Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
📋 Investment SnapshotIs COST a buy right now? The 10-second read
Reason: Strong business, constructive setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is COST a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) reads WAIT for a new position and HOLD for an existing one (Signal Strength: 5/7 (last fired 2026-09-25, 7d ago)). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 44.5, Revenue Growth: +11.1%), while short-term technicals show a bearish trend (RSI: 51). Traders should watch for a breakout above $929.51 before entering new positions.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open COST Analysis ↗
⚡ QUICK DECISIONShould you buy, hold or wait on COST stock today?
- Reward:risk: 5.08:1 to the analyst target $1,079.70, against a stop at $889.35.
- Model timing: GOLD · TIMING BUY · TREND UNCONFIRMED.
- Stop loss: the Conservative fixed 2.0x ATR stop sits at $889.35, 3.4% below the current $920.65.
- Growth vs. valuation: revenue +11.1% YoY with a 4.0% operating margin, at a forward P/E of 40.4x.
- Wall Street: average target $1,079.70 (+17.3%) from 24 Buy, 13 Hold, 2 Sell ratings.
- Key levels: nearest support $909.05 (-1.3%), nearest resistance $929.51 (+1.0%).
💡 Why This Signal ExistsWhy does COST carry this rating?
COST carries a WAIT rating because the underlying business is solid (Investment Quality 64/100) and a confirmed bullish setup is in place (Signal Strength 5/7), but the trend is weak and consolidating (ADX 17) and relative strength has lagged the S&P 500 over the past quarter. A breakout above $929.51 on improving volume would upgrade the signal toward BUY; a break below $909.05 would mark deeper weakness.
🎯 CONSENSUS HUDWhat is the Wall Street analyst consensus on COST?
The call itself, and the readings behind it. Details read supportive / caution / headwind.
Action plan
If you own it: HOLD — Thesis intact, but no edge in adding here.
If you don't: WAIT — Needs a break above $929.51 on rising volume.
🎯 Intelligent Stop Loss Strategy
Current Price
$920.65
Buy Stop Loss
$889.35
Distance: 3%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$881.52
Distance: 4%
Hybrid 2.50x
ATR 14 Day
$15.65
Volatility
ADX Strength
13.0
Weak/No Trend
Position down -0% - Wider stops for recovery
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
🔮 FUTURE PRICE SCENARIOS (AI Forecast)Where could COST stock go over the next week?
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for COST over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 64%)
If COST reclaims the $929.51 resistance level, algorithmic targets shift to $1079.70. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Defensive.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 24%)
Failure to hold the $909.05 support level triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $871.04 liquidity zone (-5.4% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 13 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $909.05 and $929.51 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ RISK HUD — DEEP DIVEWhat are the biggest risks of buying COST now?
Five risk axes scored LOW / MODERATE / HIGH, then the mitigation that follows from them.
📊 BUY-SIDE HUDHow much COST should you own, and can you trade it at size?
Portfolio-management read: how much to own, what the historical edge is, and whether the position can be traded at size. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🎯 THE TWO VERDICTSShould you buy COST now, and should you hold it if you already own it?
Two questions, computed separately: the entry verdict never reads whether a position is open, and the position verdict never reads entry quality.
Price vs. its 50-day trend — BELOW TREND
Nothing fired. ○ context, does not decide the badge
📏 ENTRY MATHWhat is the reward-to-risk on COST right now?
Reward is measured to the analyst target $1,079.70; risk to the 2x ATR entry stop at $889.35. Both legs are pre-trade, so the ratio means the same thing whether or not the model is holding.
The target is the average of analyst price targets published in the last quarter (widening to the last year only if the quarter has none) — the same figure our live scanner uses. Other services poll a different set of analysts, so a target quoted elsewhere can sit a few percent either side of this one, and the reward leg moves with it.
| Entry at | Price | Risk | Reward | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model entry held since 2026-09-25 · -0.2% · against its own $891.31 stop, to TODAY's target — a fact, not a recommendation | $922.77 | $31.46 | $156.93 | 4.99:1 |
| Today at $920.65 | $920.65 | $31.30 | $159.05 | 5.08:1 |
Entry zones
📈 SELL-SIDE HUDIs COST stock overvalued or undervalued?
