Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs PM a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Solid business · model timing: bullish, no fresh entry setup · rating WAIT: price is extended (2.8 volatility ATR above the 50-day EMA). Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open PM Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on PM stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 4/7 (last setup 2026-10-05, 11d ago)
Why: PM carries a WAIT rating because the underlying business is solid (Investment Quality 68/100) and relative strength is positive versus the S&P 500, but trend strength is still emerging (ADX 20) and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 4/7). A breakout above $205.99 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $192.54 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 0.75:1 to the analyst target $212.71, against a stop at $195.21.
- Model timing: GREEN · BULLISH, NO FRESH ENTRY SETUP.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x volatility ATR stop sits at $169.82, 17.2% below the current $205.20, fixed at the 2026-05-11 entry.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +10.4% YoY with a 40.0% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 24.4x.
- Wall Street: average target $212.71 (+3.7%) from 12 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $192.54 (-6.2%), nearest resistance $205.99 (+0.4%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — EXTENDED
● fired ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on PM?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: TRIM — Price is extended and reward:risk is down to 0.75:1.
If you don't: WAIT — Price is extended: -2.5% from the 52-week high (extended within 3%); 2.8 volatility ATR above the 50-day EMA (extended above 2)
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$205.20
Buy Stop Loss
$195.21
Distance: 5%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (new entry)
$195.21
Distance: 5%
2.0x ATR · trails after +1R/+2R
ATR 14 Day
$4.99
Volatility
ADX Strength
20.4
Emerging trend
No adaptive position open. Adaptive rule: 2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending).
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does PM's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is GREEN · BULLISH, NO FRESH ENTRY SETUP and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Solid business, decent entry. PM clears 58 on both the business and the entry price.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving PM's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 20 | +8 | |
| Revenue Growth +10.4% YoY | +7 | |
| Momentum RSI 65, MACD momentum bullish | +5 | |
| Relative Strength +4.3% vs S&P 500 (3M) | +4 | |
| Profitability Margin 26%, ROE 0% | +2 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +2 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 24.4, PEG 2.7 | +0 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.4% of price | -1 | |
| Earnings Growth -7.5% YoY | -9 |
Net Factor Score: +18 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could PM stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for PM over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $237.66 (+15.8%)
If PM reclaims the $205.99 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $237.66. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Defensive.
🔴 The Bear Case — $185.72 (-9.5%)
Failure to hold the $192.54 support level opens a slide toward $185.72 — a support level (-9.5% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $195.21 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 20 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $192.54 and $205.99 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying PM now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on PM right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $212.71; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $195.21. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model entry held since 2026-05-11 · +14.6% · against its own $169.82 stop, to TODAY's target — the model already holds a stronger cost basis than any new entry can get | $179.08 | $9.26 | $33.63 | 3.63:1 |
| Today at $205.20 | $205.20 | $9.99 | $7.51 | 0.75:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs PM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Philip Morris International Inc. · Consumer Defensive · Tobacco. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs PM outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +8.3% | +4.3% | +24.2% |
| Consumer Defensive (XLP) | +3.0% | +3.5% | +24.6% |
PM 3-month return: +7.4% · Leadership: BROAD LEADER — outperforming the market, its sector, and peers
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability PM stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 51% vs 55% · 5d 53% vs 56% · 20d 54% vs 59%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Consumer Defensive (13 peers)Is PM cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 13 Consumer Defensive peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ PM vs. Its Closest PeersHow does PM compare to MO and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Tobacco from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files PM beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | PM (this report) | MO |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $319.8B | $125.4B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +10.4% | +1.2% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 24.4x | 13.2x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2027E CAGR) | 2.68 | — |
| Operating Margin | 40.0% | 76.4% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 20.4 | 17.8 |
MO (Altria Group, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded PM recently?
No rating changes in 90 days; 6 ratings reaffirmed.
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on PM?
