QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs QCOM a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Solid business · model timing: deep pullback. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open QCOM Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on QCOM stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 5/7 (last fired 2026-09-21, 25d ago)
Why: QCOM carries a BUY rating because the underlying business is solid (Investment Quality 60/100) and a confirmed bullish setup is in place (Signal Strength 5/7), but the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 12) and relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter. A close below $170.76 would weaken the setup; sustained strength keeps the BUY intact.
- Reward:risk: 2.12:1 to the analyst target $202.79, against a stop at $157.64.
- Model timing: RED · DEEP PULLBACK · ABOVE STOP.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x volatility ATR stop sits at $143.89, 16.4% below the current $172.11, fixed at the 2026-04-29 entry.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue -4.0% YoY with a 18.5% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 17.0x.
- Wall Street: average target $202.79 (+17.8%) from 11 Buy, 23 Hold, 3 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $170.76 (-0.8%), nearest resistance $175.97 (+2.2%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BELOW TREND
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on QCOM?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: HOLD — Deep pullback, not an exit: price is 4.7 volatility ATR below its recent peak, so the model's timing reads RED, but its stop has not been hit and the fundamentals hold. Not a place to add until the trend recovers; the stop is the line.
If you don't: BUY — A dip-buy, not a trend entry: price is 4.7 ATR below its recent peak, which is why the model's timing reads RED — its trend leg has broken. This entry bets the pullback is done; the stop is the plan if it is not. Signal 5/7, entry quality 78/100, reward:risk 2.12:1.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$172.11
Buy Stop Loss
$157.64
Distance: 8%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (position)
$170.73
Distance: 1%
trailing chandelier, as of the last close
ATR 14 Day
$7.24
Volatility
ADX Strength
12.4
Weak/No Trend
Adaptive position -6.9% - past its graduation level, so the stop now trails a chandelier off the 22-day high.
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does QCOM's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · DEEP PULLBACK · ABOVE STOP and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Solid business, prime setup. QCOM clears 58 on both the business and the entry price.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving QCOM's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability Margin 21%, ROE 34% | +16 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 17.0, PEG 0.6 | +11 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 12 | +5 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +1 | |
| Relative Strength -1.5% vs S&P 500 (3M) | -2 | |
| Revenue Growth -4.0% YoY | -3 | |
| Volatility ATR 4.2% of price | -4 | |
| Momentum RSI 43, MACD momentum bearish | -5 | |
| Earnings Growth -23.0% YoY | -18 |
Net Factor Score: +1 — Balanced / mixed. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could QCOM stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for QCOM over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $205.85 (+19.6%)
If QCOM reclaims the $175.97 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $205.85 — a resistance level. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Technology.
🔴 The Bear Case — $142.12 (-17.4%)
Failure to hold the $170.76 support level opens a slide toward $142.12 — a support level (-17.4% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $157.64 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 12 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $170.76 and $175.97 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying QCOM now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on QCOM right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $202.79; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $157.64. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
A second analyst panel reads QCOM differently, and the two readings are materially different. The panel above averages $202.79 (2.12:1); an independent panel averages $194.13 (1.52:1). Neither is the correction of the other — they poll different analysts. Treat the reward leg as a range, not a point.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model entry held since 2026-04-29 · +11.3% · against its own $143.89 stop, to TODAY's target — the model already holds a stronger cost basis than any new entry can get | $154.58 | $10.69 | $48.21 | 4.51:1 |
| Today at $172.11 | $172.11 | $14.47 | $30.68 | 2.12:1 |
| Preferred new entry accumulation zone $164.75–$168.05 · stop $150.28 | $164.75 | $14.47 | $38.04 | 2.63:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs QCOM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: QUALCOMM Incorporated · Technology · Semiconductors. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs QCOM outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -9.1% | -1.5% | +19.5% |
| Technology (XLK) | -6.5% | -2.9% | +8.4% |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | -5.1% | +5.0% | +11.2% |
QCOM 3-month return: +1.6% · Leadership: MIXED — leads some benchmarks, lags others (see table)
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability QCOM stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 52% vs 52% · 5d 51% vs 52% · 20d 50% vs 52%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Semiconductors (12 peers)Is QCOM cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 12 Semiconductors peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ QCOM vs. Its Closest PeersHow does QCOM compare to AVGO and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Semiconductors from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files QCOM beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | QCOM (this report) | AVGO | ADI | MRVL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $183.8B | $1,569.3B | $191.6B | $204.8B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | -4.0% | +85.5% | +39.6% | +36.5% |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 17.0x | 28.2x | 30.7x | 54.1x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2028E CAGR) | 0.59 | 0.65 | 1.29 | 0.89 |
| Operating Margin | 18.5% | 54.3% | 39.5% | 16.7% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 12.4 | 18.9 | 23.6 | 21.5 |
AVGO (Broadcom Inc. — closest business match), ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.), MRVL (Marvell Technology, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded QCOM recently?
1 rating change in 90 days (1 initiation); 13 ratings reaffirmed (not listed).
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | INITIATED | Neutral | Sep 10, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on QCOM?
Overall: Slightly Bullish · 12 bullish · 5 bearish · 18 neutral of 35 headlines (net score +1.4 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 12)
- Arm and AMD Fall 5% as Qualcomm Verdict Adds to Chip Selloff; Taiwan Semiconductor Slips
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 16A Delaware jury verdict is adding to the pressure on Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM | ARM Price Prediction) as a broad selloff in chip stocks extends its ru...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/16/arm-and-amd-fall-... - Can Qualcomm's Advanced 6G Research Boost Its Future Growth Prospects?
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 12QCOM is advancing 6G technology with AI-driven networks, Giga-MIMO and industry partnerships to improve connectivity and prepare for next-generation w...