Research read: Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores. What the business is worth and where the Street stands. Details below read supportive / caution / headwind; grey is context, not a verdict.
🧭 Investment Quality vs. Entry QualityHow does COST's investment quality compare to its entry quality?
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how stretched the price is against its recent range. Entry Quality is a mean-reversion score — it marks a stock down for trading near the top of its range. It is not the model's timing call, which is GOLD · TIMING BUY · TREND UNCONFIRMED and appears in the Consensus HUD above.
Strong on both. COST pairs a solid business with a constructive setup.
🧮 Factor AttributionWhat is actually driving COST's rating?
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +15% YoY | +18 | |
| Revenue Growth +11% YoY | +7 | |
| Profitability Margin 3%, ROE 28% | +6 | |
| Momentum RSI 52, MACD bullish | +5 | |
| Sentiment Slightly Bullish | +2 | |
| Volatility ATR 1.7% of price | +1 | |
| Relative Strength -2.5% vs benchmarks (3M) | -3 | |
| Trend EMA bearish, ADX 17 | -5 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 40.4, PEG 4.3 | -11 |
Net Factor Score: +20 — Net bullish. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
🏆 Relative StrengthIs COST outperforming the S&P 500 and its sector?
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -1.7% | -5.7% | -27.0% |
| Consumer Defensive (XLP) | +4.4% | +0.7% | -8.7% |
COST 3-month return: -3.0% · Leadership: SECTOR LEADER, MARKET LAGGARD — leads its sector/peers but trails the S&P 500
🤖 ML ProbabilityWhat is the probability COST stock closes higher?
A random-forest classifier (scikit-learn RandomForestClassifier, 100 trees, depth 8) estimates the probability that price closes higher over each horizon — a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
1d 48% vs 53% · 5d 50% vs 58% · 20d 56% vs 61%
Walk-forward, out-of-sample, 1,533 predictions. This model has NOT beaten that baseline at any horizon here. Treat the probabilities above as weak evidence, not a forecast.
📊 Valuation & Fundamentals vs Consumer Defensive (13 peers)Is COST cheap or expensive versus its sector peers?
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 13 Consumer Defensive peers; "med" is the peer median.
⚔️ COST vs. Its Closest PeersHow does COST compare to WMT and its other closest peers?
The closest business match first, then the nearest by market cap within Discount Stores from the live sector screener. Industry classification alone is not enough — it files COST beside companies in a different line of business — so the direct competitor is seeded explicitly. Green marks the best reading in each row, red the worst.
| Metric | COST (this report) | WMT | TGT | DG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $408.1B | $827.2B | $70.9B | $26.2B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +11.1% | +5.9% | +5.3% | +5.2% |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 40.4x | 36.1x | 15.3x | 15.1x |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2031E CAGR) | 4.31 | 3.61 | — | 2.06 |
| Operating Margin | 4.0% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 13.0 | 11.0 | 36.2 | 13.2 |
WMT (Walmart Inc. — closest business match), TGT (Target Corporation), DG (Dollar General Corporation). Peers marked “closest business match” come from the curated rival map; the rest are the nearest by market cap in the same industry. ADX is shown where recent price data is already on file for that peer.
🎯 ANALYST PRICE TARGETSHow high could COST go? The full target range
| Average Target: | $1079.70 | High Target: | $1275.00 |
| Current Price: | $920.65 | Low Target: | $955.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +17.3% | Number of Analysts: | 39 |
🔔 ANALYST RATING CHANGESHave analysts upgraded or downgraded COST recently?
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | REITERATED | Sell → Sell | Sep 25, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | REITERATED | Sector Perform → Sector Perform | Sep 25, 2026 |
| BTIG | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | UPGRADE | Hold → Buy | Sep 08, 2026 |
| BTIG | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Sep 03, 2026 |
News Sentiment (14-Day)What is the latest news sentiment on COST?
Overall: Slightly Bullish · 21 bullish · 6 bearish · 17 neutral of 44 headlines (net score +2.3 on a −10 to +10 scale)
Headlines scored by Claude (Sonnet 5) for their impact on this stock.