Overall: Slightly Bullish · 2 bullish · 0 bearish · 7 neutral of 9 headlines (net score +1.8 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- Philip Morris: A Rising Dividend And A Safe Harbor Ahead Of Q3
Seeking Alpha • Oct 06Philip Morris International (PM) is positioned as a flight-to-safety stock, offering a rising income stream and resilience in a higher-rate environmen...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952142-philip-morris-a-ris... - Philip Morris: Strong Growth, 9% Dividend Growth, And More Upside Potential
Seeking Alpha • Oct 06Philip Morris is a growth and income play, leveraging its transition to smoke-free products for robust total returns. PM delivered Q2 organic revenue ...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952179-philip-morris-stron...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $179.08 on 2026-05-11
Confluence: 6/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $169.82 (fixed at entry)
A new entry today would stop at $195.21
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
47.1%
Past Total Return
+52.6%
Max Drawdown
-20.4%
Avg Trade
+5.9%
Trades
17
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $195.21 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
56.5%
Past Total Return
+73.9%
Max Drawdown
-11.1%
Avg Trade
+5.4%
Trades
23
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the PM rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT entry rating to PM based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (65) is currently showing strong momentum.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 20 indicates an emerging trend (20-25). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($4.99) indicates moderate volatility (2.4% of price), suggesting potential moves of 4.9%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 8 of 17 historical trades (47.1%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +5.9% per trade.
Firing at the 2026-10-05 setup (11d ago) — EMA Trend Alignment (2).
Not firing at the 2026-10-05 setup (11d ago): Valid Breakout, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger. Not determinable from this run: RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 4/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 4/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | — |
This is why PM can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 4/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ PM — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $205.20 | Volume | 6.2M |
| Avg Volume | 4.7M (~$961M/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 0.36 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $195.76 | EMA 50 | $191.12 |
| EMA 200 | $178.05 | VWAP | $204.23 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 20.40 | Distance from EMA 20 | +4.8% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 64.78 | MACD | 3.96 |
| MACD Signal | 2.71 | MACD Histogram | 1.25 |
| Stochastic %K | 79.58 | Stochastic %D | 83.63 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $206.82 | Bollinger Middle | $193.82 |
| Bollinger Lower | $180.81 | Band Position | 93.8% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $4.99 | ATR as % of price | 2.4% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 4/7 (last setup 2026-10-05, 11d ago) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | None in the last 30 days — a setup triggers a trade at 5/7 |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $319.8B | Revenue | $42.5B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 24.4 | Revenue Growth | +10.4% |
| Trailing P/E | 29.5 | Gross Margin | 67.5% |
| Price/Sales | 7.52 | Operating Margin | 40.0% |
| Price/Book | -37.26 | Profit Margin | 25.6% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2027E CAGR) | 2.68 | ROE | 0.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $364.9B | Free Cash Flow | $9.7B |
| EPS (Forward) | $8.40 | Dividend Yield | 3.12% |
| 52-Week Range | $142.11 - $210.45 | Institutional Ownership | 84.4% (largest: Capital World Investors) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $179.08 | +14.59% | $169.82 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-14 | 2023-05-05 | $85.60 | $82.23 | -3.94% | Loss |
| 2023-06-27 | 2023-08-18 | $84.20 | $82.28 | -2.28% | Loss |
| 2023-09-27 | 2024-01-31 | $79.86 | $81.44 | +1.98% | Win |
| 2024-02-01 | 2024-02-05 | $83.63 | $82.14 | -1.78% | Loss |
| 2024-03-13 | 2024-04-08 | $85.45 | $82.09 | -3.93% | Loss |
| 2024-04-22 | 2024-09-09 | $85.49 | $117.35 | +37.26% | Win |
| 2024-10-04 | 2024-12-26 | $110.89 | $114.58 | +3.33% | Win |
| 2025-01-28 | 2025-07-28 | $121.40 | $150.96 | +24.35% | Win |
| 2025-10-21 | 2026-02-25 | $146.81 | $184.99 | +26.01% | Win |
| 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-23 | $162.61 | $160.52 | -1.28% | Loss |
Summary: 17 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed volatility ATR-based)
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