📌 Is NFLX a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is currently rated WAIT (Signal Strength: 0/7). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 29.7, Revenue Growth: +16.2%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 42). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $108.95 before adding exposure.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open NFLX Analysis ↗
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT rating to NFLX based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 43% of the time over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +9.4% per trade.
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for NFLX over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 20%)
If NFLX reclaims the $108.95 resistance level (Bollinger Upper), algorithmic targets shift to $114.56. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Communication Services.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 50%)
Failure to hold the $86.23 support zone (Bollinger Lower) triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $83.31 liquidity zone (-9.5% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 22 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $86.23 and $108.95 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $92.06 | Market Cap | $387.6B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 42.9% | Forward P/E | 24.0x |
| Past Total Return | +48.6% | Analyst Target | $114.56 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 42 / 22 | Upside to Target | +24.4% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +16.2% |
| Profit Factor | 3.93 | Institutional Own. | 84.3% |
| Position Entry | 2026-03-09 @ $98.32 | Analyst Ratings | 35 Buy / 10 Hold / 1 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | -6.4% |
MAINTAIN POSITION - Current position showing -6.4% unrealized gain. Use intelligent stop loss strategy below.
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Hybrid adapts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Fixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $98.32 on 2026-03-09
Confluence: nan
Stop Loss: $86.23
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
43%
Past Total Return
+48.6%
Max Drawdown
-18.1%
Avg Trade
+9.4%
Trades
21
Adaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $98.32 on 2026-03-09
Confluence: nan
Stop Loss: $87.69
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
43%
Past Total Return
+48.6%
Max Drawdown
-18.1%
Avg Trade
+9.4%
Trades
21
Current Price
$92.06
Buy Stop Loss
$86.23
Distance: 6%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$84.04
Distance: 9%
Hybrid 2.75x
ATR 14 Day
$2.91
Volatility
ADX Strength
22.2
Emerging trend
Position down -6% - Wider stops for recovery
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| EMA 20 | $95.14 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | $94.55 | Bearish |
| RSI (14) | 41.9 | Neutral range |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 22.2 | Emerging trend (20-25) |
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens | REITERATED | Market Perform → Market Perform | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Keybanc | REITERATED | Overweight → Overweight | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Citizens | REITERATED | Market Perform → Market Perform | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | UPGRADE | Neutral → Buy | Apr 06, 2026 |
| Citizens | INITIATED | Market Perform | Mar 30, 2026 |
| CFRA | UPGRADE | Hold → Buy | Mar 06, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | UPGRADE | Neutral → Overweight | Mar 02, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Average Target: | $114.56 | High Target: | $151.40 |
| Current Price: | $92.06 | Low Target: | $80.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +24.4% | Number of Analysts: | 44 |
Based on backtest performance (Win Rate: 42.9%, Avg Return: +9.4%) and analyst consensus (Target: $114.56, +24.4% upside), an OVERWEIGHT exposure may be considered. Risk/Reward ratio of 1.63:1 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns. Current open position shows -6.4% unrealized gain.
Netflix, Inc. operates in the Communication Services sector (Entertainment). Current valuation of 24.0x forward P/E reflects reasonable multiples relative to growth prospects. Operating margin of 32.3% shows strong profitability.
Fundamental Outlook: Strong Growth - Positive operating leverage with revenue and earnings acceleration
Overall Score: 3.9/10 - Slightly Bullish
The communication services sector is a concentration bet dressed up as diversification. After the 2018 GICS reshuffle pulled Meta, Alphabet, Netflix, ...
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Netflix’s ‘Lord of the Flies,’ Apple’s ‘Star City’ and the return of Hulu’s ‘Deli Boys’ are among the highlights of the coming month...
Roku underlined its status as a potential streaming wars winner by beating on first-quarter earnings and raising its guidance, sending its shares hig...
Zacks.com users have recently been watching Netflix (NFLX) quite a bit. Thus, it is worth knowing the facts that could determine the stock's prospects...
At the very least, it didn't cost the company tens of billions of dollars....
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $387.6B |
| P/E Ratio (Forward) | 24.0 |
| EPS (Forward) | $3.84 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52-Week Range | $75.01 - $134.12 |
| Beta | 1.67 |
| Avg Volume | 46.0M |
Comprehensive Technical Data for Quantitative Analysis
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Price | $92.06 | Volume | 30.3M |
| EMA 20 | $95.14 | EMA 50 | $94.55 |
| EMA 200 | $98.65 | Current Price | $92.06 |
| RSI (14) | 41.89 | MACD | -0.983 |
| MACD Signal | 0.007 | MACD Histogram | -0.990 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 22.21 | Volatility (ATR 14) | $2.91 |
| Bollinger Upper | $108.95 | Bollinger Lower | $86.23 |
| Stochastic %K | 13.61 | Stochastic %D | 11.79 |
| VWAP | $92.89 | Bollinger Middle | $97.59 |
| Confluence Score | 0/7 | Trade Signal | NONE |
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $387.6B | Revenue | $46.9B |
| Forward P/E | 24.0 | Revenue Growth | +16.2% |
| Trailing P/E | 29.7 | Gross Margin | 49.0% |
| Price/Sales | 8.27 | Operating Margin | 32.3% |
| Price/Book | 14.60 | Profit Margin | 28.5% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.37 | ROE | 48.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $392.3B | Free Cash Flow | $26.0B |
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | $98.32 | -6.37% | $91.96 |
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-18 | 2023-07-25 | $47.48 | $42.77 | -9.92% | Loss |
| 2023-08-18 | 2023-09-19 | $40.45 | $39.62 | -2.06% | Loss |
| 2023-10-18 | 2024-02-16 | $34.62 | $58.40 | +68.68% | Win |
| 2024-04-22 | 2024-04-30 | $55.46 | $55.06 | -0.71% | Loss |
| 2024-05-09 | 2024-12-11 | $61.21 | $93.66 | +53.01% | Win |
| 2025-01-22 | 2025-04-04 | $95.40 | $85.59 | -10.29% | Loss |
| 2025-04-22 | 2025-08-05 | $104.03 | $114.79 | +10.34% | Win |
| 2025-08-12 | 2025-10-27 | $122.53 | $109.46 | -10.67% | Loss |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-12-11 | $106.97 | $94.09 | -12.04% | Loss |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-02-17 | $85.36 | $77.00 | -9.79% | Loss |
Summary: 21 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis based on historical data through 2026-05-01. Fundamental data auto-fetched from Yahoo Finance. Please conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Report Generated: May 02, 2026 at 01:30 PM
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