25 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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