UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs UNH a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Weak on business and setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is UNH a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) reads BUY for a new position and EXIT WATCH for an existing one (Signal Strength: 5/7 (last fired 2026-09-23, 2d ago)). The long-term fundamentals are stable (P/E: 24.2, Revenue Growth: +0.4%), while short-term technicals show a bearish trend (RSI: 41). Traders should watch for a breakout above $381.39 before entering new positions.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open UNH Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on UNH stock today?
- Reward:risk: 5.85:1 to the analyst target $481.06, against a stop at $358.73.
- Model timing: RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · SELL.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x ATR stop sits at $358.73, 4.7% below the current $376.59.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +0.4% YoY with a 7.1% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 18.9x.
- Wall Street: average target $481.06 (+27.7%) from 23 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $369.80 (-1.8%), nearest resistance $381.39 (+1.3%).
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does UNH carry this rating?
UNH carries a BUY rating because a confirmed bullish setup is in place (Signal Strength 5/7), but fundamentals are middling (Investment Quality 48/100), the trend is strong (ADX 33) and relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter. A close below $369.80 would weaken the setup; sustained strength keeps the BUY intact.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on UNH?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: EXIT WATCH — The model reads RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · SELL — its own signal has turned against the position.
If you don't: BUY — Signal 5/7, entry quality 70/100, reward:risk 5.85:1.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$376.59
Buy Stop Loss
$358.73
Distance: 5%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$358.73
Distance: 5%
Hybrid 2.00x
ATR 14 Day
$8.93
Volatility
ADX Strength
33.0
Strong trend
Position up +1% - Adaptive strategy adjusts for momentum
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could UNH stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for UNH over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 67%)
If UNH reclaims the $381.39 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $481.06. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Healthcare.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 22%)
Failure to hold the $369.80 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $355.93 liquidity zone (-5.5% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 33 (strong trend), momentum suggests a directional move is imminent between $369.80 and $381.39 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying UNH now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much UNH should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy UNH now, and should you hold it if you already own it?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BELOW TREND
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on UNH right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $481.06; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $358.73. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
Analyst figures are the consensus mean of the panel this report tracks. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere — including on our own live scanner — can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model entry held since 2026-09-23 · +1.4% · against its own $352.95 stop, to TODAY's target — a fact, not a recommendation | $371.29 | $18.34 | $109.77 | 5.99:1 |
| Today at $376.59 | $376.59 | $17.86 | $104.47 | 5.85:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs UNH stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated · Healthcare · Healthcare Plans. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does UNH's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · SELL and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
UNH: Investment Quality 48/100 vs. Entry Quality 70/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving UNH's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +62% YoY | +18 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 18.9, PEG 1.2 | +8 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +4 | |
| Revenue Growth +0% YoY | +0 | |
| Trend EMA mixed, ADX 33 | +0 | |
| Profitability Margin 3%, ROE 14% | -1 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.4% of price | -1 | |
| Momentum RSI 35, MACD bearish | -5 | |
| Relative Strength -17.9% vs benchmarks (3M) | -12 |
Net Factor Score: +11 — Balanced / mixed. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs UNH outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -6.4% | -17.5% | +22.0% |
| Healthcare (XLV) | -4.3% | -18.3% | +24.1% |
UNH 3-month return: -11.4% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability UNH stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Healthcare (14 peers)Is UNH cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 14 Healthcare peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ UNH vs. Its Closest PeersHow does UNH compare to CVS and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Healthcare Plans from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files UNH beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | UNH (this report) | CVS | MRK | TMO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $338.0B | $114.0B | $367.1B | $249.6B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +0.4% | +7.1% | +5.1% | +10.5% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 18.9x | 11.1x | 54.3x | 26.9x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2030E CAGR) | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.38 | 2.72 |
| Operating Margin | 7.1% | 3.9% | -0.2% | 18.8% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 33.0 | 29.6 | 30.1 | 31.1 |
CVS (CVS Health Corporation — closest business match), MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.), TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could UNH go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $481.06 | High Target: | $529.00 |
| Current Price: | $376.59 | Low Target: | $373.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +27.7% | Number of Analysts: | 27 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded UNH recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | UPGRADE | Underperform → Neutral | Jul 16, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on UNH?
Overall Score: 3.5/10 - Slightly Bullish
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 3)
- UnitedHealth Stock Is Up 14% in 2026. Time to Sell or Load Up?
TIKR • Sep 27Key Stats for UnitedHealth StockCurrent Price: $376. 59Target Price (Mid): ~$600Street Target: ~$482Potential Total Return: ~60%Annualized IRR: ~12% /...
