Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs LRCX a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Exceptional business · model timing: exited. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open LRCX Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on LRCX stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days)
Why: LRCX carries a ACCUMULATE rating because valuation and fundamentals remain attractive (Investment Quality 95/100), but the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 18), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and no fresh entry trigger has fired (Signal Strength 0/7). A breakout above $265.09 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $250.23 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 3.61:1 to the analyst target $367.80, against a stop at $235.16.
- Model timing: RED · BEARISH, MODEL EXITED.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $14.39 below entry ($28.78–$43.17).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +30.0% YoY with a 37.4% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 27.7x.
- Wall Street: average target $367.80 (+39.3%) from 29 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $250.23 (-5.2%), nearest resistance $265.09 (+0.4%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BELOW TREND
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on LRCX?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: the model holds no position.
If you don't: ACCUMULATE — Reward:risk improves from 3.61:1 today to 4.09:1 at $250.23.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$263.94
Buy Stop Loss
$235.16
Distance: 11%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (new entry)
$235.16
Distance: 11%
2.0x ATR · trails after +1R/+2R
ATR 14 Day
$14.39
Volatility
ADX Strength
18.2
Weak/No Trend
No adaptive position open. Adaptive rule: 2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending).
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does LRCX's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, MODEL EXITED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Exceptional business, decent entry. LRCX clears 58 on both the business and the entry price.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving LRCX's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +34.8% YoY | +18 | |
| Profitability Margin 31%, ROE 65% | +16 | |
| Revenue Growth +30.0% YoY | +10 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 27.7, PEG 1.7 | +0 | |
| Trend EMA mixed, ADX 18 | +0 | |
| Sentiment Neutral | +0 | |
| Momentum RSI 30, MACD momentum bearish | -5 | |
| Volatility ATR 5.5% of price | -7 | |
| Relative Strength -17.0% vs S&P 500 (3M) | -12 |
Net Factor Score: +20 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could LRCX stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for LRCX over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $321.35 (+21.8%)
If LRCX reclaims the $265.09 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $321.35 — a resistance level. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Technology.
🔴 The Bear Case — $199.19 (-24.5%)
Failure to hold the $250.23 support level opens a slide toward $199.19 (-24.5% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $235.16 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 18 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $250.23 and $265.09 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying LRCX now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on LRCX right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $367.80; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $235.16. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today at $263.94 | $263.94 | $28.78 | $103.86 | 3.61:1 |
| Preferred new entry accumulation zone $250.23–$255.23 · stop $221.45 | $250.23 | $28.78 | $117.57 | 4.09:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs LRCX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Lam Research Corporation · Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs LRCX outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -2.2% | -17.0% | -9.2% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.4% | -18.4% | -20.3% |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | +1.8% | -10.5% | -17.5% |
LRCX 3-month return: -13.9% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability LRCX stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 50% vs 51% · 5d 53% vs 57% · 20d 55% vs 60%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Semiconductors (12 peers)Is LRCX cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 12 Semiconductors peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ LRCX vs. Its Closest PeersHow does LRCX compare to AMAT and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Semiconductor Equipment & Materials from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files LRCX beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | LRCX (this report) | AMAT | TXN | KLAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $330.3B | $324.8B | $252.5B | $216.3B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +30.0% | +24.8% | +22.8% | +15.2% |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 27.7x | 31.9x | 32.4x | 30.0x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2031E CAGR) | 1.72 | 1.08 | 3.49 | 1.99 |
| Operating Margin | 37.4% | 33.7% | 42.6% | 42.5% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 18.2 | 21.7 | 16.2 | 16.5 |
AMAT (Applied Materials, Inc. — closest business match), TXN (Texas Instruments Incorporated), KLAC (KLA Corporation). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded LRCX recently?
No rating changes in 90 days; 10 ratings reaffirmed.
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on LRCX?
Overall: Neutral · 5 bullish · 5 bearish · 20 neutral of 30 headlines (net score +0.1 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 5)
- Lam Research Corporation: Strong FY27 Setup Makes It A Solid Bet Ahead Of Q1
Seeking Alpha • Oct 13Lam Research delivered a record Q4 FY26, with revenue up nearly 30% year-on-year to $6.72 billion and strong performance across both segments. AI-driv...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4953637-lam-research-corpor... - Jim Cramer Calls Kulicke & Soffa ‘Terrific,' But Prefers These 2 Chip Equipment Stocks
Benzinga • Oct 09On CNBC's “Mad Money Lightning Round,” Jim Cramer said although Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:KLIC) is a “terrific” company, but he still...
Source: https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/26/10/6227... - Lam Research Stocks Fall 2.1% as AI Spending Lifts Target 33%
GuruFocus • Oct 08Lam Research (LRCX), the semiconductor etching-and-deposition equipment supplier, received a higher price target from Cantor Fitzgerald, yet shares st...
