Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs LLY a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Great business, weak setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is LLY a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) reads ACCUMULATE for a new position (Signal Strength: 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days)). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 39.7, Revenue Growth: +47.7%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 56). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $1187.85 before adding exposure.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open LLY Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on LLY stock today?
- Reward:risk: 2.54:1 to the analyst target $1,348.69, against a stop at $1,118.51.
- Model timing: RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $32.48 below entry ($64.95–$97.43).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +47.7% YoY with a 54.2% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 32.4x.
- Wall Street: average target $1,348.69 (+14.0%) from 25 Buy, 4 Hold, 2 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $1,163.50 (-1.7%), nearest resistance $1,187.85 (+0.4%).
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does LLY carry this rating?
LLY carries a ACCUMULATE rating because valuation and fundamentals remain attractive (Investment Quality 87/100), but the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 14), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and no fresh entry trigger has fired (Signal Strength 0/7). A breakout above $1187.85 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $1163.50 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on LLY?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: the model holds no position.
If you don't: ACCUMULATE — Reward:risk improves to 3.31:1 at $1,133.59.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$1183.46
Buy Stop Loss
$1118.51
Distance: 5%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$1118.51
Distance: 5%
Hybrid 2.00x
ATR 14 Day
$32.48
Volatility
ADX Strength
13.9
Weak/No Trend
New position - Standard stop loss levels
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could LLY stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for LLY over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 20%)
If LLY reclaims the $1187.85 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $1348.69. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Healthcare.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 50%)
Failure to hold the $1163.50 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $1078.75 liquidity zone (-8.8% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 14 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $1163.50 and $1187.85 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying LLY now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much LLY should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy LLY now, and should you hold it if you already own it?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Price vs. its 50-day trend — CONSTRUCTIVE
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on LLY right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $1,348.69; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $1,118.51. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
Analyst figures are the consensus mean of the panel this report tracks. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere — including on our own live scanner — can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today at $1,183.46 | $1,183.46 | $64.95 | $165.23 | 2.54:1 |
| Accumulation anchor nearest level worth waiting for · zone $1,133.59–$1,156.26 · stop $1,068.64 | $1,133.59 | $64.95 | $215.10 | 3.31:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs LLY stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does LLY's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · BEARISH, WATCHING FOR EXIT · EXITED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
LLY: Investment Quality 87/100 vs. Entry Quality 54/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving LLY's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +26% YoY | +18 | |
| Profitability Margin 34%, ROE 102% | +16 | |
| Revenue Growth +48% YoY | +10 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 14 | +5 | |
| Momentum RSI 56, MACD bullish | +5 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +2 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.7% of price | -1 | |
| Relative Strength -6.3% vs benchmarks (3M) | -6 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 32.4, PEG 1.5 | -8 |
Net Factor Score: +41 — Strongly bullish factor profile. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs LLY outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -1.4% | -8.0% | +12.2% |
| Healthcare (XLV) | +0.8% | -8.8% | +14.3% |
| Pharma (XPH) | +8.7% | -2.2% | +8.4% |
LLY 3-month return: -1.9% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability LLY stock closes higher?
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Drug Manufacturers - General (10 peers)Is LLY cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 10 Drug Manufacturers - General peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ LLY vs. Its Closest PeersHow does LLY compare to NVO and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Drug Manufacturers - General from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files LLY beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | LLY (this report) | NVO | JNJ | ABBV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1,054.9B | $171.4B | $653.6B | $467.1B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +47.7% | +2.1% | +6.6% | +10.2% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 32.4x | 1.7x | 23.5x | 18.8x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2028E CAGR) | 1.52 | — | 2.29 | 1.45 |
| Operating Margin | 54.2% | 42.5% | 29.2% | 40.0% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 13.9 | 16.0 | 16.6 | 18.7 |
NVO (Novo Nordisk A/S — closest business match), JNJ (Johnson & Johnson), ABBV (AbbVie Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could LLY go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $1348.69 | High Target: | $1500.00 |
| Current Price: | $1183.46 | Low Target: | $940.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +14.0% | Number of Analysts: | 31 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded LLY recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Sep 22, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on LLY?
