Which stocks from last week's earnings are forming buy setups?

From the week ending September 20, 2026, 1 stocks are identified as Trend Accelerators with actionable buy setups: CTAS.

How many earnings stocks beat EPS estimates this week?

7 of 8 stocks beat EPS estimates. 4 gaps held after the 3-day rule.

What is the 3-day rule for post-earnings trading?

The 3-day rule suggests waiting 3 trading days after earnings to see if a gap holds or fills. Gaps that hold after 3 days are more likely to continue in the gap direction.

COST Post-Earnings Actions — September 20, 2026

← Back to Earnings Weekly

Download PDF — Post-Earnings Action Report

Individual Reports

AZO COST CTAS DRI GIS KBH PAYX SNX

Executive Summary

TL;DR7 of 8 beat EPS (88%), and 4 gaps held the 3-day rule. 1 accelerating, 5 reversing, 2 in volatility crush.

Full summary

During the week ending September 20, 2026, 7 out of 8 reporting stocks beat EPS estimates, with 1 missing. Of the 8 stocks, 4 gaps held after three days. AZO recorded the biggest gap up at +3.2%, and SNX experienced the largest gap down at -9.0%.

The week's activity was dominated by Trend Reversal setups, accounting for 5 of the 8 stocks. Notable gaps that held included AZO (+3.2%), DRI (-2.3%), PAYX (-4.2%), and SNX (-9.0%), suggesting potential follow-through in these post-earnings moves. The prevalence of reversal categories indicates a focus on shifts in existing trends.

Sector Backdrop — 5-Day Tide

Where the institutional money is flowing this week. SPY 5D: -0.2%. Earnings landings into leading sectors get a tailwind; landings into lagging sectors fight a headwind.

Leaders

XLF Financials +0.6% XLV Healthcare +0.5% XLI Industrials +0.4%

Laggards

XLU Utilities -2.1% XLRE Real Estate -1.3% XLY Consumer Discretionary -1.0%

Position Changes This Week

New Buy Entries

AZO — Entry 2026-09-23 @ $2843.34 (CONFLUENCE) — OPEN
HOLD □□□□□□□ Signal 0/7 | Bearish | RSI 45 | -1.0% vs EMA20
💡 Despite Q4 EPS beat, slowing same-store sales and soft DIY demand suggest holding AZO amidst bearish technicals.
PAYX — Entry 2026-09-23 @ $104.49 (CONFLUENCE) — Closed
WAIT ■■■□□□□ Signal 3/7 | Bearish | RSI 22 | -11.3% vs EMA20
💡 Post-earnings dip from slower core growth, despite EPS beat, suggests waiting for a stronger PAYX catalyst.

Position Exits

PAYX — Exit 2026-09-25 @ $101.37 (SELL) — P&L: -3.0%
WAIT ■■■□□□□ Signal 3/7 | Bearish | RSI 22 | -11.3% vs EMA20
💡 Post-earnings dip from slower core growth, despite EPS beat, suggests waiting for a stronger PAYX catalyst.

Featured Post-Earnings Setup: COST🟡 NEUTRAL · XLP -0.7% · #7/11 📊 Open Stock Analysis ↗

Why Featured: COST beat EPS estimates by +3.2% yet remains below its 5-month trend line for 18 straight weeks, a classic setup where good news meets broken structure. The stock gapped down initially before reversing intraday to reclaim $922.77, but relative strength versus its sector is still flat-to-declining. This tension between a fundamental beat and a stalled macro trend makes it this week's key post-earnings watch.

Earnings Resolution

EPS Result: Costco posted $6.75 versus $6.54 expected, a +3.2% beat.
Gap Analysis: Shares opened at $887, a -1.1% gap down, before reversing to $922.77.
Volume & Drift: No confirmed 3-day close is available yet, leaving post-earnings drift direction still undetermined.

Post-Earnings Technical Assessment

Gap Reversal: The intraday reversal erased the opening gap, pushing price 4.0% above the post-earnings open.
Trend Conflict: Daily trend reads as downtrend even as price sits below its 5-month trend line at $943.20.
Key Levels: Price hovers between support at $921.99 and resistance at $929.51.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive at 1.73 but ADX near 16.7 signals a weak trend.

