The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs HD a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Average business · model timing: bullish, no fresh entry setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open HD Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on HD stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 4/7 (last setup 2026-10-01, 15d ago)
Why: HD carries a ACCUMULATE rating because fundamentals are middling (Investment Quality 48/100), the trend is strong (ADX 25), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 4/7). A breakout above $327.33 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $309.49 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 4.43:1 to the analyst target $370.10, against a stop at $295.97.
- Model timing: GREEN · BULLISH, NO FRESH ENTRY SETUP · BREAKOUT FADED.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x volatility ATR stop sits at $281.74, 9.0% below the current $309.63, fixed at the 2026-05-19 entry.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +5.7% YoY with a 12.9% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 20.6x.
- Wall Street: average target $370.10 (+19.5%) from 22 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $309.49 (-0.0%), nearest resistance $327.33 (+5.7%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — CONSTRUCTIVE
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on HD?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: HOLD — Thesis intact, but no edge in adding here.
If you don't: ACCUMULATE — Reward:risk improves from 4.43:1 today to 5.14:1 at $299.85.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$309.63
Buy Stop Loss
$295.97
Distance: 4%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (new entry)
$295.97
Distance: 4%
2.0x ATR · trails after +1R/+2R
ATR 14 Day
$6.83
Volatility
ADX Strength
25.0
Strong trend
No adaptive position open. Adaptive rule: 2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending).
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does HD's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is GREEN · BULLISH, NO FRESH ENTRY SETUP · BREAKOUT FADED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
HD: Investment Quality 48/100 vs. Entry Quality 47/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving HD's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability Margin 8%, ROE 104% | +16 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 20.6, PEG 2.8 | +8 | |
| Earnings Growth +4.6% YoY | +6 | |
| Momentum RSI 60, MACD momentum bullish | +5 | |
| Revenue Growth +5.7% YoY | +4 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +1 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.2% of price | +0 | |
| Relative Strength -9.5% vs S&P 500 (3M) | -9 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 25 | -12 |
Net Factor Score: +19 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could HD stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for HD over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $339.72 (+9.7%)
If HD reclaims the $327.33 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $339.72 — a resistance level. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Cyclical.
🔴 The Bear Case — $278.90 (-9.9%)
Failure to hold the $309.49 support level opens a slide toward $278.90 (-9.9% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $295.97 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 25 (strong trend), momentum suggests a directional move is imminent between $309.49 and $327.33 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying HD now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on HD right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $370.10; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $295.97. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model entry held since 2026-05-19 · +3.9% · against its own $281.74 stop, to TODAY's target — a fact, not a recommendation | $297.99 | $16.25 | $72.11 | 4.44:1 |
| Today at $309.63 | $309.63 | $13.66 | $60.47 | 4.43:1 |
| Preferred new entry accumulation zone $299.85–$305.85 · stop $286.19 | $299.85 | $13.66 | $70.25 | 5.14:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs HD stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: The Home Depot, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs HD outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +2.0% | -9.5% | -18.1% |
| Consumer Cyclical (XLY) | +1.2% | -4.7% | -3.8% |
| Retail (XRT) | -2.9% | -4.4% | -10.6% |
HD 3-month return: -6.3% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability HD stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 51% vs 52% · 5d 50% vs 52% · 20d 51% vs 53%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Consumer Cyclical (13 peers)Is HD cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 13 Consumer Cyclical peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ HD vs. Its Closest PeersHow does HD compare to LOW and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Home Improvement Retail from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files HD beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | HD (this report) | LOW | URI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $308.9B | $110.7B | $64.1B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +5.7% | +8.3% | +11.8% |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 20.6x | 16.1x | 20.8x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2029E CAGR) | 2.78 | 2.02 | 1.38 |
| Operating Margin | 12.9% | 13.4% | 26.0% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 25.0 | 22.7 | 13.8 |
LOW (Lowe's Companies, Inc. — closest business match), URI (United Rentals, Inc.). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded HD recently?
No rating changes in 90 days; 14 ratings reaffirmed.
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on HD?
Overall: Slightly Bullish · 6 bullish · 2 bearish · 15 neutral of 23 headlines (net score +1.1 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 6)
- Home Depot's Rising Average Ticket Offsets Softer Customer Visits
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 15HD's higher average ticket, resilient Pro demand and big-ticket sales growth support sales momentum despite softer traffic and housing-market pressure...
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3008859/home-depot-s-rising... - Home Depot (HD) Increases Despite Market Slip: Here's What You Need to Know
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 13In the most recent trading session, Home Depot (HD) closed at $294.07, indicating a +1.19% shift from the previous trading day....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3006438/home-depot-hd-incre... - Top 50 High-Quality Dividend Growth Stocks For October 2026
Seeking Alpha • Oct 11I track an investable universe of 50 high-quality dividend growth stocks to identify attractive entry points based on valuation and future return pote...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4953359-top-50-high-quality... - Strength Seen in Home Depot (HD): Can Its 3.4% Jump Turn into More Strength?