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3005319/can-qualcomm-s-adva... - Qualcomm Just Opened a New AI Growth Engine. Here's Why It Matters.
The Motley Fool • Oct 07Qualcomm (QCOM -2.56%) is trying to turn its power-efficient computing expertise into a real data-center AI business. It's hypercaler customers give t...
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/07/qualcomm-just-open... - Qualcomm Government Technologies and OKSI Announce Collaboration to Deploy OMNISCIENCE Autonomy Software Portfolio
Business Wire • Oct 07LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--OKSI and Qualcomm Government Technologies, Inc. (QGOV), a division of Qualcomm Technologies, Inc., today announced a col...
Source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261007150553/en/Qua... - Qualcomm Could Have a Much Bigger AI Story Than Investors Think
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 07Qualcomm still gets priced like a smartphone supplier, but two hyperscaler custom silicon deals about to generate revenue suggest the market is missin...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/07/qcom-could-have-a...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 5)
- Qualcomm Vs. Intel: The Market is Refuting Both AI Rebrand Attempts
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 14Intel and Qualcomm both showed up to earnings with a fresh AI identity, but investors have been voting with their feet ever since....
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/14/qualcomm-vs-intel... - Qualcomm at $175: The Narrative Shift Sending Capital Out The Door
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 14Qualcomm is betting its future on AI and data center chips while its smartphone business bleeds, and the December quarter will prove whether that bet ...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/14/qualcomm-at-175-t... - Broadcom vs. Qualcomm: Rapid Growth vs.
The Motley Fool • Oct 07Broadcom currently demonstrates stronger overall revenue performance than Qualcomm by a considerable margin, leading the comparison in all recent comp...
Source: https://www.fool.com/coverage/charts/2026/10/07/broadcom-vs-... - QCOM Lags Industry Year to Date: What's the Next Move for Investors?
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 07Qualcomm faces handset weakness, a faster Apple revenue drop and margin pressure, while its data-center push remains unproven amid competition....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3001808/qcom-lags-industry-... - Taiwan Semiconductor Gains 2% to Record as Musk Confirms Early Terafab Talks; Broadcom Rises 2%, Qualcomm Pulls Back
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 05Early-stage, unconfirmed talks with Terafab, a chip-manufacturing venture planned for Texas, have sent Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM | ...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/05/taiwan-semiconduc...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $154.58 on 2026-04-29
Confluence: 4/7 (5d before entry)
Stop Loss: $143.89 (fixed at entry)
A new entry today would stop at $157.64
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
61.1%
Past Total Return
+40.2%
Max Drawdown
-16.1%
Avg Trade
+8.7%
Trades
18
Adaptive Strategy
OPEN POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Entry: $184.84 on 2026-09-16
Confluence: 4/7 (8d before entry)
Stop Loss: $170.73 (trailing chandelier, as of the last close)
A new entry today would stop at $157.64
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
65.0%
Past Total Return
+62.1%
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Avg Trade
+10.5%
Trades
20
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the QCOM rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a BUY entry rating to QCOM based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (43) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 12 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($7.24) indicates high volatility (4.2% of price), suggesting potential moves of 8.4%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 11 of 18 historical trades (61.1%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +8.7% per trade.
Firing at the 2026-09-21 setup (25d ago) — Valid Breakout (3) · EMA Trend Alignment (2).
Not firing at the 2026-09-21 setup (25d ago): RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 5/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 5/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✓ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why QCOM can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 5/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ QCOM — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $172.11 | Volume | 12.5M |
| Avg Volume | 12.0M (~$2.1B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 1.65 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $178.90 | EMA 50 | $177.99 |
| EMA 200 | $172.14 | VWAP | $173.96 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 12.35 | Distance from EMA 20 | -3.8% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 43.17 | MACD | -1.24 |
| MACD Signal | 0.49 | MACD Histogram | -1.72 |
| Stochastic %K | 17.19 | Stochastic %D | 15.07 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $201.87 | Bollinger Middle | $183.67 |
| Bollinger Lower | $165.47 | Band Position | 18.2% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $7.24 | ATR as % of price | 4.2% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 5/7 (last fired 2026-09-21, 25d ago) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | BUY — fired 2026-09-21 (25d ago) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $183.8B | Revenue | $44.1B |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 17.0 | Revenue Growth | -4.0% |
| Trailing P/E | 19.9 | Gross Margin | 54.2% |
| Price/Sales | 4.17 | Operating Margin | 18.5% |
| Price/Book | 6.58 | Profit Margin | 21.0% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2028E CAGR) | 0.59 | ROE | 33.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $187.7B | Free Cash Flow | $10.2B |
| EPS (Forward) | $10.12 | Dividend Yield | 2.14% |
| 52-Week Range | $121.99 - $259.92 | Institutional Ownership | 83.6% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | $154.58 | +11.34% | $143.89 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-02 | 2022-12-22 | $115.58 | $101.80 | -11.92% | Loss |
| 2023-01-23 | 2023-03-13 | $120.52 | $105.90 | -12.14% | Loss |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-04-20 | $118.07 | $109.79 | -7.01% | Loss |
| 2023-05-04 | 2023-08-16 | $98.63 | $102.64 | +4.07% | Win |
| 2023-11-06 | 2023-12-28 | $112.55 | $137.75 | +22.39% | Win |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-07-25 | $143.51 | $167.17 | +16.48% | Win |
| 2024-12-20 | 2025-03-03 | $147.24 | $147.94 | +0.48% | Win |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-21 | $130.92 | $146.50 | +11.91% | Win |
| 2025-08-18 | 2026-01-06 | $154.78 | $179.64 | +16.06% | Win |
| 2026-02-05 | 2026-04-28 | $134.20 | $148.64 | +10.76% | Win |
Summary: 18 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed volatility ATR-based)
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