Linde plc (LIN) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs LIN a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Excellent business · model timing: buy · rating WAIT: needs a close above $520.29 on rising volume. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open LIN Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on LIN stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 3/7 (last setup 2026-10-06, 10d ago)
Why: LIN carries a WAIT rating because valuation and fundamentals remain attractive (Investment Quality 81/100), but trend strength is still emerging (ADX 22), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 3/7). A breakout above $520.29 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $497.54 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 4.14:1 to the analyst target $563.45, against a stop at $482.74.
- Model timing: GOLD · TIMING BUY.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x volatility ATR stop sits at $371.76, 25.4% below the current $498.43, fixed at the 2025-12-08 entry.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +9.3% YoY with a 28.1% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 27.9x.
- Wall Street: average target $563.45 (+13.0%) from 23 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $497.54 (-0.2%), nearest resistance $520.29 (+4.4%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — CONSTRUCTIVE
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on LIN?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: HOLD — Thesis intact, but no edge in adding here.
If you don't: WAIT — Needs a break above $520.29 on rising volume.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$498.43
Buy Stop Loss
$482.74
Distance: 3%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (position)
$478.60
Distance: 4%
trailing chandelier, as of the last close
ATR 14 Day
$7.85
Volatility
ADX Strength
21.9
Emerging trend
Adaptive position +8.3% - past its graduation level, so the stop now trails a chandelier off the 22-day high.
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does LIN's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is GOLD · TIMING BUY and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Excellent business, decent entry. LIN clears 58 on both the business and the entry price.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving LIN's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +11.3% YoY | +14 | |
| Profitability Margin 20%, ROE 18% | +10 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 22 | +8 | |
| Revenue Growth +9.3% YoY | +6 | |
| Momentum RSI 68, MACD momentum bullish | +5 | |
| Volatility ATR 1.6% of price | +1 | |
| Sentiment Neutral | +1 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 27.9, PEG 2.8 | +0 | |
| Relative Strength -5.4% vs S&P 500 (3M) | -5 |
Net Factor Score: +40 — Strongly bullish factor profile. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could LIN stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for LIN over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $549.44 (+10.2%)
If LIN reclaims the $520.29 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $549.44. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Basic Materials.
🔴 The Bear Case — $467.28 (-6.2%)
Failure to hold the $497.54 support level opens a slide toward $467.28 — a support level (-6.2% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $482.74 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 22 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $497.54 and $520.29 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying LIN now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on LIN right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $563.45; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $482.74. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model entry held since 2025-12-08 · +29.3% · against its own $371.76 stop, to TODAY's target — the model already holds a stronger cost basis than any new entry can get | $385.58 | $13.82 | $177.87 | 12.87:1 |
| Today at $498.43 | $498.43 | $15.69 | $65.02 | 4.14:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs LIN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Linde plc · Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs LIN outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +8.4% | -5.4% | -6.1% |
| Basic Materials (XLB) | +7.8% | -4.6% | +2.9% |
LIN 3-month return: -2.3% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability LIN stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 52% vs 52% · 5d 55% vs 57% · 20d 58% vs 59%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Chemicals - Specialty (17 peers)Is LIN cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 17 Chemicals - Specialty peers; "med" is the peer median.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded LIN recently?
2 rating changes in 90 days (2 initiations); 8 ratings reaffirmed (not listed).
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | INITIATED | Overweight | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Keybanc | INITIATED | Overweight | Sep 11, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on LIN?
Overall: Neutral · 1 bullish · 0 bearish · 10 neutral of 11 headlines (net score +0.6 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 1)
- AI Chip Demand Gives Linde a New Growth Catalyst
MarketBeat • Oct 06Linde TodayLINLinde$487.41 +5.03 (+1.04%) As of 10:44 AM Eastern This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.52-Week Range$387.7...
Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/ai-chip-demand-gives-lin...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is neutral, indicating balanced coverage without clear directional bias. This suggests market participants are waiting for catalysts or clearer signals. Monitor for changes in sentiment that could indicate emerging trends.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $385.58 on 2025-12-08
Confluence: 7/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $371.76 (fixed at entry)
A new entry today would stop at $482.74
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
41.7%
Past Total Return
+10.0%
Max Drawdown
-11.3%
Avg Trade
+2.9%
Trades
12
Adaptive Strategy
OPEN POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Entry: $460.40 on 2026-09-18
Confluence: 5/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $478.60 (trailing chandelier, as of the last close)
A new entry today would stop at $482.74
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
50.0%
Past Total Return
+25.0%
Max Drawdown
-9.3%
Avg Trade
+3.1%
Trades
18
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the LIN rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT entry rating to LIN based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (68) is currently showing strong momentum.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 22 indicates an emerging trend (20-25). News sentiment is neutral (Neutral).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($7.85) indicates moderate volatility (1.6% of price), suggesting potential moves of 3.1%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 5 of 12 historical trades (41.7%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +2.9% per trade.
Firing at the 2026-10-06 setup (10d ago) — Valid Breakout (3).
Not firing at the 2026-10-06 setup (10d ago): EMA Trend Alignment, RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 3/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 3/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✓ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why LIN can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 3/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ LIN — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $498.43 | Volume | 2.0M |
| Avg Volume | 2.1M (~$1.0B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 0.71 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $483.12 | EMA 50 | $482.77 |
| EMA 200 | $482.14 | VWAP | $497.77 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 21.88 | Distance from EMA 20 | +3.2% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 68.06 | MACD | 5.15 |
| MACD Signal | 2.58 | MACD Histogram | 2.57 |
| Stochastic %K | 89.88 | Stochastic %D | 90.57 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $501.39 | Bollinger Middle | $479.24 |
| Bollinger Lower | $457.08 | Band Position | 93.3% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $7.85 | ATR as % of price | 1.6% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 3/7 (last setup 2026-10-06, 10d ago) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | BUY (fired today) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $229.8B | Revenue | $35.4B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 27.9 | Revenue Growth | +9.3% |
| Trailing P/E | 32.2 | Gross Margin | 48.3% |
| Price/Sales | 6.48 | Operating Margin | 28.1% |
| Price/Book | 5.88 | Profit Margin | 20.4% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2028E CAGR) | 2.82 | ROE | 18.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $254.4B | Free Cash Flow | $4.2B |
| EPS (Forward) | $17.88 | Dividend Yield | 1.28% |
| 52-Week Range | $387.78 - $548.20 | Institutional Ownership | 88.7% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 | $385.58 | +29.27% | $371.76 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-15 | 2021-02-17 | $211.40 | $230.38 | +8.98% | Win |
| 2021-05-06 | 2021-06-25 | $275.10 | $265.56 | -3.47% | Loss |
| 2021-07-30 | 2021-10-05 | $286.31 | $278.34 | -2.78% | Loss |
| 2021-10-20 | 2022-01-25 | $290.86 | $294.05 | +1.10% | Win |
| 2022-02-24 | 2022-08-29 | $267.48 | $271.67 | +1.57% | Win |
| 2022-09-27 | 2023-05-01 | $251.63 | $355.82 | +41.41% | Win |
| 2023-12-12 | 2023-12-15 | $411.92 | $393.25 | -4.53% | Loss |
| 2024-02-05 | 2024-05-02 | $386.74 | $406.27 | +5.05% | Win |
| 2025-01-07 | 2025-04-08 | $405.44 | $405.21 | -0.06% | Loss |
| 2025-05-27 | 2025-10-28 | $458.76 | $436.79 | -4.79% | Loss |
Summary: 12 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed volatility ATR-based)
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