Bullish Articles (Top 5 of 21)
- Costco's US Comp Sales Lead as Domestic Momentum Stays Strong
Zacks Investment Research • Sep 29Costco's U.S. comp sales rise 10.7% in Q4, as higher traffic, bigger tickets and resilient member spending power domestic momentum....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2997671/costco-s-us-comp-sa... - Costco's Sales Momentum Builds as Q4 Traffic and Ticket Rise
Zacks Investment Research • Sep 29Costco's Q4 sales momentum accelerates as higher traffic and ticket sizes fuel 9.4% comparable sales growth and strong digital gains....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2997607/costco-s-sales-mome... - Is Costco's Stock Overdue for a Big Rally?
The Motley Fool • Sep 28Costco's latest quarterly numbers showed strong double-digit growth for the fourth quarter. Its comparable growth rate was nearly 7%, even when exclud...
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/28/is-costco-s-stock-... - Argus Reaffirms “Buy” Rating for Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST)
Defense World • Sep 28Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST - Get Free Report)'s stock had its "buy" rating reaffirmed by stock analysts at Argus in a research note issued to inve...
Source: https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/09/28/argus-reaffirms-buy-... - Costco Earnings Ignite Case for Consumer Staples
ETF Trends • Sep 28Costco's fiscal year 2026 has officially concluded, and the retailing giant certainly closed out on a high note. Key Takeaways: Costco recently releas...
Source: https://www.etftrends.com/sector-investing-content-hub/costc...
Bearish Articles (Top 5 of 6)
- Costco's Underlying Sales Growth Has Slowed 3 Months in a Row. Its September Report Comes Oct. 7.
The Motley Fool • Oct 04Leaving out gas prices and currency, Costco's comparable sales growth slowed from 8% in May to 5.4% in August. Costco posts sales for September, the f...
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/04/costco-s-underlyin... - Memory Inflation Is Hitting Costco's Electronics Business, and It Triggered a $152 Million Charge
Benzinga • Sep 25Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) stock traded higher Friday after the company reported strong fourth-quarter results Thursday....
Source: https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color... - Costco Shares Slip After 11% Jump in Quarterly Sales
GuruFocus • Sep 25Costco Wholesale (COST) fell 0.49% in premarket after the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net sales up 11.2% to $93.9 billion and diluted earni...
Source: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9097143/costco-shares-slip-af... - Costco's Best Numbers Came With an Asterisk
Zacks Investment Research • Sep 25A premium valuation paired with a halving in membership fee growth sent shares lower....
Source: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2995938/costco-s-best-numbe... - These Analysts Cut Their Forecasts On Costco Following Q4 Results
Benzinga • Sep 25Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) on Thursday posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results....
Source: https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/price-target/...
📊 Sentiment Interpretation
The news sentiment is moderately bullish, showing generally positive coverage with some caution. Market perception appears favorable but not overwhelmingly positive. This neutral-to-positive sentiment suggests steady conditions without extreme optimism.
📊 Strategy Comparison: Conservative vs Adaptive
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Conservative Strategy
OPEN POSITIONFixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $922.77 on 2026-09-25
Confluence: 5/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $889.35
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
43%
Past Total Return
+21.3%
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Avg Trade
+3.3%
Trades
21
Adaptive Strategy
OPEN POSITIONAdaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $922.77 on 2026-09-25
Confluence: 5/7 (on the entry bar)
Stop Loss: $897.17
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
44%
Past Total Return
+26.6%
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Avg Trade
+2.3%
Trades
25
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Essential MetricsWhat are the key metrics for COST stock?
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $920.65 | Market Cap | $408.1B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 42.9% (21 trades) | Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 40.4x |
| Past Total Return | +21.3% | Analyst Target | $1079.70 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 51 / 13 | Upside to Target | +17.3% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +11.1% |
| Profit Factor | 2.76 | Institutional Own. | 74.4% |
| Position Entry | 2026-09-25 @ $922.77 | Analyst Ratings | 24 Buy / 13 Hold / 2 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | -0.2% |
🤖 ALGORITHMIC CONVICTION & METHODOLOGYHow is the COST rating calculated?
