NKE
Nike, Inc. — Consumer Discretionary · Footwear & Apparel
NYSE: NKE Large-Cap Turnaround Play Elliott Hill CEO Dividend 3.7%
Price $44.01
52W High $80.17
52W Low $40.00
YTD Change −32%
Mkt Cap ~$66B
Cons. Target $51.46

Nike sits near 12-year lows after a brutal 32% YTD decline, with Q4 FY2026 revenues down across most geographies. CEO Elliott Hill's "Win Now" turnaround is gaining early traction in North America and running, but Greater China remains in freefall (−12% in Q4) and FY2027 guidance calls for further revenue declines. The $986M tariff refund inflated Q4 EPS optics — ex-tariff EPS was just $0.20. This is a patient recovery story, not a momentum trade.

Analyze the latest data at ultrastockanalysispro.com

⚠️
Earnings Alert — Q4 FY2026 (June 30, 2026): Revenue $11.0B (−1% reported, −4% currency-neutral). Reported EPS $0.72 beat estimates — but $0.52 of that came from one-time tariff recovery. Ex-tariff EPS was only $0.20. FY2027 guidance: low-to-mid single-digit revenue decline. China sales −12% (-17% constant currency).
⚡ TACTICAL HUD — NKE · July 5, 2026
Action WATCH Speculative only
Entry $41.50–43.50 On pullback to support
Stop-Loss $38.50 Below 52W low $40
Targets $47 → $51 → $97 Res → Cons → Street-hi
Conviction 3/7 ⚠️ Caution
Key Risk China + FCF Div. coverage strained
📍 Thesis: Nike is a generational brand at decade-low prices — but the turnaround is a marathon, not a sprint. Entry only on confirmed support holds; stop tight below the 52W low.
⏱ 5-sec read: the Tactical HUD  ·  1-min: Top-5 lists & TL;DRs  ·  Deep dive: expand the ▸ panels
📋 Table of Contents
01🧠 USAP Deep Analysis — Trader's Take 02💰 Fundamentals / Valuation 03⚡ AI Sentiment — USAP 04🌐 Comprehensive Web Research 05𝕏 Social — X (Twitter) 06🔴 Reddit 07▶ YouTube 08f Facebook
Generated by ultrastockanalysispro.com · @ultrastockpro Research · July 5, 2026
🧠
USAP Deep Analysis (ultrastockanalysispro.com)
Trade Entry Conditions · Key Levels · Trend Alignment · Trader's Take · Price Scenarios
⚠️ Trade Entry Score — 3/7 Met
  • ✓ Price above SMA 20 ($43.38) $44.01 ✅
  • ✓ Price above SMA 50 ($43.84) $44.01 ✅
  • ✗ Price above SMA 200 ($57.00) $44.01 ❌
  • ✓ RSI constructive (40–65 range) RSI 55 ✅
  • ~ MACD bullish crossover Mixed (−0.55 to +0.65)
  • ✗ Earnings trend improving (organic) Ex-tariff EPS $0.20 ❌
  • ✗ Positive near-term guidance FY27 rev declining ❌
▸ Key Levels — Support, Resistance & Moving Averages
Current Price$44.01
52-Week High$80.17
52-Week Low$40.00
Support 1$42.00–42.06
Support 2 (Hard)$40.00 (52W Low)
Resistance 1$44.06–47.40
Resistance 2$51.46 (Consensus PT)
SMA 20$43.38
SMA 50$43.84
SMA 200$57.00 (far above)
RSI (14-day)~55 (Neutral)
MACDMixed / Mild Buy
▸ Trend Alignment — SMA vs Price
Price vs SMA 20 ($43.38) Above ✅
Price vs SMA 50 ($43.84) Above ✅ (barely)
Price vs SMA 200 ($57.00) Far Below ❌
Short-term Trend (20/50 relationship) Compressing — Watch
Long-term Trend Downtrend (vs SMA 200)
▸ Entry & Stop-Loss Details
Preferred Entry Zone$41.50–$43.50
Entry RationalePullback to SMA20/support cluster
Stop-Loss$38.50
Stop RationaleBelow 52W low ($40); breakdown signal
Target 1$47.40 (resistance)
Target 2$51.46 (consensus PT)
Target 3 (bull)$65+ (200-SMA recapture)
Street-High Target$97–$103
Risk/Reward (T1)~1.6:1 from support entry
▸ Momentum Pulse
Short-Term MomentumNeutral — range-bound near SMA cluster
Medium-Term MomentumBearish — YTD −32%, far below 200-SMA
Volume TrendElevated post-earnings; normalizing
Positive Catalysts ActiveFIFA World Cup · Tariff refund
Running Business5 consecutive qtrs double-digit growth
North America Q4+3% YoY ($4.83B)
"Nike is sitting at a generational-brand discount — down 32% on the year, trading near decade lows, and the 200-SMA is a distant $13 above. The turnaround is real but slow. Elliott Hill has stabilized North America and running is on fire, but China is a genuine problem and the tariff EPS beat masked weak organic earnings of just twenty cents. Watch $42 support. If it holds, the risk/reward on a slow-build recovery starts to make sense. Don't chase the headline EPS — look at the ex-tariff number."
— USAP AI Trader's Take · @ultrastockpro Research