The Setup Verdict

🔮 Scenarios (30-60 Days)

🟢 Bull: $1079.78 (+17.0%) — Price reclaims its 5-month trend line and relative strength turns higher.

🟡 Base: $925.75 (+0.0%) — Price consolidates between support and resistance as the trend stays undecided.

🔴 Bear: $891.30 (-3.4%) — Rally fails at resistance and the broken medium-term trend reasserts itself.

Final Verdict: MONITOR. With price below its 5-month trend line and flat relative strength, watch $929.51 resistance and $891.30 stop before adding exposure.

🔬 COST - Deep Technical Scan

RSI (14)

2.0

Oversold

MACD Histogram

1.727

Bullish

ADX

16.7

Weak trend

BB Position

66%

Mid-range

Confluence

0B / 0S

N/A

Signal

HOLD

Downtrend

ML Probability

40% next day up

5d 45% | 20d 59%

Backtest Win Rate

42%

10W / 14L (24 trades)

Avg Trade P&L

+2.3%

Best: +44.8% / Worst: -8.9%

SUPPORT

$921.99

STOP LOSS

$891.30

RESISTANCE

$929.51

📊 Fundamental Snapshot

P/E Ratio

44.4

Forward P/E

40.5

Rev Growth

+11.1%

Analyst Upside

+17.0%

🤖 COST - AI Deep Analysis

🎯 Price Targets

THE ANALYST CONSENSUS:
• Average Target: $1079.78 (+17.0% Upside)
• High Target: $1275.00

RISK/REWARD:
• Upside to Bull: +17.0%
• Downside to Bear: -3.4%
• Verdict: Favorable (5.0:1 reward-to-risk ratio with well-defined downside support)

⚠️ Risk Assessment

1. THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL
* Why: You are attempting a trade directly against a prevailing Bearish trend with razor-thin clearance ($0.77) above immediate support and zero institutional confluence backing the position.

2. THE #1 KILLER:
* Risk: Immediate Breakdown of the $921.99 Support Level.
* Consequence: A failure at $921.99 immediately confirms the prevailing bearish trend, causing an air pocket drop toward the wide -3.4% stop loss at $891.30 with zero intermediate support structures to slow the decline.

3. RISK FACTOR BREAKDOWN:
* Technicals: The active trend is Bearish, while an ADX of 16.7 signals a weak, non-trending, choppy environment ripe for high-volatility downside expansion.
* Levels: Price ($922.76) is dangerously close to immediate Support ($921.99) and heavily capped by overhead Resistance at $929.51, presenting an asymmetrical risk exposure relative to the distant $891.30 stop.
* Psychology: A lukewarm 52.3 RSI coupled with a 30-day absence of any confluence events shows a complete lack of buyer conviction and zero smart-money accumulation.

4. WORST CASE SCENARIO:
* Support at $921.99 fails on a volume spike, triggering a cascading liquidation down into the $891.30 stop loss to lock in a severe -3.4% loss ($31.46 per share).

📰 AI Sentiment Google Search Grounded

HEADLINE STORY:
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) announced robust fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2026 operating results, with net sales for the quarter climbing 11.2% to $93.9 billion and diluted earnings per share reaching $6.75, partly boosted by non-recurring tariff refunds. The company also outlined plans for significant expansion in fiscal year 2027, targeting approximately $7.5 billion in capital expenditures and 33 new warehouse openings.

RAPID FIRE:
• Revenue: $303.2B (+11.1% YoY)
• EPS: $22.79 (+0.0% YoY)
• Key Driver: Strong Q4 sales and tariff refunds

SENTIMENT GAUGE:
Verdict: MIXED
The Reality: While Costco exceeded Q4 earnings and revenue expectations, driven by strong comparable sales and a surge in digitally-enabled transactions, the stock experienced an initial rise followed by a slight dip in premarket trading. Analyst reactions have been varied, with some adjusting price targets downwards despite the strong performance, partly due to concerns over slowing membership growth and the non-recurring nature of tariff benefits.

