PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs PEP a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Average business · model timing: bullish, no fresh entry setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open PEP Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on PEP stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 3/7 (last setup 2026-09-21, 25d ago)
Why: PEP carries a ACCUMULATE rating because fundamentals are middling (Investment Quality 47/100), trend strength is still emerging (ADX 24), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 3/7). A breakout above $135.72 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $129.74 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 2.08:1 to the analyst target $142.85, against a stop at $126.04.
- Model timing: GREEN · BULLISH, NO FRESH ENTRY SETUP · BREAKOUT FADED.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x volatility ATR stop sits at $124.60, 5.2% below the current $131.49, fixed at the 2025-07-16 entry.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +5.6% YoY with a 16.9% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 15.6x.
- Wall Street: average target $142.85 (+8.6%) from 6 Buy, 18 Hold, 1 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $129.74 (-1.3%), nearest resistance $135.72 (+3.2%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BELOW TREND
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on PEP?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: HOLD — Thesis intact, but no edge in adding here.
If you don't: ACCUMULATE — Reward:risk improves from 2.08:1 today to 2.73:1 at $127.98.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$131.49
Buy Stop Loss
$126.04
Distance: 4%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (new entry)
$126.04
Distance: 4%
2.0x ATR · trails after +1R/+2R
ATR 14 Day
$2.73
Volatility
ADX Strength
24.3
Emerging trend
No adaptive position open. Adaptive rule: 2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending).
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does PEP's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is GREEN · BULLISH, NO FRESH ENTRY SETUP · BREAKOUT FADED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
PEP: Investment Quality 47/100 vs. Entry Quality 59/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving PEP's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +17.4% YoY | +18 | |
| Profitability Margin 11%, ROE 52% | +16 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 15.6, PEG 0.0 | +8 | |
| Momentum RSI 55, MACD momentum bullish | +5 | |
| Revenue Growth +5.6% YoY | +4 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.1% of price | +0 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bearish | -2 | |
| Relative Strength -5.0% vs S&P 500 (3M) | -5 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 24 | -8 |
Net Factor Score: +36 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could PEP stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for PEP over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $144.13 (+9.6%)
If PEP reclaims the $135.72 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $144.13 — a resistance level. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Defensive.
🔴 The Bear Case — $123.47 (-6.1%)
Failure to hold the $129.74 support level opens a slide toward $123.47 — a support level (-6.1% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $126.04 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 24 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $129.74 and $135.72 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying PEP now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on PEP right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $142.85; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $126.04. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
A second analyst panel reads PEP differently, and the two readings are materially different. The panel above averages $142.85 (2.08:1); an independent panel averages $141.59 (1.85:1). Neither is the correction of the other — they poll different analysts. Treat the reward leg as a range, not a point.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model entry held since 2025-07-16 · +2.1% · against its own $124.60 stop, to TODAY's target — the model already holds a stronger cost basis than any new entry can get | $128.82 | $4.22 | $14.03 | 3.32:1 |
| Today at $131.49 | $131.49 | $5.45 | $11.36 | 2.08:1 |
| Preferred new entry accumulation zone $127.98–$130.54 · stop $122.53 | $127.98 | $5.45 | $14.87 | 2.73:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs PEP stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: PepsiCo, Inc. · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs PEP outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -2.0% | -5.0% | -22.8% |
| Consumer Defensive (XLP) | -7.3% | -5.8% | -22.5% |
PEP 3-month return: -1.9% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability PEP stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 50% vs 51% · 5d 52% vs 50% · 20d 53% vs 53%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has beaten that baseline on 1 of 3 horizons here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Consumer Defensive (13 peers)Is PEP cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 13 Consumer Defensive peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ PEP vs. Its Closest PeersHow does PEP compare to KO and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Beverages - Non-Alcoholic from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files PEP beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | PEP (this report) | KO | MNST | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $179.2B | $404.0B | $89.6B | $82.0B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +5.6% | +6.7% | +20.2% | +4.1% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 15.6x | 28.4x | 39.4x | 20.9x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 4.00 | 3.55 | 2.37 |
| Operating Margin | 16.9% | 34.9% | 29.2% | 22.0% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 24.3 | 22.5 | 20.1 | 18.9 |
KO (The Coca-Cola Company — closest business match), MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation), MDLZ (Mondelez International, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded PEP recently?
2 rating changes in 90 days (2 downgrades); 14 ratings reaffirmed (not listed).
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | DOWNGRADE | Overweight → Neutral | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | DOWNGRADE | Buy → Hold | Sep 28, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on PEP?
Overall: Slightly Bearish · 2 bullish · 14 bearish · 17 neutral of 33 headlines (net score -2.3 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- Pepsi Cratered in 2026: Goldman Sachs Says It's Going Up 40% Soon
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 09PepsiCo has cratered while every major beverage rival rallied, and now Goldman Sachs sees a 40% rebound ahead. But that call rests on three pillars, a...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/09/pepsi-cratered-in... - PepsiCo raising prices on Doritos, Ruffles, SunChips and some sodas after recent cuts
Fox Business • Oct 09PepsiCo is raising prices on Doritos, Ruffles and SunChips by single-digit percentages just months after slashing prices to win back shoppers....
Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/pepsico-raising-prices-do...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 14)
- KFC switch to Coke puts PepsiCo's food service ties in focus, analysts say
Reuters • Oct 16KFC switch to Coke puts PepsiCo's food service ties in focus, analysts say...
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/kfc-switch-... - KFC Had Pepsi for Nearly 40 Years. Coca-Cola Stock Is Trending After Winning It Over
Benzinga • Oct 16The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) is trending Friday after KFC said Thursday that its U.S. restaurants will switch from PepsiCo to Coca-Cola beverages n...
Source: https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62406875... - KFC signs Coca-Cola on as new beverage partner, ditching PepsiCo
New York Post • Oct 15Losing a beverage partnership would come as a blow to PepsiCo, which is struggling to improve sales in the country....
Source: https://nypost.com/2026/10/15/business/kfc-signs-coca-cola-o... - KFC to sign Coca-Cola on as beverage partner, ditching PepsiCo, WSJ reports
Reuters • Oct 15KFC to sign Coca-Cola on as beverage partner, ditching PepsiCo, WSJ reports...
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/kfc-sign-coca-cola-beverage... - KFC Is Moving to Ditch Pepsi for Coke in Thousands of Restaurants
WSJ • Oct 15Chicken chain's plan for new a beverage partner would deal a blow to PepsiCo's U.S. business....
Source: https://www.wsj.com/business/kfc-is-moving-to-ditch-pepsi-fo...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bearish, reflecting concerns and negative coverage. This suggests caution among market participants. Consider defensive strategies and monitor for potential support levels or reversal signals.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $128.82 on 2025-07-16
Confluence: none in the 30d before entry
Stop Loss: $124.60 (fixed at entry)
A new entry today would stop at $126.04
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
58.3%
Past Total Return
+3.6%
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Avg Trade
+0.7%
Trades
12
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $126.04 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
57.9%
Past Total Return
+7.4%
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Avg Trade
+0.5%
Trades
19
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the PEP rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a ACCUMULATE entry rating to PEP based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (55) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 24 indicates an emerging trend (20-25). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bearish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($2.73) indicates moderate volatility (2.1% of price), suggesting potential moves of 4.1%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 7 of 12 historical trades (58.3%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +0.7% per trade.
Firing at the 2026-09-21 setup (25d ago) — RSI Oversold (1) · Below Lower Bollinger (1) · Volume Accumulation (1).
Not firing at the 2026-09-21 setup (25d ago): Valid Breakout, EMA Trend Alignment, RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×).
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 3/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 3/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✓ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✓ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✓ |
This is why PEP can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 3/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ PEP — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $131.49 | Volume | 10.7M |
| Avg Volume | 8.5M (~$1.1B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 0.36 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $128.95 | EMA 50 | $132.40 |
| EMA 200 | $139.58 | VWAP | $130.63 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 24.29 | Distance from EMA 20 | +2.0% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 54.60 | MACD | -1.44 |
| MACD Signal | -2.26 | MACD Histogram | 0.81 |
| Stochastic %K | 74.22 | Stochastic %D | 65.70 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $131.86 | Bollinger Middle | $127.78 |
| Bollinger Lower | $123.71 | Band Position | 95.5% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $2.73 | ATR as % of price | 2.1% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 3/7 (last setup 2026-09-21, 25d ago) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | None in the last 30 days — a setup triggers a trade at 5/7 |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $179.2B | Revenue | $98.2B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 15.6 | Revenue Growth | +5.6% |
| Trailing P/E | 16.5 | Gross Margin | 54.3% |
| Price/Sales | 1.82 | Operating Margin | 16.9% |
| Price/Book | 8.05 | Profit Margin | 11.1% |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | ROE | 52.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $220.1B | Free Cash Flow | $9.0B |
| EPS (Forward) | $8.41 | Dividend Yield | 4.50% |
| 52-Week Range | $123.47 - $171.48 | Institutional Ownership | 81.4% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-16 | $128.82 | +2.07% | $124.60 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-29 | 2021-04-21 | $121.41 | $123.23 | +1.50% | Win |
| 2021-07-13 | 2022-02-23 | $129.18 | $142.70 | +10.46% | Win |
| 2022-04-05 | 2022-04-28 | $146.06 | $152.95 | +4.72% | Win |
| 2022-10-21 | 2023-05-15 | $151.17 | $171.91 | +13.72% | Win |
| 2023-05-30 | 2023-06-13 | $160.71 | $161.77 | +0.66% | Win |
| 2023-06-16 | 2023-08-18 | $165.78 | $158.78 | -4.22% | Loss |
| 2024-04-24 | 2024-06-11 | $161.64 | $151.58 | -6.22% | Loss |
| 2024-07-11 | 2024-10-03 | $150.55 | $155.94 | +3.58% | Win |
| 2024-10-14 | 2024-10-30 | $162.94 | $153.79 | -5.62% | Loss |
| 2025-01-10 | 2025-04-28 | $133.11 | $125.92 | -5.40% | Loss |
Summary: 12 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed volatility ATR-based)
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