Source: https://www.tikr.com/blog/unitedhealth-stock-is-up-14-in-202... - Does UnitedHealth’s New CAO Hire Reveal a Deeper Shift in Efficiency Strategy for UNH?
Simply Wall St. • Sep 24UnitedHealth Group recently announced that Jodee Kozlak joined as chief administrative officer, a new role overseeing People, Real Estate, Procurement...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/does-unitedhea... - Q2 Earnings Outperformers: UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) And The Rest Of The Health Insurance Providers Stocks
StockStory • Sep 24The end of an earnings season can be a great time to discover new stocks and assess how companies are handling the current business environment. Let’s...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/q2-earnings-ou...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $371.29 on 2026-09-23
Confluence: 5/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $358.73
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
69%
Past Total Return
+58.5%
Max Drawdown
-9.9%
Avg Trade
+10.9%
Trades
16
Adaptive Strategy
OPEN POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $371.29 on 2026-09-23
Confluence: 5/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $363.20
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
60%
Past Total Return
+67.1%
Max Drawdown
-9.3%
Avg Trade
+8.6%
Trades
20
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for UNH stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $376.59 | Market Cap | $338.0B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 68.8% (16 trades) | Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 18.9x |
| Past Total Return | +58.5% | Analyst Target | $481.06 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 41 / 33 | Upside to Target | +27.7% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +0.4% |
| Profit Factor | 2.65 | Institutional Own. | 89.7% |
| Position Entry | 2026-09-23 @ $371.29 | Analyst Ratings | 23 Buy / 4 Hold / 0 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | +1.4% |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the UNH rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a BUY entry rating to UNH based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (41) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 33 indicates a strong trend (25-50) supporting directional moves. News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($8.93) indicates moderate volatility (2.4% of price), suggesting potential moves of 4.7%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 69% of the time across 16 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +10.9% per trade.
Firing now — RSI Bullish Divergence (2) · MACD Bullish Divergence (2) · Volume Accumulation (1).
Not firing: Valid Breakout, EMA Trend Alignment, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 5/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 5/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✓ |
This is why UNH can show a mixed trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 5/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ UNH — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $376.59 | Volume | 4.1M |
| Avg Volume | 5.0M | Beta | 0.62 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $382.19 | EMA 50 | $390.12 |
| EMA 200 | $370.08 | VWAP | $375.64 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 33.03 | Distance from EMA 20 | -1.5% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 41.31 | MACD | -6.49 |
| MACD Signal | -6.29 | MACD Histogram | -0.19 |
| Stochastic %K | 21.81 | Stochastic %D | 15.18 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $402.52 | Bollinger Middle | $383.69 |
| Bollinger Lower | $364.86 | Band Position | 31.1% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $8.93 | ATR as % of price | 2.4% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 5/7 (last fired 2026-09-23, 2d ago) | Trade Signal | BUY — fired 2026-09-23 (2d ago) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $338.0B | Revenue | $450.5B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 18.9 | Revenue Growth | +0.4% |
| Trailing P/E | 24.2 | Gross Margin | 19.7% |
| Price/Sales | 0.75 | Operating Margin | 7.1% |
| Price/Book | 3.46 | Profit Margin | 3.1% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2030E CAGR) | 1.22 | ROE | 14.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $387.4B | Free Cash Flow | $24.3B |
| EPS (Forward) | $19.95 | Dividend Yield | 2.46% |
| 52-Week Range | $255.97 - $461.62 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | $371.29 | +1.43% | $352.95 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-22 | 2024-01-18 | $475.27 | $486.54 | +2.37% | Win |
| 2024-04-02 | 2024-06-20 | $433.40 | $460.30 | +6.21% | Win |
| 2024-06-28 | 2024-09-04 | $483.81 | $573.98 | +18.64% | Win |
| 2024-10-15 | 2024-10-29 | $530.36 | $535.93 | +1.05% | Win |
| 2024-11-07 | 2024-12-11 | $577.23 | $510.61 | -11.54% | Loss |
| 2025-02-21 | 2025-04-23 | $446.38 | $411.33 | -7.85% | Loss |
| 2025-08-15 | 2025-09-12 | $294.27 | $341.21 | +15.95% | Win |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-06-15 | $255.97 | $408.52 | +59.60% | Win |
| 2026-06-26 | 2026-08-07 | $425.27 | $404.59 | -4.86% | Loss |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-21 | $382.49 | $387.72 | +1.37% | Win |
Summary: 16 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
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