Chevron Corporation (CVX) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs CVX a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Excellent business · model timing: watching for entry · rating WAIT: price is extended (4.2 volatility ATR above the 50-day EMA). Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open CVX Analysis ↗
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy, hold or wait on CVX stock today?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Signal Strength: 3/7 (last setup 2026-09-24, 22d ago)
Why: CVX carries a WAIT rating because valuation and fundamentals remain attractive (Investment Quality 79/100) and relative strength is positive versus the S&P 500, but trend strength is still emerging (ADX 21) and only a partial setup is building (Signal Strength 3/7). A breakout above $230.61 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $217.78 would mark deeper weakness.
- Reward:risk: <0.1:1 to the 52-week high $225.31, against a stop at $215.90.
- Model timing: GREEN · BULLISH, WATCHING FOR ENTRY · ARMED.
- Stop reference: 2-3x the 14-day ATR of $4.55 below entry ($9.09–$13.64).
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +53.5% YoY with a 21.9% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 13.0x.
- Wall Street: average target $217.79 (-3.2%) from 20 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $217.78 (-3.2%), nearest resistance $223.00 (-0.9%).
Price vs. its 50-day trend — EXTENDED
● fired ○ context, does not decide the badge
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on CVX?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: the model holds no position.
If you don't: WAIT — Price is extended: -0.1% from the 52-week high (extended within 3%); 4.2 volatility ATR above the 50-day EMA (extended above 2)
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$224.99
Buy Stop Loss
$215.90
Distance: 4%
Conservative 2.0x · new entry
Adaptive Stop (new entry)
$215.90
Distance: 4%
2.0x ATR · trails after +1R/+2R
ATR 14 Day
$4.55
Volatility
ADX Strength
21.3
Emerging trend
No adaptive position open. Adaptive rule: 2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending).
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does CVX's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is GREEN · BULLISH, WATCHING FOR ENTRY · ARMED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Excellent business, stretched entry. CVX scores well on fundamentals but price is extended or lacks a fresh trigger — better-priced entries typically appear on a pullback toward support.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving CVX's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +321.9% YoY | +18 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 13.0, PEG 0.0 | +15 | |
| Relative Strength +16.5% vs S&P 500 (3M) | +12 | |
| Revenue Growth +53.5% YoY | +10 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 21 | +8 | |
| Profitability Margin 10%, ROE 12% | +1 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +1 | |
| Volatility ATR 2.0% of price | +0 | |
| Momentum RSI 71, MACD momentum bullish | -1 |
Net Factor Score: +64 — Strongly bullish factor profile. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOSWhere could CVX stock go over the next 30-60 days?
Three paths for CVX over the next 30-60 days, built from its volatility and its support and resistance levels — levels to plan around, not a forecast.
The bull and bear prices are how far a typical 60-day move reaches: across the Top 50 since 2021, a rise of 6.5× ATR volatility and a fall of 4.5× each happened about 1 time in 4. They are not analyst targets; the 12-month analyst target is shown in the Investment Snapshot.
🟢 The Bull Case — $254.54 (+13.1%)
If CVX reclaims the $223.00 resistance level, a typical strong 60-day move carries it to $254.54. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Energy.
🔴 The Bear Case — $208.21 (-7.5%)
Failure to hold the $217.78 support level opens a slide toward $208.21 — a support level (-7.5% from current price). A new position would be stopped out at $215.90 on the way down.
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 21 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $217.78 and $223.00 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying CVX now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on CVX right now?
Reward is measured to the 52-week high $225.31; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $215.90. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today at $224.99 | $224.99 | $9.09 | $0.32 | <0.1:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs CVX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Chevron Corporation · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs CVX outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +6.0% | +16.5% | +16.5% |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.1% | +1.2% | -1.2% |
| Oil & Gas E&P (XOP) | +1.9% | +1.3% | -2.1% |
CVX 3-month return: +19.6% · Leadership: BROAD LEADER — outperforming the market, its sector, and peers
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability CVX stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 51% vs 54% · 5d 46% vs 56% · 20d 51% vs 60%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Energy (14 peers)Is CVX cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 14 Energy peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ CVX vs. Its Closest PeersHow does CVX compare to XOM and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Oil & Gas Integrated from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files CVX beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | CVX (this report) | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $441.3B | $736.0B |
| Revenue Growth (Qtr YoY) | +53.5% | +44.1% |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 13.0x | 14.4x |
| PEG Ratio | — | — |
| Operating Margin | 21.9% | 15.9% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 21.3 | 25.4 |
XOM (ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation — closest business match). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry, and no more than 20x larger or smaller. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded CVX recently?
No rating changes in 90 days; 15 ratings reaffirmed.
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on CVX?
Overall: Slightly Bullish · 10 bullish · 3 bearish · 23 neutral of 36 headlines (net score +1.3 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 10)
- What High Diesel Prices Mean for These 5 Energy Stocks
The Motley Fool • Oct 17Marathon Petroleum is the most direct beneficiary of elevated diesel crack spreads since refining is its entire business. Chevron and ExxonMobil both ...
