Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs AMAT a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Exceptional business · model timing: exited. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open AMAT Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on AMAT stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 4/7 (last setup 2026-09-16, 30d ago)
Why: AMAT carries a ACCUMULATE rating because valuation and fundamentals remain attractive (Investment Quality 98/100), but trend strength is still emerging (ADX 22), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 4/7). A breakout above $411.51 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $396.45 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 5.51:1 to the analyst target $639.87, against a stop at $367.45.
- Model timing: RED · BEARISH, MODEL EXITED.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $20.92 below entry ($41.84–$62.77).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +24.8% YoY with a 33.7% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 31.9x.
- Wall Street: average target $639.87 (+56.3%) from 33 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $396.45 (-3.1%), nearest resistance $411.51 (+0.5%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BELOW TREND
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on AMAT?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: the model holds no position.
If you don't: ACCUMULATE — Reward:risk improves from 5.51:1 today to 5.82:1 at $396.45.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$409.29
Buy Stop Loss
$367.45
Distance: 10%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (new entry)
$367.45
Distance: 10%
2.0x ATR · trails after +1R/+2R
ATR 14 Day
$20.92
Volatility
ADX Strength
21.7
Emerging trend
No adaptive position open. Adaptive rule: 2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending).
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does AMAT's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, MODEL EXITED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Exceptional business, decent entry. AMAT clears 58 on both the business and the entry price.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving AMAT's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +42.8% YoY | +18 | |
| Profitability Margin 30%, ROE 41% | +16 | |
| Revenue Growth +24.8% YoY | +10 | |
| Momentum RSI 29, MACD momentum bearish | +1 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +1 | |
| Trend EMA mixed, ADX 22 | +0 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 31.9, PEG 1.1 | -5 | |
| Volatility ATR 5.1% of price | -6 | |
| Relative Strength -25.2% vs S&P 500 (3M) | -12 |
Net Factor Score: +23 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could AMAT stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for AMAT over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $496.57 (+21.3%)
If AMAT reclaims the $411.51 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $496.57 — a resistance level. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Technology.
🔴 The Bear Case — $315.14 (-23.0%)
Failure to hold the $396.45 support level opens a slide toward $315.14 (-23.0% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $367.45 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 22 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $396.45 and $411.51 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying AMAT now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on AMAT right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $639.87; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $367.45. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today at $409.29 | $409.29 | $41.84 | $230.58 | 5.51:1 |
| Preferred new entry accumulation zone $396.45–$404.38 · stop $354.61 | $396.45 | $41.84 | $243.42 | 5.82:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs AMAT stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Applied Materials, Inc. · Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs AMAT outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -2.3% | -25.2% | -4.7% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.4% | -26.6% | -15.8% |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | +1.8% | -18.7% | -12.9% |
AMAT 3-month return: -22.1% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability AMAT stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 50% vs 52% · 5d 53% vs 56% · 20d 51% vs 60%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Semiconductors (12 peers)Is AMAT cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 12 Semiconductors peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ AMAT vs. Its Closest PeersHow does AMAT compare to KLAC and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Semiconductor Equipment & Materials from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files AMAT beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | AMAT (this report) | KLAC | LRCX | TXN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $324.8B | $216.3B | $330.3B | $252.5B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +24.8% | +15.2% | +30.0% | +22.8% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 31.9x | 30.0x | 27.7x | 32.4x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2030E CAGR) | 1.08 | 1.99 | 1.72 | 3.49 |
| Operating Margin | 33.7% | 42.5% | 37.4% | 42.6% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 21.7 | 16.5 | 18.2 | 16.2 |
KLAC (KLA Corporation — closest business match), LRCX (Lam Research Corporation), TXN (Texas Instruments Incorporated). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded AMAT recently?
1 rating change in 90 days (1 downgrade); 22 ratings reaffirmed (not listed).
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erste Group | DOWNGRADE | Buy → Hold | Aug 05, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on AMAT?
Overall: Slightly Bullish · 13 bullish · 5 bearish · 22 neutral of 40 headlines (net score +1.5 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 13)
- AMD, AVGO, AMAT & INTC: Stephen Sopko's AI Leadership Picks Beyond NVDA
Schwab Network • Oct 17Stephen Sopko takes investors through his takeaways on the slew of tech summits adding color to an evolving tech industry. Applied Materials (AMAT) fo...
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTkz8h9JRbo... - Applied Materials CEO on Doubling Revenue Thanks To AI
Bloomberg Technology • Oct 14Applied Materials CEO Gary Dickerson says he expects revenue to double over the next few years. He notes that Applied Materials had opened a $5 billio...
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0cQpOB7nO8... - Applied Materials Cratered in The last 3 Months: One Wall Street Sell Side Firm Predicts it Will Nearly Double Within 12 Months
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 14Applied Materials just posted its fifth consecutive earnings beat while the stock cratered 22% in three months, and at least one Wall Street firm thin...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/14/applied-materials... - Applied Materials Targets AI-Led Market Share Gains and Higher Margins by 2030
MarketBeat • Oct 13Applied Materials NASDAQ: AMAT outlined an expanded growth strategy tied to artificial intelligence demand at its SEMICON West technology breakfast, s...
Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/event-applied-mate... - Applied Materials Set to Outperform as AI Drives Sustained Demand for Wafer Fab Equipment
GlobeNewsWire • Oct 13SAN FRANCISCO, Oct. 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- At its 2026 SEMICON West Investor Breakfast Presentation held today, Applied Materials, Inc. presente...
Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/13/338002...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 5)
- Applied Materials (AMAT) Declines More Than Market: Some Information for Investors
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 14In the latest trading session, Applied Materials (AMAT) closed at $446.63, marking a -3.79% move from the previous day....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3007533/applied-materials-a... - Why Applied Materials Sank Today
The Motley Fool • Oct 13Applied Materials gave an investor presentation today. While management outlined some initial projections for 2030, it also glossed over some key metr...
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/13/why-applied-materi... - Semiconductor Equipment Stocks Slide as Investors Take Profits on a Huge Year: Applied Materials Sinks 7%, Lam Research and KLA Drop 4%
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 13Semiconductor equipment stocks are giving back ground after a strong year powered by artificial intelligence (AI) spending. Applied Materials (NASDAQ:...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/13/semiconductor-equ... - Applied Materials Faces Market Share Test as Global Chip Equipment Spending Surges 23%
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 11Worldwide wafer fabrication equipment spending is projected to increase 23.1% to $143.9 billion in 2026, following a record $116.9 billion in 2025 App...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/11/applied-materials... - Applied Materials (AMAT) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 08The latest trading day saw Applied Materials (AMAT) settling at $509.57, representing a -2.13% change from its previous close....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3003224/applied-materials-a...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $367.45 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
50.0%
Past Total Return
+83.5%
Max Drawdown
-14.5%
Avg Trade
+10.7%
Trades
20
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $367.45 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
45.8%
Past Total Return
+73.3%
Max Drawdown
-15.5%
Avg Trade
+8.2%
Trades
24
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the AMAT rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a ACCUMULATE entry rating to AMAT based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (29) is currently in oversold territory, historically preceding a reversal.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 22 indicates an emerging trend (20-25). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($20.92) indicates high volatility (5.1% of price), suggesting potential moves of 10.2%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 10 of 20 historical trades (50.0%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +10.7% per trade.
Firing at the 2026-09-16 setup (30d ago) — RSI Bullish Divergence (2) · MACD Bullish Divergence (2).
Not firing at the 2026-09-16 setup (30d ago): Valid Breakout, EMA Trend Alignment, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 4/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 4/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why AMAT can show a mixed trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 4/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ AMAT — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $409.29 | Volume | 8.5M |
| Avg Volume | 6.9M (~$2.8B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 1.59 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $477.71 | EMA 50 | $485.97 |
| EMA 200 | $435.02 | VWAP | $414.45 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 21.75 | Distance from EMA 20 | -14.3% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 29.21 | MACD | -8.52 |
| MACD Signal | 2.75 | MACD Histogram | -11.27 |
| Stochastic %K | 3.88 | Stochastic %D | 9.97 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $563.16 | Bollinger Middle | $490.37 |
| Bollinger Lower | $417.58 | Band Position | -5.7% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $20.92 | ATR as % of price | 5.1% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 4/7 (last setup 2026-09-16, 30d ago) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | SELL — fired 2026-10-14 (2d ago) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $324.8B | Revenue | $30.8B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 31.9 | Revenue Growth | +24.8% |
| Trailing P/E | 35.3 | Gross Margin | 49.4% |
| Price/Sales | 10.53 | Operating Margin | 33.7% |
| Price/Book | 12.68 | Profit Margin | 30.1% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2030E CAGR) | 1.08 | ROE | 41.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $322.9B | Free Cash Flow | $3.1B |
| EPS (Forward) | $12.81 | Dividend Yield | 0.52% |
| 52-Week Range | $203.40 - $739.67 | Institutional Ownership | 86.4% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-10 | 2023-12-15 | $147.19 | $158.54 | +7.71% | Win |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-07-10 | $164.40 | $250.48 | +52.36% | Win |
| 2024-07-17 | 2024-07-29 | $216.19 | $201.95 | -6.59% | Loss |
| 2024-10-14 | 2024-10-15 | $210.52 | $188.01 | -10.69% | Loss |
| 2024-10-31 | 2024-12-24 | $178.72 | $166.11 | -7.06% | Loss |
| 2025-01-22 | 2025-01-31 | $192.88 | $177.93 | -7.75% | Loss |
| 2025-05-13 | 2025-08-20 | $171.10 | $159.62 | -6.71% | Loss |
| 2025-09-03 | 2025-10-16 | $155.39 | $226.47 | +45.74% | Win |
| 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-29 | $283.31 | $340.13 | +20.05% | Win |
| 2026-02-13 | 2026-10-14 | $353.65 | $446.63 | +26.29% | Win |
Summary: 20 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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