Price Scenarios (12-Month)

Bull Case
$65
200-SMA recapture; China stabilizes; turnaround traction
Base Case
$51
Slow recovery; consensus PT; North America leads
Bear Case
$35
China worsens; dividend cut; macro pressure
💰
Fundamentals / Valuation
Earnings · Full-Year Metrics · Analyst Price Targets
TL;DR: Q4 FY2026 headline EPS beat was largely a tariff refund mirage. Ex-tariff EPS $0.20 signals weak underlying profitability. Full-year revenue flat. China, Direct, and Converse all declining.
▸ Quarterly Earnings — Actual vs Estimate
QuarterRevenue Est.Revenue ActualEPS Est.EPS ActualResult
Q4 FY2026
Mar–May 2026		 ~$10.7B $11.0B ~$0.28 $0.72 ($0.20 ex-tariff) Beat*
Q3 FY2025
Dec–Feb 2025		 $11.03B $11.27B $0.29 $0.54 Beat

*Q4 FY2026 EPS beat includes $0.52/share one-time tariff refund (IEEPA recovery). Ex-tariff organic EPS: $0.20.

▸ Full-Year Valuation Metrics
FY2026 Revenue$46.4B (flat YoY)
FY2026 EPS (reported)$2.10
FY2026 EPS (ex-tariff)$1.58
FY2026 Gross Margin (Q4)49.2% (incl. tariff) / ~40.3% ex-tariff
FCF (trailing 12M)~$1.0B (−65% YoY)
Dividend Payout (12M)~$2.4B (FCF < Dividend)
Cash & Equivalents$7.56B
Dividend Yield~3.7–3.8%
Forward P/E~27–28x (elevated for declining rev)
FY2027 Revenue GuidanceLow-to-mid single-digit decline
▸ Analyst Price Target Table
Analyst / FirmRatingPrice Target
Goldman SachsDowngrade$42
Wells FargoCut$40
JefferiesPessimisticCut (low)
BTIGBuyUpside thesis
Consensus (39 analysts, S&P)Hold/Moderate Buy$51.46
Median—$47.10
Street LowBear$23–$40
Street HighBull$97–$103
🟢 Bull Thesis — Top 5
  • N. America Q4 +3% — turnaround traction
  • Running: 5 consecutive qtrs double-digit growth
  • $7.56B cash — dividend + buyback runway
  • FIFA World Cup kit sales surge
  • Fall 2026 Investor Day — new CFO long-term framework catalyst
🔴 Risk Thesis — Top 5
  • China Q4 −12% (−17% FX-neutral); no bottom in sight
  • FCF $1B vs $2.4B dividend payout — unsustainable
  • Ex-tariff EPS $0.20 — core earnings very weak
  • FY2027 guidance: revenue decline continues
  • On, Hoka, Adidas taking performance share
⚡
AI Sentiment — USAP (Google-Verified)
Rapid Fire Signals · Key Events Timeline · Strengths & Risks Top 5 · AI Takeaway
TL;DR: Sentiment is cautiously mixed — bulls see a generational brand at decade-low prices; bears point to structurally weak earnings, China freefall, and an overstretched valuation at 27–28x forward on a declining business.
📰 Headline Story

Nike's "Win Now" turnaround under Elliott Hill is real but uneven. Q4 FY2026 showed North America resilience and margin stabilization — but the China implosion (−12%), flat full-year revenue, and weak ex-tariff EPS confirm this is a multi-year rebuild, not a near-term breakout. The stock's 32% YTD decline has created value-investor interest, but the earnings quality question keeps institutional buyers cautious.