STRENGTHS & RISKS:
Positive: Costco's fourth-quarter net sales increased 11.2% to $93.9 billion, with diluted EPS rising to $6.75, which included a $0.15 per diluted share benefit from tariff refunds. The company also saw a 19.5% increase in digitally-enabled sales and plans to open 33 new warehouses in fiscal year 2027 with a capital expenditure of approximately $7.5 billion.
Risk: Analysts have expressed concerns regarding the slowing growth of membership and the long-term impact of price investments, while the tariff refunds that positively impacted Q4 earnings are a non-recurring item.

TRADER'S TAKEAWAY:
Despite strong reported Q4 results and ambitious expansion plans, the non-recurring nature of tariff benefits and ongoing analyst questions about membership growth suggest a cautious approach for traders.

⚖️ Peer Benchmarking — COST vs WMT, AMZN

Metric	COST	WMT	AMZN
Price	$922.76	$107.98	$249.67
Trend	Sideways	Sideways	Downtrend
RSI	52.3	49.5	44.5
ADX	16.7	11.5	10.3
P/E	44.4	39.0	20.1
Fwd P/E	40.5	37.4	19.5
Rev Growth	+11.1%	+5.9%	+19.6%
EPS Growth	+15.0%	-9.1%	+242.3%
Debt/Equity	0.24	0.72	0.46
Beta	0.85	0.59	1.44
Win Rate	42%	57%	50%
Sentiment	Slightly Bullish	Slightly Bullish	Neutral

⚖️ AI Head-to-Head Comparison

# TOP RANKED: AMZN
> Reason: Amazon dominates on valuation (20.1 P/E vs. 44.4 for COST) and explosive fundamentals (19.6% revenue growth, +242.3% EPS growth) while maintaining an intact, rising 5-month trend line unlike its peers.

---

HEAD-TO-HEAD BREAKDOWN

1. TREND

• COST: Short-term trend is weak (ADX 16.7), and its medium-term trend is broken after remaining below its 5-month trend line for 18 consecutive weeks with the broader trajectory rolling over. Confluence is neutral (0/7).
• WMT: Sits in a low-momentum bearish drift (ADX 11.5) and is trapped below its 5-month trend line for 19 weeks with a rolling-over trajectory, though it triggered moderate bullish confluence (4/7) recently.
• AMZN: While daily momentum shows a bearish MACD, it has only slipped below its 5-month trend line for 1 week, and its broader 5-month trend is rising ($252.32 benchmark). Weak bullish confluence (3/7).
Leader: AMZN 🏆 (Possesses the least macro damage as its broader 5-month trend is still rising).*

2. GROWTH

• COST: Solid revenue expansion of 11.1% and YoY EPS growth of 15.0%, with +17.0% analyst upside ($1,079.78 target).
• WMT: Sluggish top-line growth at 5.9% and contracting earnings (-9.1% YoY EPS growth), offering +16.1% analyst upside ($125.33 target).
• AMZN: Category blowout with 19.6% revenue growth, a massive 242.3% YoY EPS acceleration, 17.4% profit margins, and a Street-high +31.6% upside ($328.63 target).
• Leader: AMZN 🏆

3. VALUE

• COST: Heavily premium pricing across the board with a 44.4 P/E, 40.5 Forward P/E, and an expensive 4.31 PEG.
• WMT: Elevated valuation for defensive retail at a 39.0 P/E, 37.4 Forward P/E, and 3.74 PEG.
• AMZN: Substantially undervalued relative to its peers at a 20.1 P/E, 19.5 Forward P/E, and an attractive 1.67 PEG.
• Leader: AMZN 🏆

4. SAFETY

• COST: Lower market volatility (Beta 0.85) and tightest structural risk (-3.4% stop loss at $891.30), but a weak historical backtest win rate of 42% (+2.3% avg return).
• WMT: Best defensive profile with an ultra-low Beta of 0.59, modest downside risk (-4.0% stop loss at $103.70), and the most reliable historical backtest win rate at 57% (+3.0% avg return).
• AMZN: Highest volatility (Beta 1.44) and widest risk buffer (-4.7% stop loss at $238.05), though it delivers the highest backtest profitability (+5.6% avg return, 50% win rate).
• Leader: WMT 🏆

5. FLAGS

• COST: ⚠️ High valuation multiples (44.4 P/E) coupled with an 18-week broken medium-term trend and weak historical win rate (42%).
• WMT: ⚠️ Earnings contraction (-9.1% YoY EPS), very low momentum (ADX 11.5), and prolonged structural weakness under its rolling 5-month trend line.
• AMZN: ⚠️ Higher market sensitivity (Beta 1.44), an active daily bearish MACD, and a narrow test below its primary $249.98 resistance.

