The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs GS a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Excellent business · model timing: deep pullback · rating WAIT: needs a close above $931.00 on rising volume. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open GS Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on GS stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days)
Why: GS carries a WAIT rating because valuation and fundamentals remain attractive (Investment Quality 73/100), but the trend is strong (ADX 35), relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter and no fresh entry trigger has fired (Signal Strength 0/7). A breakout above $931.00 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $881.00 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: 3.69:1 to the analyst target $1,065.00, against a stop at $831.51.
- Model timing: RED · DEEP PULLBACK · NO SETUP.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $24.87 below entry ($49.75–$74.62).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +23.3% YoY with a 38.2% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 12.8x.
- Wall Street: average target $1,065.00 (+20.8%) from 8 Buy, 16 Hold, 2 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $881.00 (-0.0%), nearest resistance $931.00 (+5.6%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BELOW TREND
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on GS?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: the model holds no position.
If you don't: WAIT — Needs a break above $931.00 on rising volume.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$881.26
Buy Stop Loss
$831.51
Distance: 6%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (new entry)
$831.51
Distance: 6%
2.0x ATR · trails after +1R/+2R
ATR 14 Day
$24.87
Volatility
ADX Strength
34.8
Strong trend
No adaptive position open. Adaptive rule: 2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending).
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does GS's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is RED · DEEP PULLBACK · NO SETUP and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Excellent business, decent entry. GS clears 58 on both the business and the entry price.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving GS's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +38.8% YoY | +18 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 12.8, PEG 1.9 | +15 | |
| Profitability Margin 31%, ROE 18% | +15 | |
| Revenue Growth +23.3% YoY | +10 | |
| Momentum RSI 34, MACD momentum bullish | +5 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +3 | |
| Trend EMA mixed, ADX 35 | +0 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.8% of price | -2 | |
| Relative Strength -19.2% vs S&P 500 (3M) | -12 |
Net Factor Score: +52 — Strongly bullish factor profile. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could GS stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for GS over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $996.88 (+13.1%)
If GS reclaims the $931.00 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $996.88 — a resistance level. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Financial Services.
🔴 The Bear Case — $769.32 (-12.7%)
Failure to hold the $881.00 support level opens a slide toward $769.32 (-12.7% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $831.51 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 35 (strong trend), momentum suggests a directional move is imminent between $881.00 and $931.00 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying GS now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on GS right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $1,065.00; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $831.51. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today at $881.26 | $881.26 | $49.75 | $183.74 | 3.69:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs GS stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. · Financial Services · Capital Markets. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs GS outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -7.7% | -19.2% | -12.0% |
| Financial Services (XLF) | -7.1% | -15.5% | -10.6% |
| Broker-Dealers (IAI) | -3.7% | -10.0% | -2.7% |
GS 3-month return: -16.1% · Leadership: LAGGARD — trailing the S&P 500 and its sector
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability GS stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 51% vs 53% · 5d 49% vs 56% · 20d 50% vs 60%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Financial - Capital Markets (19 peers)Is GS cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 19 Financial - Capital Markets peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ GS vs. Its Closest PeersHow does GS compare to MS and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Capital Markets from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files GS beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | GS (this report) | MS | C | SCHW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $256.6B | $283.6B | $208.4B | $159.0B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +23.3% | +10.8% | +8.0% | +16.9% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 12.8x | 14.1x | 11.0x | 14.2x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2029E CAGR) | 1.88 | 1.65 | 0.86 | 0.70 |
| Operating Margin | 38.2% | 39.9% | 34.1% | 52.7% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 34.8 | 40.8 | 22.9 | 33.4 |
MS (Morgan Stanley — closest business match), C (Citigroup Inc.), SCHW (The Charles Schwab Corporation). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded GS recently?
2 rating changes in 90 days (1 upgrade, 1 initiation); 11 ratings reaffirmed (not listed).
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | INITIATED | Buy | Oct 08, 2026 |
| HSBC | UPGRADE | Reduce → Hold | Jul 21, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on GS?
Overall: Slightly Bullish · 20 bullish · 3 bearish · 19 neutral of 42 headlines (net score +3.0 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 20)
- Goldman Sachs: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors
The Motley Fool • Oct 16Goldman Sachs generated third-quarter net revenues of $18.7 billion. Financing activities represented over 40% of trading revenues year-to-date....
Source: https://www.fool.com/earnings/takeaways/2026/10/16/goldman-s... - Jim Cramer reveals his favourite post-earnings bank stocks
Invezz • Oct 14Influential investor Jim Cramer is sticking with Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) after their Q3 earnings prompted contrasting reactions on Wa...