▸ Rapid Fire Signals
Institutional StanceCautious / Wait-and-see
Retail Trader BiasMixed — some value buyers, bears dominating
Analyst ConsensusNeutral / Moderate Buy ($51.46 avg PT)
Earnings QualityLow — tariff refund masking weak organic growth
Dividend SafetySupported by cash ($7.56B) but FCF strained
China OutlookNo bottom yet; "comprehensive reset" needed
Running CategoryBright spot — double-digit growth 5 straight qtrs
World Cup CatalystActive — kit pre-sales significantly higher YoY
▸ Key Events Timeline
Oct 2024Elliott Hill returns as CEO
Q3 FY2025 (Mar '25)EPS $0.54 vs $0.29 est — beat; revenue $11.27B
FY2025 Full YearRevenue $46.3B (−10% YoY), EPS −40%+
Jun 30, 2026Q4 FY2026: EPS $0.72 (beat) — $0.52 tariff refund
Jul 2026NKE ~$44; −32% YTD; near 12-year lows
Fall 2026Investor Day — new CFO + long-term financial framework
⚡ Strengths — Top 5
  • Largest athletic brand globally — unmatched brand moat
  • Running business: +$1B revenue added in FY2026
  • Wholesale rebuild gaining traction (+4% in Q4)
  • $7.56B cash — flexibility for multi-year fight
  • FIFA World Cup + Sport Offense strategy relaunch
⚠️ Risks — Top 5
  • Greater China structural decline — no bottom visible
  • Converse −32% in Q4; Jordan Streetwear fading
  • Nike Direct −7% (digital channel weakness)
  • Free cash flow vs dividend payout gap widening
  • Forward P/E 27–28x rich for a declining-revenue company
"Nike is the brand equivalent of buying a house in a depressed market — the asset is real, the moat is intact, but the renovation will take years. Ex-tariff earnings of twenty cents a share reveal how far the business has degraded from its peak. Patient capital with $42 stop-loss discipline gets paid; impatient traders will be frustrated by the slow grind. The Fall investor day is the real catalyst to watch."
— USAP AI Takeaway · @ultrastockpro Research · July 5, 2026
🌐
Comprehensive Web Research
Strategy Deep Dive · Near-Term Catalysts · Competitive Landscape
TL;DR: Elliott Hill's "Win Now" strategy is the right medicine but the patient is still sick. North America and running are responding; China and digital are getting worse. The tariff refund runway is largely spent.
▸ "Win Now" Strategy — What's Working & What's Not

Elliott Hill reversed the failed "Consumer Direct Acceleration" strategy that cut wholesale partners and overloaded popular silhouettes (AF1, AJ1, Dunks). The new playbook:

✅ WorkingWholesale rebuild (+4% Q4, double-digit N. America)
✅ WorkingRunning — 5 qtrs double-digit growth, +$1B in FY2026
✅ WorkingMarketing pivot: NBA, WNBA, NFL, FIFA partnerships
⚠️ MixedDiscounting peaked — gross margin stabilizing at ~40%
❌ Not WorkingChina: −12% Q4, "comprehensive reset" acknowledged
❌ Not WorkingNike Direct −7%, digital channels slowing
❌ Not WorkingConverse −32%; Jordan Streetwear losing ground
▸ Near-Term Catalysts — Top 5
1. FIFA World CupKit sales significantly ahead of prior World Cups
2. Tariff Refund Tail~$686M remaining from $986M total — Q1 FY2027 cash
3. Fall 2026 Investor DayNew CFO + long-term financial framework — key re-rating event
4. N. America Momentum+3% Q4; wholesale orders rebuilding — watch FY27 Q1
5. Inventory CleanupClean inventory position — promotional pressure easing
▸ Competitive Landscape — Top 5 Threats
On Running (ONON)Double-digit growth; taking premium performance share
Hoka (Deckers)Running cult brand; eroding Nike's core performance turf
AdidasResurgent with Samba/Gazelle — lifestyle/streetwear pressure
Local China BrandsAnta, Li-Ning gaining ground in Nike's #2 market
Lululemon (LULU)Women's activewear — competing for Nike's lifestyle premium
⚖️ Bottom Line Verdict — NKE · July 5, 2026
WATCH — Speculative Recovery, Not a Momentum Buy
Nike is a generational brand at decade-low prices, but the turnaround is slower than the market initially priced in. The Q4 FY2026 EPS beat was 72% driven by a one-time tariff refund — organic earnings are thin. China is in freefall with no bottom in sight, FY2027 guidance calls for continued revenue declines, and free cash flow is running below the dividend. For patient value investors with a 2–3 year horizon, the risk/reward improving — but conviction requires $42 support to hold and the Fall 2026 investor day to deliver a credible multi-year framework. Tactical stop: $38.50. Watch, don't chase.
── Supporting · Social Sentiment ──
𝕏
Social Media — X (Twitter)
Trader & Investor Sentiment · Themes · Quotes
Net Read: X/Stocktwits is split — retail bulls see a value/dividend play near decade lows; bears dominate with tariff-refund-fraud narrative and China concerns.
BearishBullish
Bearish 55% / Bullish 45% — Mixed leaning bearish
▸ Extended X Sentiment — Themes & Representative Quotes

Dominant Themes:

  • Tariff refund "masking" real earnings — skepticism about EPS quality
  • FIFA World Cup potential — bulls pointing to brand visibility bump
  • 12-year low = buying opportunity (contrarian retail sentiment)
  • Dividend 3.7–3.8% yield attracting income seekers
  • JP Morgan doubts turnaround; retail disagrees
  • BTIG: "sentiment appears overly depressed" — analyst optimism vs retail caution
🔴
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · r/stocks · r/investing
Community Sentiment · Valuation Debate
Net Read: Reddit value investors are sharply divided on whether 27–28x forward earnings is justified for a company with declining revenue and structurally weak China — most say no.
BearishBullish
Bearish 60% / Bullish 40% — Cautious majority
▸ Extended Reddit Discussion — Key Arguments

Bear Side (r/ValueInvesting majority):

  • 27.5–28x forward earnings "not justified" given revenue declines
  • "Slow bleed" narrative — stock will drift lower until fundamentals improve
  • China is a "permanent impairment" risk for many — Anta, Li-Ning winning locally
  • Past DTC missteps still reverberating; recovery "fragile foundation"

Bull Side (minority):

  • Brand moat + athlete relationships = durable competitive advantage
  • Fundamental decline "slowing" — not reversing yet, but decelerating
  • Long-term play; two to three years to see real results
▶
YouTube — Content Analysis
Creator Themes · Bull/Bear Framing · Audience Reception
Net Read: YouTube content skews cautious-to-bullish for long-term investors; most creators framing NKE as a "generational bottom" speculation rather than a near-term trade.
BearishBullish
Cautious 45% / Bullish long-term 55% — Mixed with LT optimism
▸ YouTube Content Themes
  • "Is Nike stock a buy at 12-year lows?" — dominant video format
  • Elliott Hill turnaround analysis — mostly cautiously optimistic framing
  • Tariff refund "smoke and mirrors" — bearish creators deconstructing Q4
  • Dividend income angle — 3.7–3.8% yield highlighted for income investors
  • Bull/bear debate format popular — audience comment sections split evenly
  • 247WallSt: "NKE set for 25% rebound after brutal year" — getting traction
f
Facebook — Investor Groups
Retail Investor Pulse · Consumer Brand Angle
Net Read: Facebook investor groups tend toward the long-term dividend + brand value thesis. Less technical, more brand-loyalty driven — generally cautiously bullish on the decade-low price.
BearishBullish
Cautious 45% / LT Bullish 55% — Brand loyalty thesis drives optimism
▸ Facebook Investor Group Themes
  • Brand loyalty narrative: "Nike will be around in 50 years" — dominant retail view
  • Dividend income at 3.7–3.8% — attracting income-focused retail buyers
  • Decade-low price perceived as generational opportunity by many
  • Less discussion of tariff nuance / earnings quality vs. Reddit/X
  • World Cup excitement filtering through — consumer brand enthusiasm
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