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 09Home Depot (HD) saw its shares surge in the last session with trading volume being higher than average. The latest trend in earnings estimate revision...
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3003470/strength-seen-in-ho... - Home Depot: A Sleeping Giant Waiting On Mortgage Rates
Seeking Alpha • Oct 09Home Depot is rated BUY, with its stock decline attributed to macro-driven housing market weakness, not company fundamentals. HD maintains solid funda...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952999-home-depot-a-sleepi...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 2)
- What the Latest Fed Decision Means for Costco, Walmart, Target, and Home Depot
The Motley Fool • Oct 16Inflation sits at 3.7% according to September's CPI, and more Fed rate hikes seem likely in 2026 and possibly into 2027. Higher interest rates could b...
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/16/what-the-latest-fe... - Home Depot and Lowe's Hit 52-Week Lows—But Analysts Aren't Giving Up
MarketBeat • Oct 11Surging home prices and an uptick in 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have kept the real estate market frozen while punishing homebuilders. But for home i...
Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/home-depot-and-lowes-hit...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $297.99 on 2026-05-19
Confluence: 6/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $281.74 (fixed at entry)
A new entry today would stop at $295.97
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
58.8%
Past Total Return
+35.5%
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Avg Trade
+7.1%
Trades
17
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $295.97 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
60.0%
Past Total Return
+38.4%
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Avg Trade
+6.3%
Trades
20
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the HD rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a ACCUMULATE entry rating to HD based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (60) is currently showing strong momentum.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 25 indicates a strong trend (25-50) supporting directional moves. News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($6.83) indicates moderate volatility (2.2% of price), suggesting potential moves of 4.4%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 10 of 17 historical trades (58.8%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +7.1% per trade.
Firing at the 2026-10-01 setup (15d ago) — High Volume (>1.5×) (1) · RSI Oversold (1).
Not firing at the 2026-10-01 setup (15d ago): Valid Breakout, EMA Trend Alignment, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), Below Lower Bollinger. Not determinable from this run: RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 4/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 4/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | — |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✓ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✓ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | — |
This is why HD can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 4/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ HD — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $309.63 | Volume | 7.0M |
| Avg Volume | 4.5M (~$1.4B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 1.00 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $297.11 | EMA 50 | $307.06 |
| EMA 200 | $328.49 | VWAP | $310.87 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 25.02 | Distance from EMA 20 | +4.2% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 60.26 | MACD | -2.42 |
| MACD Signal | -6.18 | MACD Histogram | 3.76 |
| Stochastic %K | 91.91 | Stochastic %D | 84.39 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $308.83 | Bollinger Middle | $292.51 |
| Bollinger Lower | $276.18 | Band Position | 102.5% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $6.83 | ATR as % of price | 2.2% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 4/7 (last setup 2026-10-01, 15d ago) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | None in the last 30 days — a setup triggers a trade at 5/7 |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $308.9B | Revenue | $169.2B |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 20.6 | Revenue Growth | +5.7% |
| Trailing P/E | 21.7 | Gross Margin | 32.8% |
| Price/Sales | 1.83 | Operating Margin | 12.9% |
| Price/Book | 18.60 | Profit Margin | 8.4% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2029E CAGR) | 2.78 | ROE | 104.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $370.0B | Free Cash Flow | $10.8B |
| EPS (Forward) | $15.00 | Dividend Yield | 3.01% |
| 52-Week Range | $277.15 - $397.63 | Institutional Ownership | 77.0% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | $297.99 | +3.91% | $281.74 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-24 | 2022-05-23 | $277.10 | $254.56 | -8.14% | Loss |
| 2022-07-25 | 2022-09-13 | $274.18 | $250.53 | -8.63% | Loss |
| 2023-01-06 | 2023-02-24 | $287.96 | $269.03 | -6.57% | Loss |
| 2023-05-16 | 2023-07-12 | $257.89 | $292.12 | +13.27% | Win |
| 2023-11-14 | 2024-01-19 | $281.13 | $337.81 | +20.16% | Win |
| 2024-06-21 | 2024-06-28 | $335.95 | $325.03 | -3.25% | Loss |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-12-30 | $368.93 | $371.88 | +0.80% | Win |
| 2025-01-23 | 2025-02-21 | $395.72 | $367.94 | -7.02% | Loss |
| 2025-03-13 | 2025-10-13 | $333.71 | $368.92 | +10.55% | Win |
| 2025-11-19 | 2026-03-09 | $325.29 | $346.05 | +6.38% | Win |
Summary: 17 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed volatility ATR-based)
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