McDonald's Corporation (MCD) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs MCD a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Solid business · model timing: unconfirmed bounce · rating WAIT: needs a close above $252.06 on rising volume. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
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📊 Open MCD Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on MCD stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 4/7 (last setup 2026-10-05, 11d ago)
Why: MCD carries a WAIT rating because the underlying business is solid (Investment Quality 61/100), but the trend is strong (ADX 42), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 4/7). A breakout above $252.06 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $231.14 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 5.62:1 to the analyst target $292.59, against a stop at $234.15.
- Model timing: RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · BOUNCE — NO CONFIRMATION.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $4.41 below entry ($8.82–$13.23).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +3.7% YoY with a 46.5% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 18.9x.
- Wall Street: average target $292.59 (+20.4%) from 19 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $231.14 (-4.9%), nearest resistance $252.06 (+3.7%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BELOW TREND
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on MCD?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: the model holds no position.
If you don't: WAIT — Needs a break above $252.06 on rising volume.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$242.97
Buy Stop Loss
$234.15
Distance: 4%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (new entry)
$234.15
Distance: 4%
2.0x ATR · trails after +1R/+2R
ATR 14 Day
$4.41
Volatility
ADX Strength
41.8
Strong trend
No adaptive position open. Adaptive rule: 2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending).
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does MCD's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · BOUNCE — NO CONFIRMATION and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Solid business, decent entry. MCD clears 58 on both the business and the entry price.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving MCD's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Valuation Fwd P/E 18.9, PEG 2.9 | +8 | |
| Earnings Growth +5.7% YoY | +7 | |
| Profitability Margin 32%, ROE 0% | +6 | |
| Momentum RSI 52, MACD momentum bullish | +5 | |
| Revenue Growth +3.7% YoY | +2 | |
| Volatility ATR 1.8% of price | +0 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bearish | -2 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 42 | -12 | |
| Relative Strength -11.7% vs S&P 500 (3M) | -12 |
Net Factor Score: +2 — Balanced / mixed. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could MCD stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for MCD over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $261.24 (+7.5%)
If MCD reclaims the $252.06 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $261.24 — a resistance level. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Cyclical.
🔴 The Bear Case — $231.14 (-4.9%)
Failure to hold the $231.14 support level opens a slide toward $231.14 — a support level (-4.9% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $234.15 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 42 (strong trend), momentum suggests a directional move is imminent between $231.14 and $252.06 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying MCD now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on MCD right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $292.59; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $234.15. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today at $242.97 | $242.97 | $8.82 | $49.62 | 5.62:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs MCD stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: McDonald's Corporation · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs MCD outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -2.6% | -11.7% | -28.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical (XLY) | -3.4% | -6.9% | -14.7% |
MCD 3-month return: -8.6% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability MCD stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 49% vs 51% · 5d 51% vs 53% · 20d 49% vs 53%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Restaurants (18 peers)Is MCD cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 18 Restaurants peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ MCD vs. Its Closest PeersHow does MCD compare to SBUX and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Restaurants from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files MCD beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | MCD (this report) | SBUX | YUM | CMG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $171.9B | $111.2B | $41.1B | $37.8B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +3.7% | -1.4% | +12.2% | +9.3% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 18.9x | 30.9x | 23.1x | 26.0x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2030E CAGR) | 2.85 | 1.65 | 2.29 | 1.47 |
| Operating Margin | 46.5% | 12.9% | 32.8% | 16.1% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 41.8 | 34.7 | 23.4 | 16.1 |
SBUX (Starbucks Corporation — closest business match), YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.), CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded MCD recently?
1 rating change in 90 days (1 initiation); 30 ratings reaffirmed (not listed).
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | INITIATED | Neutral | Sep 16, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on MCD?
Overall: Slightly Bearish · 4 bullish · 13 bearish · 22 neutral of 39 headlines (net score -1.5 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 4)
- Why the Market Dipped But McDonald's (MCD) Gained Today
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 08McDonald's (MCD) closed the most recent trading day at $236.9, moving +2.61% from the previous trading session....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3003250/why-the-market-dipp... - McDonald's: Same-Store Sales Are An Overrated Metric (Upgrade)
Seeking Alpha • Oct 08MCD's 30%+ drop has eliminated prior valuation concerns, with a P/E of 19x below 20-year average, a 3.2% dividend yield, and an FCF yield of 5.2% requ...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952688-mcdonalds-same-stor... - McDonald's: The Chip Trade I Can Stomach
Seeking Alpha • Oct 07I rate MCD a Strong Buy at $233.04, versus my $264.71 earnings-based fair value and $229.78 DCF value. It represents roughly 7% of my portfolio. With ...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952599-mcdonalds-the-chip-... - Domino's Pizza Pauses Dividend Growth While McDonald's Accelerates Payouts
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 04McDonald's is handing income investors bigger checks each year while Domino's holds its payout flat, and the reason behind that gap reveals which pizz...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/04/dominos-pizza-pau...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 13)
- McDonald's Stock Down 23% in 6 Months: Should Investors Buy the Dip?