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT entry rating to COST based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
- Technical Momentum: The RSI (51) is currently in neutral range.
- Trend Strength: ADX at 13 indicates weak/consolidating conditions (<20). News sentiment is neutral (Slightly Bullish).
- Volatility Profile: The ATR ($15.65) indicates moderate volatility (1.7% of price), suggesting potential moves of 3.4%+ on breakouts.
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 43% of the time across 21 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +3.3% per trade.
Firing now — RSI Bullish Divergence (2) · MACD Bullish Divergence (2) · High Volume (>1.5×) (1).
Not firing: Valid Breakout, EMA Trend Alignment, Strong Trend (ADX > 25), RSI Oversold, Below Lower Bollinger, Volume Accumulation.
📊 How the score works — the full checklist, what each signal means, and why 5/7 can read low in an uptrend
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 5/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✗ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✗ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✓ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✗ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✓ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
This is why COST can show a bearish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 5/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
❓ COST — Common Questions
— 5 answers, each drawn from the figures above
Every answer below is generated from the same figures as the report above, as of the data date on the cover.
📊 APPENDIX A - Complete Technical Indicators
Comprehensive technical data for quantitative analysis, grouped by what each indicator measures. Price leads; the three Bollinger bands sit together with the band position that reads them.
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price & Volume | |||
| Current Price | $920.65 | Volume | 2.0M |
| Avg Volume | 2.1M | Beta | 0.85 |
| Trend | |||
| EMA 20 | $915.13 | EMA 50 | $927.67 |
| EMA 200 | $949.53 | VWAP | $917.16 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 13.02 | Distance from EMA 20 | +0.6% |
| Momentum | |||
| RSI (14) | 51.38 | MACD | -4.06 |
| MACD Signal | -7.45 | MACD Histogram | 3.39 |
| Stochastic %K | 67.12 | Stochastic %D | 70.79 |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ) | |||
| Bollinger Upper | $928.72 | Bollinger Middle | $907.71 |
| Bollinger Lower | $886.70 | Band Position | 80.8% (0% = lower band, 100% = upper) |
| Volatility | |||
| ATR (14) | $15.65 | ATR as % of price | 1.7% |
| Signal | |||
| Confluence Score | 5/7 (last fired 2026-09-25, 7d ago) | Trade Signal | BUY — fired 2026-09-25 (7d ago) |
💼 APPENDIX B - Complete Fundamental Metrics
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $408.1B | Revenue | $303.2B |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 40.4 | Revenue Growth | +11.1% |
| Trailing P/E | 44.5 | Gross Margin | 12.8% |
| Price/Sales | 1.35 | Operating Margin | 4.0% |
| Price/Book | 11.40 | Profit Margin | 3.0% |
| PEG Ratio (FY2027–FY2031E CAGR) | 4.31 | ROE | 28.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $395.4B | Free Cash Flow | $7.1B |
| EPS (Forward) | $22.80 | Dividend Yield | 0.64% |
| 52-Week Range | $844.06 - $1096.50 | ||
📈 APPENDIX C - Complete Trade History & Backtest Results
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
Backtest Performance Metrics
Current Open Position
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | $922.77 | -0.23% | $891.31 |
Recent Trade History (Last 10 Trades)
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-20 | 2023-12-27 | $437.47 | $656.59 | +50.09% | Win |
| 2024-03-07 | 2024-03-12 | $774.70 | $726.66 | -6.20% | Loss |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-09 | $874.79 | $875.96 | +0.13% | Win |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-09-13 | $793.11 | $906.04 | +14.24% | Win |
| 2024-11-08 | 2025-01-15 | $934.77 | $914.67 | -2.15% | Loss |
| 2025-01-21 | 2025-03-14 | $938.67 | $896.27 | -4.52% | Loss |
| 2025-05-30 | 2025-06-17 | $1032.72 | $970.70 | -6.00% | Loss |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026-02-17 | $952.55 | $1008.98 | +5.92% | Win |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $1027.14 | $981.76 | -4.42% | Loss |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $1092.58 | $1001.34 | -8.35% | Loss |
Summary: 21 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
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