---

BOTTOM LINE

AMZN is the superior selection, offering more than double the growth and upside (+31.6%) at half the P/E multiple (20.1) of both COST and WMT, while maintaining a fundamentally rising medium-term trajectory.

📰 AI Sentiment Comparison Google Search Grounded

SENTIMENT COMPARISON:

COST: MIXED — Costco reported strong Q4 2026 earnings, beating revenue and EPS estimates, with positive indicators in digital sales and membership growth, but several analysts have lowered price targets due to valuation concerns.
WMT: NEUTRAL — Recent news includes Walmart's statement that its retail giant and AI shopping assistant are not using personal information to set prices, addressing privacy concerns.
AMZN: BULLISH — Amazon has several positive developments, including new AI integrations on Amazon Bedrock, expansion of Prime delivery services for merchants, and a positive outlook from analysts on future earnings.

NEWS EDGE: Amazon (AMZN) has the strongest near-term catalyst due to multiple recent announcements related to AI advancements on its Bedrock platform and the expansion of its Prime delivery services for merchants, which could drive further growth and market penetration.

CATALYST TIMELINE:
COST:
• Upcoming Earnings: Estimated for Thursday, December 10, 2026 (After Market).
• Product Launches: Ongoing new product arrivals in September 2026.

WMT:
• Upcoming Earnings: Estimated for Thursday, November 19, 2026 (Before Open).
• Product Launches: Walmart Start beauty brand accelerator program expects brands to launch between December 2025 and March 2026.

AMZN:
• Upcoming Earnings: Estimated for Thursday, October 29, 2026 (After Close).
• Product Launches: Prime Big Deal Days are scheduled for October 6-7, 2026, offering exclusive deals for Prime members.

Earnings Scorecard

TL;DRBiggest move up AZO +3.2%, down SNX -9.0%. A gap that holds three days is the one worth trading.

Metric	Ticker	Value
Biggest Gap Up	AZO	+3.2%
Biggest Gap Down	SNX	-9.0%
Strongest Intraday Reversal	COST	+4.0% swing
7 of 8 beat EPS • 4 gaps held after 3-day rule

Volatility & Trend Resolution

TL;DR1 names cleared earnings and kept going — the buy setups. 5 gave the move back. 2 went quiet and are a wait, not a trade.

Trend Accelerators — Buy Setups (1)

Uptrend + EPS beat + gap held + price above support: CTAS (-1.0%)

Trend Reversals — Watch List (5)

Downtrend + beat or capitulation bounce: AZO (+3.2%), COST (-1.1%), GIS (+0.8%), KBH (+3.2%), PAYX (-4.2%)

Volatility Crush — Wait (2)

Wide range, gap faded, no clear direction: DRI (-2.3%), SNX (-9.0%)

AI Recommended Action Items

NEW POSITION — Survived 3-day rule. Trend: Uptrend. Post-earnings flag.

CTAS (-1.0%)
MONITOR — Beat EPS but extended or reversal in progress. Wait for confirmation.

SNX (-9.0%)PAYX (-4.2%)AZO (+3.2%)KBH (+3.2%)COST (-1.1%)GIS (+0.8%)
NO POSITION — Gap fill failure or missed EPS. No actionable setup.

DRI (-2.3%)

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Ultra Stock Analysis Pro is not a registered investment advisor; information is impersonal and not tailored to individual circumstances. AI-generated content may contain errors — verify before acting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis based on historical data through September 26, 2026. Please conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. Individual investment decisions should be made based on personal financial circumstances and risk tolerance. Always consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

AI Post-Earnings Action Report