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 14MCD's shares have plunged 23% in six months as weak U.S. sales, value-menu execution and lower earnings estimates raise questions about whether invest...
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3007228/mcdonald-s-stock-do... - McDonald's Is Between a Rock and a Hard Place. Here's Why the Sinking Fast Food Stock Could Still Go Lower
The Motley Fool • Oct 12The rising price of beef may prompt McDonald's to raise its prices at an inopportune time. The company's growth has been minimal, and price increases ...
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/12/mcdonald-s-is-betw... - McDonald's is leaning into chicken and drinks to grow. New data shows it could be a tough task
CNBC • Oct 12McDonald's is targeting growth in chicken and beverages, but Consumer Edge data shows Chick-fil-A and coffee chains gaining in customer spending....
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/mcdonalds-chicken-beverage-g... - Chipotle Slides 3% as Starbucks Rules Out Acquisition; Starbucks Stock Rises While McDonald's Stock Slips
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 12Takeover hopes that had been lifting Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG | CMG Price Prediction) shares are fading after the most logical buyer stepped a...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/12/chipotle-slides-3... - We tried McDonald's Snack Wraps in the US and UK. We can see why the British are up in arms about the 'downgraded' item.
Business Insider • Oct 10McDonald's just relaunched its fan-favorite Snack Wrap in the UK. Fans were left disappointed by the "downgraded" menu item....
Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/review-mcdonalds-snack-wrap-...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bearish, reflecting concerns and negative coverage. This suggests caution among market participants. Consider defensive strategies and monitor for potential support levels or reversal signals.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $234.15 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
46.7%
Past Total Return
-2.3%
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Avg Trade
+2.9%
Trades
15
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $234.15 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
45.0%
Past Total Return
+2.2%
Max Drawdown
-12.6%
Avg Trade
+2.3%
Trades
20
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the MCD rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT entry rating to MCD based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (52) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 42 indicates a strong trend (25-50) supporting directional moves. News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bearish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($4.41) indicates moderate volatility (1.8% of price), suggesting potential moves of 3.6%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 7 of 15 historical trades (46.7%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +2.9% per trade.
Firing at the 2026-10-05 setup (11d ago) — RSI Oversold (1).
Not firing at the 2026-10-05 setup (11d ago): Valid Breakout, EMA Trend Alignment, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), Below Lower Bollinger. Not determinable from this run: RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 4/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 4/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✓ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | — |
This is why MCD can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 4/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ MCD — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $242.97 | Volume | 7.2M |
| Avg Volume | 5.2M (~$1.3B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 0.45 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $239.59 | EMA 50 | $248.69 |
| EMA 200 | $273.02 | VWAP | $243.57 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 41.76 | Distance from EMA 20 | +1.4% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 52.31 | MACD | -3.33 |
| MACD Signal | -5.33 | MACD Histogram | 2.00 |
| Stochastic %K | 88.17 | Stochastic %D | 75.09 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $247.62 | Bollinger Middle | $236.80 |
| Bollinger Lower | $225.98 | Band Position | 78.5% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $4.41 | ATR as % of price | 1.8% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 4/7 (last setup 2026-10-05, 11d ago) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | None in the last 30 days — a setup triggers a trade at 5/7 |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $171.9B | Revenue | $27.7B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 18.9 | Revenue Growth | +3.7% |
| Trailing P/E | 19.7 | Gross Margin | 57.4% |
| Price/Sales | 6.21 | Operating Margin | 46.5% |
| Price/Book | -168.03 | Profit Margin | 31.7% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2030E CAGR) | 2.85 | ROE | 0.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $225.7B | Free Cash Flow | $6.3B |
| EPS (Forward) | $12.88 | Dividend Yield | 3.18% |
| 52-Week Range | $229.20 - $341.75 | Institutional Ownership | 76.4% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-27 | $232.65 | $215.37 | -7.43% | Loss |
| 2022-10-27 | 2023-05-09 | $241.22 | $273.02 | +13.18% | Win |
| 2023-11-17 | 2024-05-28 | $256.49 | $238.60 | -6.98% | Loss |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-11-22 | $254.27 | $276.55 | +8.76% | Win |
| 2024-11-25 | 2025-01-14 | $282.18 | $269.87 | -4.36% | Loss |
| 2025-02-10 | 2025-03-10 | $295.60 | $305.81 | +3.46% | Win |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-10-01 | $289.08 | $292.98 | +1.35% | Win |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-11-03 | $302.33 | $288.94 | -4.43% | Loss |
| 2025-11-14 | 2026-03-26 | $299.33 | $304.68 | +1.79% | Win |
| 2026-06-25 | 2026-09-18 | $262.67 | $248.24 | -5.49% | Loss |
Summary: 15 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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