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/17/what-high-diesel-p... - Chevron Corporation (CVX) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 15Chevron (CVX) is at a 52-week high, but can investors hope for more gains in the future? We take a look at the company's fundamentals for clues....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3008198/chevron-corporation... - Chevron (CVX) Increases Despite Market Slip: Here's What You Need to Know
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 13In the most recent trading session, Chevron (CVX) closed at $217.99, indicating a +1.39% shift from the previous trading day....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3006425/chevron-cvx-increas... - Chevron & Shell Lead U.S. Gulf Oil Production Recovery After Hurricane
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 13CVX and SHEL are leading the U.S. Gulf oil production recovery after Hurricane Isaias, restoring offshore operations as facilities report no storm dam...
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3006346/chevron-shell-lead-... - Best Income Stocks to Buy for October 13th
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 13DEC, NAVI and CVX made it to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) income stocks list on October 13, 2026....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/3005650/best-income-stocks-...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 3)
- Shell, Chevron, BP Pull Crews as Hurricane Isaias Barrels Toward Gulf Coast Refineries
Benzinga • Oct 09Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL), Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) and BP plc (NYSE:BP) have pulled workers off Gulf of Mexico platforms and shut in production as Hurric...
Source: https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62280322... - Shell, Chevron cut Gulf of Mexico output as Tropical Storm Isaias approaches
Reuters • Oct 07Shell and Chevron said on Wednesday they were curtailing offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Isaias approached the region....
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-chevron-cut-gu... - Chevron (CVX) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know
Zacks Investment Research • Oct 07Chevron (CVX) concluded the recent trading session at $205.19, signifying a -1.15% move from its prior day's close....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3002187/chevron-cvx-falls-m...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Both enter with a 2.0x ATR stop. Conservative keeps it fixed; Adaptive switches to a trailing chandelier once the trade is up +1R (choppy market) or +2R (trending).
Conservative Strategy
NO POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $215.90 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
66.7%
Past Total Return
+66.5%
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Avg Trade
+11.3%
Trades
15
Adaptive Strategy
NO POSITION2.0x ATR at entry, then a trailing chandelier after +1R (choppy) / +2R (trending)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $215.90 (2.0x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
75.0%
Past Total Return
+72.7%
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Avg Trade
+9.0%
Trades
20
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the CVX rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT entry rating to CVX based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (71) is currently showing strong momentum.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 21 indicates an emerging trend (20-25). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($4.55) indicates moderate volatility (2.0% of price), suggesting potential moves of 4.0%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return in 10 of 15 historical trades (66.7%) over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +11.3% per trade.
Firing at the 2026-09-24 setup (22d ago) — EMA Trend Alignment (2) · Strong Trend (ADX > 25) (1).
Not firing at the 2026-09-24 setup (22d ago): Valid Breakout, RSI Bullish Divergence, MACD Bullish Divergence, High Volume (>1.5×), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 3/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 3/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✓ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✗ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why CVX can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 3/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ CVX — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $224.99 | Volume | 8.7M |
| Avg Volume | 8.4M (~$1.9B/day · Highly liquid) | Beta | 0.52 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $212.45 | EMA 50 | $206.07 |
| EMA 200 | $187.32 | VWAP | $223.57 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 21.35 | Distance from EMA 20 | +5.9% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 70.84 | MACD | 4.04 |
| MACD Signal | 2.44 | MACD Histogram | 1.60 |
| Stochastic %K | 92.30 | Stochastic %D | 92.08 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $223.00 | Bollinger Middle | $209.61 |
| Bollinger Lower | $196.22 | Band Position | 107.4% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $4.55 | ATR as % of price | 2.0% |
| Signal | |||
| Last confluence setup | 3/7 (last setup 2026-09-24, 22d ago) | Trade trigger (buy/sell) | None in the last 30 days — a setup triggers a trade at 5/7 |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $441.3B | Revenue | $209.4B |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E) | 13.0 | Revenue Growth | +53.5% |
| Trailing P/E | 21.7 | Gross Margin | 44.3% |
| Price/Sales | 2.11 | Operating Margin | 21.9% |
| Price/Book | 2.32 | Profit Margin | 9.8% |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | ROE | 12.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $475.6B | Free Cash Flow | $21.9B |
| EPS (Forward) | $17.30 | Dividend Yield | 3.16% |
| 52-Week Range | $146.49 - $225.31 | Institutional Ownership | 71.2% (largest: Blackrock Inc.) |
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-17 | 2022-06-23 | $125.14 | $120.12 | -4.01% | Loss |
| 2022-07-06 | 2023-05-04 | $118.73 | $135.16 | +13.84% | Win |
| 2024-02-06 | 2024-03-15 | $135.79 | $140.16 | +3.21% | Win |
| 2024-11-14 | 2024-12-17 | $148.91 | $137.70 | -7.53% | Loss |
| 2024-12-17 | 2024-12-20 | $137.70 | $132.81 | -3.55% | Loss |
| 2025-01-16 | 2025-02-05 | $148.18 | $142.24 | -4.01% | Loss |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-09 | $134.69 | $137.28 | +1.92% | Win |
| 2025-06-17 | 2025-10-15 | $141.63 | $146.34 | +3.33% | Win |
| 2026-01-05 | 2026-05-12 | $159.40 | $182.67 | +14.60% | Win |
| 2026-07-22 | 2026-09-15 | $191.31 | $217.77 | +13.83% | Win |
Summary: 15 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
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