Source: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9113746/lam-research-stocks-f... - 4 Top Chip Stocks With Dependable Earnings to Ride the AI Boom
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 07NVIDIA, Applied Materials, TSMC and Lam Research pair strong EPS consistency with durable growth as AI fuels chip and equipment demand....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3001891/4-top-chip-stocks-w... - AI Drives Storage Demand: Will It Boost Lam Research's NAND Growth?
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 05LRCX sees NAND upside as AI boosts storage demand, with its served market per wafer set to double from 128 to 500-plus layers....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3000123/ai-drives-storage-d...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 5)
- Polen Focus Growth Portfolio Q3 2026 Portfolio Update
Seeking Alpha • Oct 15In Q3 2026, the Portfolio returned 4.46% (net of fees) compared to 0.92% for the Index. Top relative contributors to the Portfolio's performance inclu...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4954391-polen-focus-growth-... - Lam Research (LRCX) Dips More Than Broader Market: What You Should Know
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 14Lam Research (LRCX) reached $286.92 at the closing of the latest trading day, reflecting a -4.71% change compared to its last close....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3007560/lam-research-lrcx-d... - Semiconductor Equipment Stocks Slide as Investors Take Profits on a Huge Year: Applied Materials Sinks 7%, Lam Research and KLA Drop 4%
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 13Semiconductor equipment stocks are giving back ground after a strong year powered by artificial intelligence (AI) spending. Applied Materials (NASDAQ:...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/13/semiconductor-equ... - Lam Research (LRCX) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 08Lam Research (LRCX) closed the most recent trading day at $320.59, moving 2.71% from the previous trading session....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3003249/lam-research-lrcx-s... - Lam Research Stocks Fall as $390 Target Meets Earnings Test
GuruFocus • Oct 05Lam Research, the wafer-fabrication equipment supplier (LRCX), slipped approximately 0.8% at 11.14am ET to $344.64 in the October 5 snapshot, despite ...
Source: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9109733/lam-research-stocks-f...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is neutral, indicating balanced coverage without clear directional bias. This suggests market participants are waiting for catalysts or clearer signals. Monitor for changes in sentiment that could indicate emerging trends.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $235.16 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
66.7%
Past Total Return
+122.7%
Max Drawdown
-28.4%
Avg Trade
+19.7%
Trades
15
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $235.16 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
61.1%
Past Total Return
+135.9%
Max Drawdown
-21.2%
Avg Trade
+17.9%
Trades
18
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the LRCX rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a ACCUMULATE entry rating to LRCX based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (30) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 18 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Neutral).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($14.39) indicates high volatility (5.5% of price), suggesting potential moves of 10.9%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 10 of 15 historical trades (66.7%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +19.7% per trade.
Firing now — Below Lower Bollinger (1).
Not firing: Valid Breakout, EMA Trend Alignment, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold. Not determinable from this run: RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 0/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 0/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✓ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | — |
This is why LRCX can show a mixed trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 0/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ LRCX — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $263.94 | Volume | 11.3M |
| Avg Volume | 9.2M (~$2.4B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 1.85 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $305.79 | EMA 50 | $309.19 |
| EMA 200 | $275.32 | VWAP | $267.55 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 18.22 | Distance from EMA 20 | -13.7% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 30.28 | MACD | -5.68 |
| MACD Signal | 1.36 | MACD Histogram | -7.04 |
| Stochastic %K | 5.74 | Stochastic %D | 10.02 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $357.34 | Bollinger Middle | $314.21 |
| Bollinger Lower | $271.09 | Band Position | -8.3% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $14.39 | ATR as % of price | 5.5% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | SELL — fired 2026-10-15 (1d ago) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $330.3B | Revenue | $23.2B |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 27.7 | Revenue Growth | +30.0% |
| Trailing P/E | 45.8 | Gross Margin | 50.5% |
| Price/Sales | 14.22 | Operating Margin | 37.4% |
| Price/Book | 26.48 | Profit Margin | 31.3% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2031E CAGR) | 1.72 | ROE | 65.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $328.8B | Free Cash Flow | $3.1B |
| EPS (Forward) | $9.53 | Dividend Yield | 0.50% |
| 52-Week Range | $135.50 - $438.50 | Institutional Ownership | 88.8% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-09 | 2023-07-17 | $43.72 | $64.19 | +46.83% | Win |
| 2023-07-27 | 2023-09-20 | $68.26 | $60.36 | -11.57% | Loss |
| 2023-11-13 | 2023-12-27 | $65.69 | $77.75 | +18.36% | Win |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-02-16 | $80.82 | $90.57 | +12.07% | Win |
| 2024-05-21 | 2024-07-26 | $94.49 | $87.85 | -7.02% | Loss |
| 2024-09-10 | 2024-10-15 | $71.84 | $75.21 | +4.70% | Win |
| 2024-10-22 | 2025-03-11 | $71.90 | $72.70 | +1.11% | Win |
| 2025-05-13 | 2025-07-21 | $84.48 | $101.07 | +19.64% | Win |
| 2025-09-11 | 2026-07-28 | $114.82 | $269.32 | +134.56% | Win |
| 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-15 | $347.49 | $277.46 | -20.15% | Loss |
Summary: 15 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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