International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs IBM a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Average business · model timing: deep pullback · rating WAIT: the reward on offer does not yet justify the risk. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
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📊 Open IBM Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on IBM stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 4/7 (last setup 2026-10-08, 8d ago)
Why: IBM carries a WAIT rating because fundamentals are middling (Investment Quality 49/100), the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 12), relative strength has slipped over the past month and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 4/7). A breakout above $239.12 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $229.28 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 0.99:1 to the analyst target $244.58, against a stop at $219.55.
- Model timing: RED · DEEP PULLBACK · NO SETUP.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $6.30 below entry ($12.59–$18.89).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +1.1% YoY with a 16.5% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 18.9x.
- Wall Street: average target $244.58 (+5.4%) from 12 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $229.28 (-1.2%), nearest resistance $239.12 (+3.0%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — CONSTRUCTIVE
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on IBM?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: the model holds no position.
If you don't: WAIT — Reward:risk is 0.99:1 here.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$232.14
Buy Stop Loss
$219.55
Distance: 5%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (new entry)
$219.55
Distance: 5%
2.0x ATR · trails after +1R/+2R
ATR 14 Day
$6.30
Volatility
ADX Strength
11.8
Weak/No Trend
No adaptive position open. Adaptive rule: 2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending).
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does IBM's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · DEEP PULLBACK · NO SETUP and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
IBM: Investment Quality 49/100 vs. Entry Quality 52/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving IBM's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability Margin 16%, ROE 34% | +16 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 18.9, PEG 2.4 | +8 | |
| Relative Strength +6.7% vs S&P 500 (3M) | +7 | |
| Momentum RSI 54, MACD momentum bullish | +5 | |
| Revenue Growth +1.1% YoY | +1 | |
| Sentiment Neutral | +1 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.7% of price | -1 | |
| Earnings Growth -1.8% YoY | -2 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 12 | -5 |
Net Factor Score: +30 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could IBM stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for IBM over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $273.06 (+17.6%)
If IBM reclaims the $239.12 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $273.06. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Technology.
🔴 The Bear Case — $217.15 (-6.5%)
Failure to hold the $229.28 support level opens a slide toward $217.15 — a support level (-6.5% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $219.55 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 12 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $229.28 and $239.12 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying IBM now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on IBM right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $244.58; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $219.55. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today at $232.14 | $232.14 | $12.59 | $12.44 | 0.99:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs IBM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: International Business Machines Corporation · Technology · Information Technology Services. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs IBM outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -2.7% | +6.7% | -15.1% |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.0% | +5.2% | -26.2% |
IBM 3-month return: +9.8% · Leadership: BROAD LEADER — outperforming the market, its sector, and peers
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability IBM stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 52% vs 54% · 5d 53% vs 56% · 20d 53% vs 56%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Information Technology Services (18 peers)Is IBM cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 18 Information Technology Services peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ IBM vs. Its Closest PeersHow does IBM compare to ORCL and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Information Technology Services from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files IBM beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | IBM (this report) | ORCL | CTSH | FISV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $218.7B | $388.7B | $31.2B | $25.3B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +1.1% | +29.6% | +4.5% | — |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 18.9x | 15.8x | 11.5x | 6.6x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2028E CAGR) | 2.38 | 0.44 | — | 0.60 |
| Operating Margin | 16.5% | 35.6% | 17.5% | — |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 11.8 | 10.7 | 22.8 | 19.1 |
ORCL (Oracle Corporation), CTSH (Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation), FISV (Fiserv, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded IBM recently?
2 rating changes in 90 days (2 initiations); 12 ratings reaffirmed (not listed).
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | INITIATED | Hold | Oct 09, 2026 |
| Baird | INITIATED | Neutral | Jul 22, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on IBM?
Overall: Neutral · 9 bullish · 5 bearish · 28 neutral of 42 headlines (net score +0.7 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 9)
- IBM poised for modest third-quarter beat, says Bank of America
Proactive Investors • Oct 15Bank of America expects International Business Machines Corp (NYSE:IBM), the technology and consulting group, to deliver a modest third-quarter earnin...
Source: https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1100191... - Mulberry: WDAY Vastly Oversold; PLTR, NOW, IBM Strongholds in Software
Schwab Network • Oct 14Workday (WDAY) is vastly oversold, says Brian Mulberry of @ZacksInvestmentNews. He believes it and other key software peers are crucial as the scale o...
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3gP4qjfGQ4... - IBM and Siemens Collaborate on Research to Advance Nanostack Architecture
PRNewsWire • Oct 14Collaboration aims to accelerate development of the manufacturing and design capabilities needed for future nanostack generations ALBANY, N.Y., Oct. 1...
Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ibm-and-siemens-col... - DARPA Just Revealed the 2 Best Quantum Computing Stocks to Buy Now
The Motley Fool • Oct 13IonQ is the current leader in quantum computing accuracy. IBM is aggressively pursuing quantum computing....