Source: https://invezz.com/news/2026/10/14/jim-cramer-reveals-his-fa... - GS Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Financing Growth and AI Risks
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 14Goldman Sachs' Q3 earnings beat estimates as financing and wealth revenues surged, but rising AI infrastructure costs and interest rates pose risks....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3007005/gs-q3-earnings-call... - Goldman Sachs Q3: The Business Deserves A Premium. The Stock Already Has One
Seeking Alpha • Oct 13The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. delivered robust Q3 results, with strong momentum in Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management. GS's 18.7% ...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4953934-goldman-sachs-q3-th... - Wall Street Lunch: Bank Earnings Nothing To Write Home About
Seeking Alpha • Oct 13JPMorgan Chase (JPM) missed earnings estimates for the first time in 17 quarters, with notable softness in commercial and investment banking results. ...
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4953903-wall-street-lunch-b...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 3)
- Why Great Earnings Are Being Punished Right Now
24/7 Wall Street • Oct 15ASML and Goldman Sachs just delivered blowout quarters and their stocks got punished anyway. Something in the market has shifted, and it has nothing t...
Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/15/why-great-earning... - Why Is Goldman Sachs Stock Falling Wednesday?
Benzinga • Oct 14Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) stock fell Wednesday despite strong third-quarter 2026 results, as hotter-than-expected inflation triggered a broa...
Source: https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color... - These Analysts Lower Their Forecasts On Goldman Sachs After Q3 Results
Benzinga • Oct 14The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc (NYSE:GS) on Tuesday reported upbeat earnings for the third quarter....
Source: https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/price-target/...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $831.51 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
40.0%
Past Total Return
+56.9%
Max Drawdown
-19.3%
Avg Trade
+11.9%
Trades
15
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $831.51 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
47.6%
Past Total Return
+28.0%
Max Drawdown
-17.4%
Avg Trade
+4.3%
Trades
21
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the GS rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT entry rating to GS based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (34) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 35 indicates a strong trend (25-50) supporting directional moves. News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($24.87) indicates moderate volatility (2.8% of price), suggesting potential moves of 5.6%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 6 of 15 historical trades (40.0%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +11.9% per trade.
Nothing is firing today — no setup on the checklist is currently triggered, which is a timing reading rather than a bearish call.
Not firing: Valid Breakout, EMA Trend Alignment, RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 0/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 0/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why GS can show a mixed trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 0/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ GS — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $881.26 | Volume | 2.4M |
| Avg Volume | 2.1M (~$1.8B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 1.28 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $910.56 | EMA 50 | $953.27 |
| EMA 200 | $935.18 | VWAP | $889.31 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 34.80 | Distance from EMA 20 | -3.2% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 34.33 | MACD | -26.17 |
| MACD Signal | -28.30 | MACD Histogram | 2.13 |
| Stochastic %K | 31.10 | Stochastic %D | 30.32 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $953.09 | Bollinger Middle | $906.45 |
| Bollinger Lower | $859.81 | Band Position | 23.0% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $24.87 | ATR as % of price | 2.8% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 0/7 (no confluence event in the last 30 days) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | None in the last 30 days — a setup triggers a trade at 5/7 |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $256.6B | Revenue | $71.0B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 12.8 | Revenue Growth | +23.3% |
| Trailing P/E | 12.7 | Gross Margin | N/A |
| Price/Sales | 3.61 | Operating Margin | 38.2% |
| Price/Book | 2.37 | Profit Margin | 31.2% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2026–FY2029E CAGR) | 1.88 | ROE | 17.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $105.7B | Free Cash Flow | $0.0B |
| EPS (Forward) | $69.06 | Dividend Yield | 2.27% |
| 52-Week Range | $743.11 - $1153.99 | Institutional Ownership | 75.7% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-05 | 2022-09-26 | $267.86 | $267.54 | -0.12% | Loss |
| 2022-10-13 | 2023-01-05 | $278.85 | $314.21 | +12.68% | Win |
| 2023-01-10 | 2023-03-15 | $326.64 | $287.40 | -12.01% | Loss |
| 2023-06-15 | 2023-06-26 | $315.14 | $289.75 | -8.06% | Loss |
| 2023-07-20 | 2023-08-18 | $325.46 | $301.41 | -7.39% | Loss |
| 2023-09-18 | 2023-09-26 | $321.12 | $302.88 | -5.68% | Loss |
| 2023-10-27 | 2024-12-02 | $271.16 | $581.17 | +114.32% | Win |
| 2025-01-15 | 2025-03-10 | $585.23 | $516.06 | -11.82% | Loss |
| 2025-05-13 | 2026-03-05 | $586.09 | $827.74 | +41.23% | Win |
| 2026-05-20 | 2026-10-01 | $973.04 | $896.67 | -7.85% | Loss |
Summary: 15 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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