Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs TXN a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Exceptional business · model timing: bullish, no fresh entry setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open TXN Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on TXN stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days)
Why: TXN carries a ACCUMULATE rating because valuation and fundamentals remain attractive (Investment Quality 88/100), but the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 16), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and no fresh entry trigger has fired (Signal Strength 0/7). A breakout above $277.57 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $270.02 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 2.53:1 to the analyst target $319.62, against a stop at $259.43.
- Model timing: GREEN · BULLISH, NO FRESH ENTRY SETUP.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x volatility ATR stop sits at $277.57, 0.4% below the current $276.48, fixed at the 2026-10-02 entry.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +22.8% YoY with a 42.6% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 32.4x.
- Wall Street: average target $319.62 (+15.6%) from 20 Buy, 15 Hold, 2 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $270.02 (-2.3%), nearest resistance $277.57 (+0.4%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BASING
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on TXN?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: HOLD — Thesis intact, but no edge in adding here.
If you don't: ACCUMULATE — Reward:risk improves from 2.53:1 today to 2.91:1 at $270.02.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$276.48
Buy Stop Loss
$259.43
Distance: 6%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (position)
$277.57
Distance: -0%
fixed at entry until $310.02, then trails
ATR 14 Day
$8.53
Volatility
ADX Strength
16.2
Weak/No Trend
Adaptive position -5.9% - stop still fixed at entry; it starts trailing at $310.02.
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does TXN's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is GREEN · BULLISH, NO FRESH ENTRY SETUP and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Exceptional business, decent entry. TXN clears 58 on both the business and the entry price.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving TXN's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +51.8% YoY | +18 | |
| Profitability Margin 31%, ROE 35% | +16 | |
| Revenue Growth +22.8% YoY | +10 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 16 | +5 | |
| Sentiment Neutral | +1 | |
| Volatility ATR 3.1% of price | -2 | |
| Momentum RSI 48, MACD momentum bearish | -5 | |
| Relative Strength -5.3% vs S&P 500 (3M) | -5 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 32.4, PEG 3.5 | -11 |
Net Factor Score: +27 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could TXN stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for TXN over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $331.90 (+20.0%)
If TXN reclaims the $277.57 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $331.90. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Technology.
🔴 The Bear Case — $248.13 (-10.3%)
Failure to hold the $270.02 support level opens a slide toward $248.13 — a support level (-10.3% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $259.43 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 16 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $270.02 and $277.57 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying TXN now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on TXN right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $319.62; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $259.43. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model entry held since 2026-10-02 · -5.9% · against its own $277.57 stop, to TODAY's target — a fact, not a recommendation | $293.80 | $16.23 | $25.82 | 1.59:1 |
| Today at $276.48 | $276.48 | $17.05 | $43.14 | 2.53:1 |
| Preferred new entry accumulation zone $270.02–$275.42 · stop $252.97 | $270.02 | $17.05 | $49.60 | 2.91:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs TXN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Texas Instruments Incorporated · Technology · Semiconductors. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs TXN outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +6.8% | -5.3% | +13.5% |
| Technology (XLK) | +9.4% | -6.7% | +2.4% |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | +10.8% | +1.2% | +5.2% |
TXN 3-month return: -2.2% · Leadership: MIXED — leads some benchmarks, lags others (see table)
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability TXN stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 54% vs 52% · 5d 55% vs 53% · 20d 54% vs 52%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has beaten that baseline on every horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Semiconductors (12 peers)Is TXN cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 12 Semiconductors peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ TXN vs. Its Closest PeersHow does TXN compare to KLAC and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Semiconductors from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files TXN beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | TXN (this report) | KLAC | MRVL | ADI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $252.5B | $216.3B | $204.8B | $191.6B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +22.8% | +15.2% | +36.5% | +39.6% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 32.4x | 30.0x | 54.1x | 30.7x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2030E CAGR) | 3.49 | 1.99 | 0.89 | 1.29 |
| Operating Margin | 42.6% | 42.5% | 16.7% | 39.5% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 16.2 | 16.5 | 21.5 | 23.6 |
KLAC (KLA Corporation), MRVL (Marvell Technology, Inc.), ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded TXN recently?
No rating changes in 90 days; 16 ratings reaffirmed.
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on TXN?
Overall: Neutral · 3 bullish · 2 bearish · 11 neutral of 16 headlines (net score +0.6 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 3)
- A Silent Winner: Texas Instruments Anchors the AI Supercycle
MarketBeat • Oct 13Texas Instruments TodayTXNTexas Instruments$281.29 -0.45 (-0.16%) As of 09:54 AM Eastern This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn ...
Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/a-silent-winner-texas-in... - TI unveils new ADC to enable nanosecond-level telemetry and minimize downtime in AI data centers
PRNewsWire • Oct 12As AI workloads increase in volume and complexity, Texas Instruments is delivering the essential solutions needed to power, monitor and optimize AI da...
Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ti-unveils-new-adc-... - Can TXN's 300mm Fab Expansion Strategy Further Boost Margins?
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 05Texas Instruments' 300mm fab ramp-up is likely to lift margins as lower-cost wafers, higher utilization and lower capital spending improve operating l...
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3000056/can-txn-s-300mm-fab...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Know
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 09The latest trading day saw Texas Instruments (TXN) settling at $283.74, representing a -1.55% change from its previous close....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3004122/texas-instruments-t... - Texas Instruments (TXN) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Note
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 07Texas Instruments (TXN) reached $288.98 at the closing of the latest trading day, reflecting a -2.78% change compared to its last close....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3002219/texas-instruments-t...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is neutral, indicating balanced coverage without clear directional bias. This suggests market participants are waiting for catalysts or clearer signals. Monitor for changes in sentiment that could indicate emerging trends.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $293.80 on 2026-10-02
Confluence: 4/7 (29d before entry)
Stop Loss: $277.57 (fixed at entry)
A new entry today would stop at $259.43
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
63.2%
Past Total Return
+67.3%
Max Drawdown
-12.4%
Avg Trade
+9.9%
Trades
19
Adaptive Strategy
OPEN POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Entry: $293.80 on 2026-10-02
Confluence: 4/7 (29d before entry)
Stop Loss: $277.57 (fixed at entry until $310.02, then trails)
A new entry today would stop at $259.43
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
61.9%
Past Total Return
+68.9%
Max Drawdown
-11.6%
Avg Trade
+9.1%
Trades
21
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the TXN rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a ACCUMULATE entry rating to TXN based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (48) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 16 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Neutral).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($8.53) indicates high volatility (3.1% of price), suggesting potential moves of 6.2%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 12 of 19 historical trades (63.2%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +9.9% per trade.
Firing now — EMA Trend Alignment (2) · High Volume (>1.5×) (1).
Not firing: Valid Breakout, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger. Not determinable from this run: RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 0/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 0/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✓ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | — |
This is why TXN can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 0/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ TXN — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $276.48 | Volume | 7.9M |
| Avg Volume | 6.3M (~$1.7B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 1.34 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $280.37 | EMA 50 | $277.05 |
| EMA 200 | $255.04 | VWAP | $278.37 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 16.19 | Distance from EMA 20 | -1.4% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 47.56 | MACD | 3.04 |
| MACD Signal | 4.36 | MACD Histogram | -1.32 |
| Stochastic %K | 23.84 | Stochastic %D | 38.72 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $297.70 | Bollinger Middle | $281.89 |
| Bollinger Lower | $266.07 | Band Position | 32.9% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $8.53 | ATR as % of price | 3.1% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | BUY — fired 2026-10-02 (14d ago) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $252.5B | Revenue | $19.5B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 32.4 | Revenue Growth | +22.8% |
| Trailing P/E | 42.1 | Gross Margin | 58.3% |
| Price/Sales | 12.98 | Operating Margin | 42.6% |
| Price/Book | 14.02 | Profit Margin | 31.1% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2030E CAGR) | 3.49 | ROE | 35.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $259.5B | Free Cash Flow | $3.5B |
| EPS (Forward) | $8.52 | Dividend Yield | 2.20% |
| 52-Week Range | $152.73 - $334.03 | Institutional Ownership | 91.7% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | $293.80 | -5.90% | $277.57 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-10 | 2022-12-30 | $156.87 | $148.36 | -5.42% | Loss |
| 2023-01-09 | 2023-04-26 | $158.65 | $148.73 | -6.25% | Loss |
| 2023-05-25 | 2023-06-16 | $154.58 | $161.09 | +4.21% | Win |
| 2023-10-25 | 2023-12-15 | $130.13 | $156.18 | +20.03% | Win |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-02-01 | $160.82 | $149.06 | -7.31% | Loss |
| 2024-02-21 | 2025-03-11 | $153.16 | $170.17 | +11.11% | Win |
| 2025-04-11 | 2025-08-05 | $141.63 | $180.72 | +27.60% | Win |
| 2025-08-21 | 2025-09-09 | $195.64 | $180.36 | -7.81% | Loss |
| 2025-12-10 | 2026-02-11 | $178.66 | $224.27 | +25.52% | Win |
| 2026-04-09 | 2026-05-14 | $212.80 | $306.60 | +44.08% | Win |
Summary: 19 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed volatility ATR-based)
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