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/13/darpa-just-reveale... - Zscaler Jumps 6% on Reaffirmed Revenue Outlook and IBM Security Pact; Palo Alto and CrowdStrike Gain 4%
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 09A reaffirmed revenue outlook and a fresh security partnership have pushed cybersecurity to the front of the market, and the group's leader is setting ...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/09/zscaler-jumps-6-o...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 5)
- IBM Has Paid Dividends Since 1916. Here's Why Retirees Should Pay Attention Now
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 15IBM has raised its dividend every year since 1916, but the raises have shrunk to a single penny while debt climbs and a weak quarter rattles investors...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/15/ibm-has-paid-divi... - IBM (IBM) Dips More Than Broader Market: What You Should Know
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 14IBM (IBM) concluded the recent trading session at $227.88, signifying a -1.26% move from its prior day's close....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3007523/ibm-ibm-dips-more-t... - IBM (IBM) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 14IBM (IBM) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the ke...
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3007043/ibm-ibm-earnings-ex... - IBM Slid 5% Without An Earnings Report - Oct. 21 May Change The Case
Seeking Alpha • Oct 11IBM remains a Buy despite a pullback and ongoing deal delays, with Q3 results on Oct. 21 as the next key catalyst. Delayed mainframe and software deal...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4953313-ibm-slid-5-percent-... - 11:11 Systems Acquires Select IBM VMware Cloud Service Provider Enterprise Customers
Business Wire • Oct 08FAIRFIELD, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- #1111systems--11:11 Systems (“11:11”), a leading managed infrastructure solutions provider, today announced it has ...
Source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261008398619/en/111...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is neutral, indicating balanced coverage without clear directional bias. This suggests market participants are waiting for catalysts or clearer signals. Monitor for changes in sentiment that could indicate emerging trends.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $219.55 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
38.1%
Past Total Return
+21.6%
Max Drawdown
-28.7%
Avg Trade
+1.9%
Trades
21
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $219.55 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
40.9%
Past Total Return
+31.4%
Max Drawdown
-28.7%
Avg Trade
+2.6%
Trades
22
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the IBM rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT entry rating to IBM based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (54) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 12 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Neutral).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($6.30) indicates moderate volatility (2.7% of price), suggesting potential moves of 5.4%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 8 of 21 historical trades (38.1%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +1.9% per trade.
Firing at the 2026-10-08 setup (8d ago) — RSI Bullish Divergence (2) · MACD Bullish Divergence (2).
Not firing at the 2026-10-08 setup (8d ago): Valid Breakout, EMA Trend Alignment, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 4/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 4/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why IBM can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 4/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ IBM — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $232.14 | Volume | 7.0M |
| Avg Volume | 6.3M (~$1.5B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 0.72 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $228.47 | EMA 50 | $231.88 |
| EMA 200 | $245.27 | VWAP | $233.12 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 11.75 | Distance from EMA 20 | +1.6% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 53.83 | MACD | -0.61 |
| MACD Signal | -1.99 | MACD Histogram | 1.37 |
| Stochastic %K | 78.35 | Stochastic %D | 73.35 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $235.80 | Bollinger Middle | $226.33 |
| Bollinger Lower | $216.85 | Band Position | 80.7% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $6.30 | ATR as % of price | 2.7% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 4/7 (last setup 2026-10-08, 8d ago) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | None in the last 30 days — a setup triggers a trade at 5/7 |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $218.7B | Revenue | $69.1B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 18.9 | Revenue Growth | +1.1% |
| Trailing P/E | 20.6 | Gross Margin | 58.1% |
| Price/Sales | 3.17 | Operating Margin | 16.5% |
| Price/Book | 6.35 | Profit Margin | 15.5% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2028E CAGR) | 2.38 | ROE | 34.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $275.9B | Free Cash Flow | $12.0B |
| EPS (Forward) | $12.31 | Dividend Yield | 2.91% |
| 52-Week Range | $199.19 - $332.46 | Institutional Ownership | 66.6% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-20 | 2023-01-30 | $111.37 | $118.85 | +6.71% | Win |
| 2023-06-01 | 2023-10-17 | $117.01 | $127.93 | +9.33% | Win |
| 2023-10-26 | 2024-04-25 | $131.06 | $157.16 | +19.91% | Win |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-10-15 | $165.40 | $220.82 | +33.51% | Win |
| 2024-10-30 | 2025-02-20 | $194.22 | $254.60 | +31.09% | Win |
| 2025-05-07 | 2025-08-01 | $243.67 | $242.08 | -0.65% | Loss |
| 2025-09-19 | 2026-02-05 | $259.65 | $284.10 | +9.42% | Win |
| 2026-05-21 | 2026-05-28 | $251.17 | $262.34 | +4.45% | Win |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-16 | $295.68 | $268.88 | -9.06% | Loss |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-17 | $215.52 | $211.16 | -2.03% | Loss |
Summary: 21 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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