Overall Score: 2.1/10 - Slightly Bullish
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- Eli Lilly Just Won FDA Approval for a Once Weekly Insulin and the Stock Is Knocking on $1,200
24/7 Wall St. • Sep 27The FDA just handed Eli Lilly a new diabetes approval, but the real debate is whether a once-weekly insulin needle moves the needle on a stock already...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/27/eli-lilly-just-wo... - Foundayo’s Early Growth Is Raising Lilly (LLY)’s Revenue Expectations. But Can It Outrun Pricing Pressure?
Insider Monkey • Sep 26Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) received a modest price target raise on September 18 from Guggenheim. The brokerage increased its target to $1,284 fr...
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/foundayo-early...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $1118.51 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
53%
Past Total Return
+131.3%
Max Drawdown
-11.4%
Avg Trade
+15.3%
Trades
17
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $1134.74 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
54%
Past Total Return
+135.3%
Max Drawdown
-9.4%
Avg Trade
+9.2%
Trades
24
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for LLY stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $1183.46 | Market Cap | $1054.9B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 52.9% (17 trades) | Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 32.4x |
| Past Total Return | +131.3% | Analyst Target | $1348.69 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 56 / 14 | Upside to Target | +14.0% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +47.7% |
| Profit Factor | 5.01 | Institutional Own. | 85.3% |
| Open Position | No open position | Analyst Ratings | 25 Buy / 4 Hold / 2 Sell |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the LLY rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a ACCUMULATE entry rating to LLY based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (56) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 14 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($32.48) indicates moderate volatility (2.7% of price), suggesting potential moves of 5.5%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 53% of the time across 17 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +15.3% per trade.
Firing now — EMA Trend Alignment (2).
Not firing: Valid Breakout, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger. Not determinable from this run: RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 0/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 0/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | — |
This is why LLY can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 0/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ LLY — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $1183.46 | Volume | 1.9M |
| Avg Volume | 2.6M | Beta | 0.50 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $1162.30 | EMA 50 | $1162.18 |
| EMA 200 | $1067.95 | VWAP | $1178.10 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 13.88 | Distance from EMA 20 | +1.8% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 55.76 | MACD | -2.81 |
| MACD Signal | -8.59 | MACD Histogram | 5.78 |
| Stochastic %K | 71.37 | Stochastic %D | 68.48 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $1190.39 | Bollinger Middle | $1150.81 |
| Bollinger Lower | $1111.23 | Band Position | 91.2% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $32.48 | ATR as % of price | 2.7% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days) | Trade Signal | None in the last 30 days |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1054.9B | Revenue | $79.7B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 32.4 | Revenue Growth | +47.7% |
| Trailing P/E | 39.7 | Gross Margin | 83.4% |
| Price/Sales | 13.24 | Operating Margin | 54.2% |
| Price/Book | 31.14 | Profit Margin | 33.5% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2028E CAGR) | 1.52 | ROE | 102.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $1100.8B | Free Cash Flow | $11.1B |
| EPS (Forward) | $36.58 | Dividend Yield | 0.58% |
| 52-Week Range | $716.08 - $1292.65 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-27 | 2022-01-20 | $239.07 | $233.10 | -2.50% | Loss |
| 2022-03-07 | 2022-04-07 | $251.89 | $296.94 | +17.88% | Win |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-08-09 | $314.54 | $292.71 | -6.94% | Loss |
| 2022-09-29 | 2024-03-04 | $319.82 | $778.92 | +143.55% | Win |
| 2024-05-21 | 2024-08-02 | $790.97 | $792.24 | +0.16% | Win |
| 2024-08-13 | 2024-11-05 | $894.26 | $794.93 | -11.11% | Loss |
| 2024-11-18 | 2025-04-01 | $718.35 | $796.80 | +10.92% | Win |
| 2025-04-29 | 2025-05-07 | $875.93 | $768.59 | -12.25% | Loss |
| 2025-11-03 | 2026-06-08 | $890.91 | $1147.51 | +28.80% | Win |
| 2026-06-26 | 2026-09-11 | $1206.39 | $1115.70 | -7.52% | Loss |
Summary: 17 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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